ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3061 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:46 am

700mb, Flight-Level winds, obviously expanding out now.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3062 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:47 am

Just my opinion only, but just as I said yesterday, I think this will make landfall as a Cat 2 or Cat 3. But that is still an incredibly strong storm. So I hope everyone is prepared.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3063 Postby sponger » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:49 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:Just my opinion only, but just as I said yesterday, I think this will make landfall as a Cat 2 or Cat 3. But that is still an incredibly strong storm. So I hope everyone is prepared.


Seems more likely at this point, but with a Cat 4 surge.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3064 Postby WYNweather » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:49 am

panamatropicwatch wrote:
WYNweather wrote:Buoy 41002 today
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 10.2 ft

Watch Buoy station 41002 Yesterday at 10am was only 5.2

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41002



Was just looking at that buoy. It will be interesting to watch the readings. Almost in the direct path of Florence.



Been watching for a few days. There is one north " As of 13:10Z, 08/30/2018, the buoy at station 41048 has gone adrift. Data will be restored during our next service visit to this location."
The one to the south watched last night. #41047

Wind Direction (WDIR): W ( 260 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 27.2 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.85 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.10 in ( Rising Rapidly )
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3065 Postby OuterBanker » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:50 am

The only concern that I have now is if Flo is so powerful and has created it own environment that it's momentum allows for a more north track. I'm sure that the Mets here will tell me why that won't happen.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3066 Postby edu2703 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:50 am

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3067 Postby Mouton » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:50 am

sponger wrote:Guess we are getting ready to find out how seriously the NHC takes 2 Euro runs in a row. If they verified, TS watch would need to be issued all the way to Fernandina Beach FL. At the very least to Brunswick GA. Certainly Savannah is well in play.


If forward speed slows, or if the NHC thinks it will, you will probably be correct.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3068 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:52 am

sponger wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:Just my opinion only, but just as I said yesterday, I think this will make landfall as a Cat 2 or Cat 3. But that is still an incredibly strong storm. So I hope everyone is prepared.


Seems more likely at this point, but with a Cat 4 surge.


I agree. And a Cat 2 is still dangerous. And the flooding itself is going to be really really bad.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3069 Postby chaser1 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:52 am

Ken711 wrote:


Don't want to be anywhere close to Florence on a ship that's for sure.


First clue that your day is really gonna suck? The point when you lose your paddle while attempting to read a sea-salt encrusted altimeter, as your tandem kayak begins to crest yet another 83' wave. hashtag #peanutbutterandjellysandwichanyone :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3070 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:54 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:
sponger wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:Just my opinion only, but just as I said yesterday, I think this will make landfall as a Cat 2 or Cat 3. But that is still an incredibly strong storm. So I hope everyone is prepared.


Seems more likely at this point, but with a Cat 4 surge.


I agree. And a Cat 2 is still dangerous. And the flooding itself is going to be really really bad.

It depends on the exact location of initial landfall. If she makes landfall near Wilmington with faster foward speed it would likely remain a strong CAT3. If she stalls offshore and doesn't make the landfall until SC then it could weaken to a CAT1
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3071 Postby sponger » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:54 am

Mouton wrote:
sponger wrote:Guess we are getting ready to find out how seriously the NHC takes 2 Euro runs in a row. If they verified, TS watch would need to be issued all the way to Fernandina Beach FL. At the very least to Brunswick GA. Certainly Savannah is well in play.


If forward speed slows, or if the NHC thinks it will, you will probably be correct.


Looks like not biting yet! Lets see what the 2pm Euro brings.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3072 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:54 am

NHC 11 a.m. advisory has the NC/SC border as the landfall area for now. But this is very subject to change given the recent trends.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3073 Postby Bunkertor » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:56 am

WYNweather wrote:Buoy 41002 today
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 10.2 ft

Watch Buoy station 41002 Yesterday at 10am was only 5.2

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41002

84 F water temperature ? That is a hot day in summer for us :eek:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3074 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:56 am

chaser1 wrote:
Ken711 wrote:


Don't want to be anywhere close to Florence on a ship that's for sure.


First clue that your day is really gonna suck? The point when you lose your paddle while attempting to read a sea-salt encrusted altimeter, as your tandem kayak begins to crest yet another 83' wave. hashtag #peanutbutterandjellysandwichanyone :ggreen:


I think that report is a strong indicator that the surge is going to be at extreme levels.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3075 Postby Mouton » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:56 am

Slowing at 11am advisory but heading increased a few degrees to the north, heading NW now. Don't know what to make of that. Just about at 30 n latitude.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3076 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:57 am

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3077 Postby plasticup » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:57 am

northjaxpro wrote:NHC 11 a.m. advisory has the NC/SC border as the landfall area for now. But this is very subject to change given the recent trends.

And it keeps the center offshore for another day. Very small change in terms of mileage, but obviously a huge change in terms of effects.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3078 Postby Maryellen46 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:57 am

Did you all see the lady and her 3 little girls interviewed on MSNBC saying they are going to stay because most of her neighbors are staying because there’s “strength in numbers”?
This is starting to remind of that idiot who took her kids to the Sea Wall in Galveston the day Ike made landfall.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3079 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:58 am

NHC bit on the Euro's guidance although not as far of a SW drift.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3080 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:59 am

The exact location that the center comes onshore really doesn't matter at this point. The huge eye will cover parts of the entire southen NC/northern SC coastline as shown by HWRF. NC coast will likely recive major hurricane conditions whether it stalls offshore or not.

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