ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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xironman
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4061 Postby xironman » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:29 pm

[quote="GCANE"][/quote]

Topsail is ground zero for this one. Good luck to them
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4062 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:29 pm

Outage Update - 2030z
North Carolina: 29,591
South Carolina: 2,597
Virgina: 1,809

Expect those numbers to rise rapidly over the next couple of hours as sustained TS winds move deeper inland, and eventually turn into hurricane force sustained winds.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4063 Postby jasons2k » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:33 pm

Rail Dawg wrote:
Not concerned about 120 mph wind. Truck handles that fine.


Until something hits it.

I’d be more concerned about debris...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4064 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:34 pm

NHC took it down to 100 mph at 21z, recon flying through now
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4065 Postby invest man » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:34 pm

I just saw a stall then a slight wobble north bound. I know its just wobble watching but was there any models that depicted a stall completely? NHC says wnw at 5!
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4066 Postby MGC » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:35 pm

Moat or one huge dry slot wrapping around the eyewall? A stall over the gulfstream is a potential nightmare.....MGC
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4067 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:35 pm

My estimate has Florence moving at 4.25 mph to be exact during the past 4 hours, by calculating the latest recon fix a few minutes ago to the previous recon fix 4 hours ago.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4068 Postby ronjon » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:36 pm

Peak Gust at Cape Lookout 73 kts or 84 mph last hour.

3:40 pm NE ( 50 deg ) 73 kts
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4069 Postby edu2703 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:36 pm

5:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 13
Location: 33.7°N 76.2°W
Moving: WNW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 955 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4070 Postby Rail Dawg » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:36 pm

Ok in regards to getting swept off your feet by surge.

If you’re going to play this game there are deduction points for getting your rear kicked by surge, soaking your camera and filling your tightie-whities with sand.

Being on the edge is difficult no doubt.

But dangit don’t make us chasers look bad lol.
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Although I have been a hurricane forecaster since 1980 that only means I've been wrong lots of times.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4071 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:37 pm

Pressure dropping slightly with no increase in windspeed, but hurricane force winds could be expanded again
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4072 Postby MacTavish » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:38 pm

MGC wrote:Moat or one huge dry slot wrapping around the eyewall? A stall over the gulfstream is a potential nightmare.....MGC



Looks like the outer eyewall may be trying to complete the ERC and is choking off the inner one. or maybe more dry air.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4073 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:38 pm

LarryWx wrote:Actual track since 11 AM EDT:
11 AM 33.4, 75.5
Noon 33.5, 75.7
1 PM 33.6 75.9
2 PM 33.6 76.0
3 PM 33.6 76.1
4 PM 33.7 76.1


NHC Projected for 8 PM: 33.9 76.6
NHC Projected for 8 AM: 34.2 77.8

It looks like at 8 PM it should be close to 33.9 N but 76.6 will be tough. So, it will most likely verify east of the 8 PM projection.


Yeah it sure looks like Florence will stall out a bit farther off shore than anticipated. This is ominous news and she will have more time to feed from the Gulf Stream and posdibly strengthen a bit as well.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4074 Postby edu2703 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:39 pm

Image

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from south of South Santee River to Edisto Beach, South Carolina
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4075 Postby Rail Dawg » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:40 pm

jasons wrote:
Rail Dawg wrote:
Not concerned about 120 mph wind. Truck handles that fine.


Until something hits it.

I’d be more concerned about debris...



Good point.

I’ve taken a few hits over the years and found 120 mph is the max for being outside in a truck with no protection.

Anything above that it’s a parking lot garage for safety.
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Although I have been a hurricane forecaster since 1980 that only means I've been wrong lots of times.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4076 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:42 pm

Flash Flood Warning just posted for Carteret county; 3-6" of rain already, with 3-6" more expected "this evening", and more "overnight and into Friday".
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4077 Postby edu2703 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:42 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4078 Postby artist » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:42 pm

http://www.ebmcdn.net/webcast/flash/bog ... frame.html
The light poles on the pier are really rocking!
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4079 Postby Jevo » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:43 pm

jasons wrote:
Rail Dawg wrote:
Not concerned about 120 mph wind. Truck handles that fine.


Until something hits it.

I’d be more concerned about debris...


Jason hit the nail on the head

"It's not THAT the wind is blowing... it's WHAT the wind is blowing" -Ron White
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4080 Postby GTStorm » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:44 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Actual track since 11 AM EDT:
11 AM 33.4, 75.5
Noon 33.5, 75.7
1 PM 33.6 75.9
2 PM 33.6 76.0
3 PM 33.6 76.1
4 PM 33.7 76.1


NHC Projected for 8 PM: 33.9 76.6
NHC Projected for 8 AM: 34.2 77.8

It looks like at 8 PM it should be close to 33.9 N but 76.6 will be tough. So, it will most likely verify east of the 8 PM projection.


Yeah it sure looks like Florence will stall out a bit farther off shore than anticipated. This is ominous news and she will have more time to feed from the Gulf Stream and posdibly strengthen a bit as well.


And then go which way?
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