ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

What is ger current latitude?

5pm



Location: 25.4°N 61.1°W

Moving: WNW at 13 mph

[HurricaneFrances04]

Jesus, Flo has become quite impressive in the past 24 hours. Based on current reports and pressure drops, I wonder if we could see an 880ish-890ish millibar reading before she finishes peaking.

I think a sub-900 pressure would be historic for any storm in Florence's location?

[tallywx]

Rather than Wilmington-Topsail Beach, a landfall near Morehead City-Ocracoke looks to be in line. A track toward this area would keep the most significant rain and wind to the east of Raleigh-Durham, over a much more sparsely populated area with less infrastructure, relatively speaking (except Rocky Mount-Wilson-Greenville). The fact that Florence has clearly turned earlier than expected and is N of the short-term forecast points likely takes the worst-case scenario(s) out of play, fortunately. The Caribbean disturbance and weak upper low to the WNW of Florence, along with Florence's rapid deepening, are producing a sufficient weakness to nudge the track toward the consensus models and GEFS/GFS vs. the SW-biased EPS/ECMWF. This is very good news in terms of impacts based on population density and property values.

Hopefully, but I think it is too early in the change in latitude to think the worst case scenario is potentially off the table..especially given the fact she has strengthened sooner and stronger than previously forecast

Not off the table but a slightly hopeful sign based on how the consensus track has shifted due to the slightly weaker ridge, perhaps induced in part by the Caribbean disturbance strengthening more than expected. Micromanaging to be sure, but 30 miles of nudge is critical given population patterns.

[ronyan]

Jesus, Flo has become quite impressive in the past 24 hours. Based on current reports and pressure drops, I wonder if we could see an 880ish-890ish millibar reading before she finishes peaking.

I think a sub-900 pressure would be historic for any storm in Florence's location?

I don't think that's realistic but 910s maybe possible.

[Chris90]

Jesus, Flo has become quite impressive in the past 24 hours. Based on current reports and pressure drops, I wonder if we could see an 880ish-890ish millibar reading before she finishes peaking.

Considering only 2 ATL storms have made it below 890, and both of them did it in the W.Carib, I very much doubt Flo will achieve that. My amateur guess is that the lowest Flo will possibly get to is somewhere between 915-920mb.

[Ubuntwo]

Rather than Wilmington-Topsail Beach, a landfall near Morehead City-Ocracoke looks to be in line. A track toward this area would keep the most significant rain and wind to the east of Raleigh-Durham, over a much more sparsely populated area with less infrastructure, relatively speaking (except Rocky Mount-Wilson-Greenville). The fact that Florence has clearly turned earlier than expected and is N of the short-term forecast points likely takes the worst-case scenario(s) out of play, fortunately. The Caribbean disturbance and weak upper low to the WNW of Florence, along with Florence's rapid deepening, are producing a sufficient weakness to nudge the track toward the consensus models and GEFS/GFS vs. the SW-biased EPS/ECMWF. This is very good news in terms of impacts based on population density and property values.

Hopefully, but I think it is too early in the change in latitude to think the worst case scenario is potentially off the table..especially given the fact she has strengthened sooner and stronger than previously forecast

Not off the table but a slightly hopeful sign based on how the consensus track has shifted due to the slightly weaker ridge, perhaps induced in part by the Caribbean disturbance strengthening more than expected. Micromanaging to be sure, but 30 miles of nudge is critical given population patterns.

A further east track also means less surge due to the geographic layout. Less funneling into the cape fear river

[eastcoastFL]

Looking pretty rough out there. This is from he buoy closest to Florence. Winds are gusting to 31kts now. Waves 11.5ft

[MacTavish]

Looks to me like the storm may be running into some undercutting mid level shear. Southeast side looking eroded.

[supercane4867]

Jesus, Flo has become quite impressive in the past 24 hours. Based on current reports and pressure drops, I wonder if we could see an 880ish-890ish millibar reading before she finishes peaking.

Considering only 2 ATL storms have made it below 890, and both of them did it in the W.Carib, I very much doubt Flo will achieve that. My amateur guess is that the lowest Flo will possibly get to is somewhere between 915-920mb.

The strongest ATL storm outside of GOM and Caribbean besides Irma is likely Isabel. Officially listed as 915mb/145kt but satellite presentation and comparative analysis with other storms at similar location support 910mb/155kt. Florence still has a quite long way to go.

[Blinhart]

Looks to me like the storm may be running into some undercutting mid level shear. Southeast side looking eroded.

Are you looking at the same storm as the rest of us???

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks to me like the storm may be running into some undercutting mid level shear. Southeast side looking eroded.

Are you looking at the same storm as the rest of us???

That was funny

[Syx6sic]

Stores here in Norfolk are packed and everything is being sold out quick guess people are starting to take this serious now before here in Norfolk everyone always waited till watch’s and warning were posted

[Hurricaneman]

Looks to me like the storm may be running into some undercutting mid level shear. Southeast side looking eroded.

Not really shear but some dry air but it still looks like a go

[sbcc]

Looks to me like the storm may be running into some undercutting mid level shear. Southeast side looking eroded.

Are you looking at the same storm as the rest of us???

There are a few storms to choose from today.

[cycloneye]

1. HURRICANE FLORENCE
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 12/0000Z A. 11/2330Z,12/0530Z
B. NOAA9 0806A FLORENCE B. AFXXX 0906A FLORENCE
C. 11/1730Z C. 11/2030Z
D. NA D. 27.8N 67.9W
E. NA E. 11/2300Z TO 12/0530Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 49 FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 71
A. 12/1200Z A. 12/1130Z,1730Z
B. NOAA9 1006A FLORENCE B. AFXXX 1106A FLORENCE
C. 12/0530Z C. 12/0900Z
D. NA D. 29.5N 71.0W
E. NA E. 12/1100Z TO 12/1730Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. BEGIN 3-HRLY FIXES ON FLORENCE AT 12/2030Z.
B. NOAA 49 G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND
FLORENCE FOR 13/0000Z DEPARTING KLAL AT 12/1730Z.

[Ubuntwo]

[MacTavish]

Looks to me like the storm may be running into some undercutting mid level shear. Southeast side looking eroded.

Are you looking at the same storm as the rest of us???

The core is definitely oblong to the the north and northeast quad looking at the IR loop. Warm cloud tops pushed up against the southern eyewall. As someone else stated it could be dry air too.

[Blinhart]

The inflow of the storm surge will be felt all the way up to Long Island, so no matter what there will be a lot of people feeling the surge from this storm, so saying a change of 30 or 40 miles to the North will be a better situation.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks to me like the storm may be running into some undercutting mid level shear. Southeast side looking eroded.

I see what you're seeing, the relatively dry slot south of the southern eyewall, and banding in the southeast quadrant looks a little more blotchy, as opposed the more fanned-out appearance in the other quadrants. Doesn't seem too substantial, and I suspect it will be gone in the next 12 hours or so, but it does seem to be causing Florence to level off or at least slow down the intensification phase.

[1900hurricane]

Maybe some early hints now, but hard to tell with a partial pass.