ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3861 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:40 am

FV3 landfall, perhaps

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3862 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:46 am

FV3-GFS mostly complete 12Z run. Very similar to the GFS.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3863 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:54 am

This is the FLORENCE model thread, please keep offtopic posts out as they will be removed. Thanks.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3864 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:04 pm

12z HWRF shows eyewall coming onshore at CAT4 strength

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3865 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:19 pm

UKMET coming stronger this run now. looks like borderline cat 4
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3866 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:21 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:UKMET coming stronger this run now. looks like borderline cat 4


Landfall where?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3867 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:22 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:UKMET coming stronger this run now. looks like borderline cat 4


Landfall where?


Cape Fear and then southwest into Myrtle Beach
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3868 Postby Ken711 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:24 pm

HMON 12Z close to HWRF landfall location.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3869 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:24 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:UKMET coming stronger this run now. looks like borderline cat 4


Landfall where?


Essentially the same location as the rest of the models. wilmington area.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3870 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:28 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:UKMET coming stronger this run now. looks like borderline cat 4


Landfall where?


Essentially the same location as the rest of the models. wilmington area.


No......no nononono. Come on late shifts. I see a few went NE of Wilmington that would help with surge, right?

Where is text output for UKMET?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3871 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:31 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Landfall where?


Essentially the same location as the rest of the models. wilmington area.


No......no nononono. Come on late shifts. I see a few went NE of Wilmington that would help with surge, right?

Where is text output for UKMET?


unfortunately, we are inside essentially the 48 hour time frame and models are pretty good. ONly small adjustments from here on out. like does it slow down earlier and stay off shore or later and come ashore.

essentially all you can hope for is wobble watching..
:(
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3872 Postby Ken711 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:33 pm

The models have possible landfall in the early morning hours Friday 3:00-6:00 AM. What are the tide times?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3873 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:36 pm

Ken711 wrote:The models have possible landfall in the early morning hours Friday 3:00-6:00 AM. What are the tide times?


Around 2 am in Wilmington.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3874 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:37 pm

ronjon wrote:
Ken711 wrote:The models have possible landfall in the early morning hours Friday 3:00-6:00 AM. What are the tide times?


High tide around 2 am in Wilmington.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3875 Postby jdjaguar » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:39 pm

Ken711 wrote:The models have possible landfall in the early morning hours Friday 3:00-6:00 AM. What are the tide times?

High Tide 1:38 am
Low Tide 8:15 am

for Wilmington NC
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3876 Postby Raebie » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:44 pm

Ken711 wrote:The models have possible landfall in the early morning hours Friday 3:00-6:00 AM. What are the tide times?


Cape Fear river in Wilmington will be at 1:38 AM.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3877 Postby Raebie » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:45 pm

Well there you have it...3 different answers. Lol.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3878 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:47 pm

12Z HWRF
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3879 Postby Vdogg » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:48 pm

CMC went with landfall and then due west and poof. All the models seem to have trended towards a landfall between Wilmington and southern OBX. Not seeing as pronounced of a bend back Southwest.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3880 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:53 pm

12Z Euro running
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