meriland29 wrote:What is ger current latitude?
5pm
Location: 25.4°N 61.1°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Moderator: S2k Moderators
meriland29 wrote:What is ger current latitude?
johngaltfla wrote:Jesus, Flo has become quite impressive in the past 24 hours. Based on current reports and pressure drops, I wonder if we could see an 880ish-890ish millibar reading before she finishes peaking.
meriland29 wrote:Shell Mound wrote:Rather than Wilmington-Topsail Beach, a landfall near Morehead City-Ocracoke looks to be in line. A track toward this area would keep the most significant rain and wind to the east of Raleigh-Durham, over a much more sparsely populated area with less infrastructure, relatively speaking (except Rocky Mount-Wilson-Greenville). The fact that Florence has clearly turned earlier than expected and is N of the short-term forecast points likely takes the worst-case scenario(s) out of play, fortunately. The Caribbean disturbance and weak upper low to the WNW of Florence, along with Florence's rapid deepening, are producing a sufficient weakness to nudge the track toward the consensus models and GEFS/GFS vs. the SW-biased EPS/ECMWF. This is very good news in terms of impacts based on population density and property values.
Hopefully, but I think it is too early in the change in latitude to think the worst case scenario is potentially off the table..especially given the fact she has strengthened sooner and stronger than previously forecast
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:johngaltfla wrote:Jesus, Flo has become quite impressive in the past 24 hours. Based on current reports and pressure drops, I wonder if we could see an 880ish-890ish millibar reading before she finishes peaking.
I think a sub-900 pressure would be historic for any storm in Florence's location?
johngaltfla wrote:Jesus, Flo has become quite impressive in the past 24 hours. Based on current reports and pressure drops, I wonder if we could see an 880ish-890ish millibar reading before she finishes peaking.
tallywx wrote:meriland29 wrote:Shell Mound wrote:Rather than Wilmington-Topsail Beach, a landfall near Morehead City-Ocracoke looks to be in line. A track toward this area would keep the most significant rain and wind to the east of Raleigh-Durham, over a much more sparsely populated area with less infrastructure, relatively speaking (except Rocky Mount-Wilson-Greenville). The fact that Florence has clearly turned earlier than expected and is N of the short-term forecast points likely takes the worst-case scenario(s) out of play, fortunately. The Caribbean disturbance and weak upper low to the WNW of Florence, along with Florence's rapid deepening, are producing a sufficient weakness to nudge the track toward the consensus models and GEFS/GFS vs. the SW-biased EPS/ECMWF. This is very good news in terms of impacts based on population density and property values.
Hopefully, but I think it is too early in the change in latitude to think the worst case scenario is potentially off the table..especially given the fact she has strengthened sooner and stronger than previously forecast
Not off the table but a slightly hopeful sign based on how the consensus track has shifted due to the slightly weaker ridge, perhaps induced in part by the Caribbean disturbance strengthening more than expected. Micromanaging to be sure, but 30 miles of nudge is critical given population patterns.
Chris90 wrote:johngaltfla wrote:Jesus, Flo has become quite impressive in the past 24 hours. Based on current reports and pressure drops, I wonder if we could see an 880ish-890ish millibar reading before she finishes peaking.
Considering only 2 ATL storms have made it below 890, and both of them did it in the W.Carib, I very much doubt Flo will achieve that. My amateur guess is that the lowest Flo will possibly get to is somewhere between 915-920mb.
MacTavish wrote:Looks to me like the storm may be running into some undercutting mid level shear. Southeast side looking eroded.
Blinhart wrote:MacTavish wrote:Looks to me like the storm may be running into some undercutting mid level shear. Southeast side looking eroded.
Are you looking at the same storm as the rest of us???
MacTavish wrote:Looks to me like the storm may be running into some undercutting mid level shear. Southeast side looking eroded.
Blinhart wrote:MacTavish wrote:Looks to me like the storm may be running into some undercutting mid level shear. Southeast side looking eroded.
Are you looking at the same storm as the rest of us???
Blinhart wrote:MacTavish wrote:Looks to me like the storm may be running into some undercutting mid level shear. Southeast side looking eroded.
Are you looking at the same storm as the rest of us???
Ubuntwo wrote:
MacTavish wrote:Looks to me like the storm may be running into some undercutting mid level shear. Southeast side looking eroded.
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