ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

[quote="GCANE"][/quote]

Topsail is ground zero for this one. Good luck to them

[Hurricane Andrew]

Outage Update - 2030z
North Carolina: 29,591
South Carolina: 2,597
Virgina: 1,809

Expect those numbers to rise rapidly over the next couple of hours as sustained TS winds move deeper inland, and eventually turn into hurricane force sustained winds.

[jasons2k]

Not concerned about 120 mph wind. Truck handles that fine.

Until something hits it.

I’d be more concerned about debris...

[wx98]

NHC took it down to 100 mph at 21z, recon flying through now

[invest man]

I just saw a stall then a slight wobble north bound. I know its just wobble watching but was there any models that depicted a stall completely? NHC says wnw at 5!

[MGC]

Moat or one huge dry slot wrapping around the eyewall? A stall over the gulfstream is a potential nightmare.....MGC

[NDG]

My estimate has Florence moving at 4.25 mph to be exact during the past 4 hours, by calculating the latest recon fix a few minutes ago to the previous recon fix 4 hours ago.

[ronjon]

Peak Gust at Cape Lookout 73 kts or 84 mph last hour.

3:40 pm NE ( 50 deg ) 73 kts

[edu2703]

5:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 13
Location: 33.7°N 76.2°W
Moving: WNW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 955 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

[Rail Dawg]

Ok in regards to getting swept off your feet by surge.

If you’re going to play this game there are deduction points for getting your rear kicked by surge, soaking your camera and filling your tightie-whities with sand.

Being on the edge is difficult no doubt.

But dangit don’t make us chasers look bad lol.

[supercane4867]

Pressure dropping slightly with no increase in windspeed, but hurricane force winds could be expanded again

[MacTavish]

Moat or one huge dry slot wrapping around the eyewall? A stall over the gulfstream is a potential nightmare.....MGC

Looks like the outer eyewall may be trying to complete the ERC and is choking off the inner one. or maybe more dry air.

[northjaxpro]

Actual track since 11 AM EDT:
11 AM 33.4, 75.5
Noon 33.5, 75.7
1 PM 33.6 75.9
2 PM 33.6 76.0
3 PM 33.6 76.1
4 PM 33.7 76.1


NHC Projected for 8 PM: 33.9 76.6
NHC Projected for 8 AM: 34.2 77.8

It looks like at 8 PM it should be close to 33.9 N but 76.6 will be tough. So, it will most likely verify east of the 8 PM projection.

Yeah it sure looks like Florence will stall out a bit farther off shore than anticipated. This is ominous news and she will have more time to feed from the Gulf Stream and posdibly strengthen a bit as well.

[edu2703]

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from south of South Santee River to Edisto Beach, South Carolina

[Rail Dawg]

Not concerned about 120 mph wind. Truck handles that fine.

Until something hits it.

I’d be more concerned about debris...

Good point.

I’ve taken a few hits over the years and found 120 mph is the max for being outside in a truck with no protection.

Anything above that it’s a parking lot garage for safety.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Flash Flood Warning just posted for Carteret county; 3-6" of rain already, with 3-6" more expected "this evening", and more "overnight and into Friday".

[edu2703]

[artist]

http://www.ebmcdn.net/webcast/flash/bog ... frame.html
The light poles on the pier are really rocking!

[Jevo]

Not concerned about 120 mph wind. Truck handles that fine.

Until something hits it.

I’d be more concerned about debris...

Jason hit the nail on the head

"It's not THAT the wind is blowing... it's WHAT the wind is blowing" -Ron White

[GTStorm]

Actual track since 11 AM EDT:
11 AM 33.4, 75.5
Noon 33.5, 75.7
1 PM 33.6 75.9
2 PM 33.6 76.0
3 PM 33.6 76.1
4 PM 33.7 76.1


NHC Projected for 8 PM: 33.9 76.6
NHC Projected for 8 AM: 34.2 77.8

It looks like at 8 PM it should be close to 33.9 N but 76.6 will be tough. So, it will most likely verify east of the 8 PM projection.

Yeah it sure looks like Florence will stall out a bit farther off shore than anticipated. This is ominous news and she will have more time to feed from the Gulf Stream and posdibly strengthen a bit as well.

And then go which way?