ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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tallywx
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3381 Postby tallywx » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:53 pm

PandaCitrus wrote:918mb just off the coast at 75 hours. Looks like going east of moorehead to the outer banks for a possible landfall.


Too much poleward bias once it goes off the deep end pressure-wise.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3382 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:53 pm

shah83 wrote:I'm more looking at that H66 930mb on approach. The lowest of the super low high lattitude millibars...


Yeah. 930 ain’t good for a potentially closer to legit GFS run. Gotta hope for an ERC because there’s no reason it wouldn’t get to 925...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3383 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:55 pm

tallywx wrote:
PandaCitrus wrote:918mb just off the coast at 75 hours. Looks like going east of moorehead to the outer banks for a possible landfall.

http://wx.graphics/models/gfs_florence.png


Too much poleward bias once it goes off the deep end pressure-wise.

Yep. We have entered garbage time on this GFS run.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3384 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:56 pm

I expect convergence on Jacksonville NC as the landfall point based on model trends. ECMWF should come a little north and the next GFS run should come a little bit south. They will meet up in the middle. Malcom in the Middle.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3385 Postby Raebie » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:56 pm

So it just freakin sits there??
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3386 Postby PandaCitrus » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:00 pm

At 90 hours it's basically stationary close to Cape Lookout.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3387 Postby PandaCitrus » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:01 pm

99 hours still stationary near Cape Lookout. Jesus, There won't be any outer banks left if this verifies.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3388 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:01 pm

Raebie wrote:So it just freakin sits there??


It’s been determined to do that for a few days now. It’s the GFS but it’s midrange. NHC does slow it.

Obviously VA people need to watch this too. If you at least respect the GFS - certainly open for debate - you are on the north side of a Cat 4for a day. Looks like the GFs wants to drop latitude along the NC coast.
Last edited by Steve on Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3389 Postby PandaCitrus » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:05 pm

111 hours still stalled out near Cape Lookout. I believe we are going on near 36 hours of Outer Banks getting crushed.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3390 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:07 pm

Well that would be devastating if that happens...GFS sure is hung on this solution.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3391 Postby hurricaneCW » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:07 pm

Gfs finally gets closer to the general consensus. A loop just offshore isn't impossible, hurricanes will often bounce off of land areas to maintain their strength but it's not likely.

Unfortunately I think the steering ridge will be strong enough to send her onshore prior to any stall or loop.
But even if she were to loop 50-100 miles offshore, there would still be tremendous coastal damage due to how long it sits there.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3392 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:09 pm

Well technically its a pretty good west shift for the first 84 hours... so a little more consensus ..
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3393 Postby PandaCitrus » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:09 pm

123 hours starts the loop back to Wilmington it appears.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3394 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:09 pm

TheDreamTraveler wrote:Well that would be devastating if that happens...GFS sure is hung on this solution.

Looking at the ridge position on the GFS a slow SSW movement makes sense and how long it does this could be crucial to areas farther south
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3395 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:13 pm

132 hours down on the SC coast (just south of the NC border) as it looks like a 2/3.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3396 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:15 pm

The GFS has 77 inches of rain off of North Carolina.
https://weather.us/model-charts/standar ... 1800z.html

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3397 Postby N2FSU » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:19 pm

Pretty dramatic SW shift with landfall (after brushing the OBX) back south around Myrtle Beach.

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3398 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:20 pm

UKMET trended south.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3399 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:21 pm

Yeah. It’s at least 3.5 days of torment for NC. GFS is pretty much a doomsday scenario for the eastern 3rd of NC and northern SC.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3400 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:26 pm

cmc similar too gfs
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