ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[tallywx]

918mb just off the coast at 75 hours. Looks like going east of moorehead to the outer banks for a possible landfall.

Too much poleward bias once it goes off the deep end pressure-wise.

[Steve]

I'm more looking at that H66 930mb on approach. The lowest of the super low high lattitude millibars...

Yeah. 930 ain’t good for a potentially closer to legit GFS run. Gotta hope for an ERC because there’s no reason it wouldn’t get to 925...

[AxaltaRacing24]

918mb just off the coast at 75 hours. Looks like going east of moorehead to the outer banks for a possible landfall.

http://wx.graphics/models/gfs_florence.png

Too much poleward bias once it goes off the deep end pressure-wise.

Yep. We have entered garbage time on this GFS run.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I expect convergence on Jacksonville NC as the landfall point based on model trends. ECMWF should come a little north and the next GFS run should come a little bit south. They will meet up in the middle. Malcom in the Middle.

[Raebie]

So it just freakin sits there??

[PandaCitrus]

At 90 hours it's basically stationary close to Cape Lookout.

[PandaCitrus]

99 hours still stationary near Cape Lookout. Jesus, There won't be any outer banks left if this verifies.

[Steve]

So it just freakin sits there??

It’s been determined to do that for a few days now. It’s the GFS but it’s midrange. NHC does slow it.

Obviously VA people need to watch this too. If you at least respect the GFS - certainly open for debate - you are on the north side of a Cat 4for a day. Looks like the GFs wants to drop latitude along the NC coast.

[PandaCitrus]

111 hours still stalled out near Cape Lookout. I believe we are going on near 36 hours of Outer Banks getting crushed.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Well that would be devastating if that happens...GFS sure is hung on this solution.

[hurricaneCW]

Gfs finally gets closer to the general consensus. A loop just offshore isn't impossible, hurricanes will often bounce off of land areas to maintain their strength but it's not likely.

Unfortunately I think the steering ridge will be strong enough to send her onshore prior to any stall or loop.
But even if she were to loop 50-100 miles offshore, there would still be tremendous coastal damage due to how long it sits there.

[Aric Dunn]

Well technically its a pretty good west shift for the first 84 hours... so a little more consensus ..

[PandaCitrus]

123 hours starts the loop back to Wilmington it appears.

[Hurricaneman]

Well that would be devastating if that happens...GFS sure is hung on this solution.

Looking at the ridge position on the GFS a slow SSW movement makes sense and how long it does this could be crucial to areas farther south

[Steve]

132 hours down on the SC coast (just south of the NC border) as it looks like a 2/3.

[Ptarmigan]

The GFS has 77 inches of rain off of North Carolina.
https://weather.us/model-charts/standar ... 1800z.html

[N2FSU]

Pretty dramatic SW shift with landfall (after brushing the OBX) back south around Myrtle Beach.

[tarheelprogrammer]

UKMET trended south.

[Steve]

Yeah. It’s at least 3.5 days of torment for NC. GFS is pretty much a doomsday scenario for the eastern 3rd of NC and northern SC.

[Aric Dunn]

cmc similar too gfs