ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

[chaser1]

ADJ and raw T number are now 2.8 and 2.9

Wait? Dvorak 2.5 is essentially 35 knots right? If I'm not mistaken, isn't there an approx. 12 hour delay generally factored in for winds to catch up to increased T #'s? One would guess that even if a minimally weak west wind exists at the surface, that ASCAT should present a pretty good swath of solid 35 knot winds in the northern quad. Does make a decent argument for NHC to capably upgrade Kirk back to a T.S. at 11:00 but I highly doubt it. They'll probably air on the side of continuity, keep it a wave and raise short term reorganization percentages to 80%. Worse case, then deal with bypassing T.D. in the a.m. if convective banding along with morning visible satellite leave no alternative.

[Aric Dunn]

ADJ and raw T number are now 2.8 and 2.9

Wait? Dvorak 2.5 is essentially 35 knots right? If I'm not mistaken, isn't there an approx. 12 hour delay generally factored in for winds to catch up to increased T #'s? One would guess that even if a minimally weak west wind exists at the surface, that ASCAT should present a pretty good swath of solid 35 knot winds in the northern quad. Does make a decent argument for NHC to capably upgrade Kirk back to a T.S. at 11:00 but I highly doubt it. They'll probably air on the side of continuity, keep it a wave and raise short term reorganization percentages to 80%. Worse case, then deal with bypassing T.D. in the a.m. if convective banding along with morning visible satellite leave no alternative.

Well, ASCAT issues with heavy convection is one thing.. add in the forward motion and ASCAT is less useful then usual.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Probably doesn't rise to NHC standards yet.

[NDG]

[floridasun78]

nhc waiting for ASCAT show good ts wind round center

[Hammy]

Given the ASCAT shows what looks like half a storm essentially, it seems like the forward speed is still the biggest problem at the moment.

[Gustywind]

24/2345 UTC 10.2N 41.4W T2.0/2.0 KIRK

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

[Aric Dunn]

https://i.imgur.com/d8jVqRa.png

looks like plenty of evidence...

[brohavwx]

https://i.imgur.com/d8jVqRa.png

looks like plenty of evidence...

I would say so. Cloud tops looking cold, more banding ... even the BUOY 41041 near 200 miles to its NNW is showing signs of wind shift to more northerly, increased wind speeds, higher waves and slight drop in average pressure versus yesterday

[wxman57]

ASCAT still indicates a sharp wave axis.

[floridasun78]

wx say look like born here not thing look here their see here only strong storm leedward

[brohavwx]

ASCAT still indicates a sharp wave axis.

Wish they had another Scatterometer bird or two up there to give us more frequent passes. That's all we have east of us here in Barbados. The Buoys' have been going down too, so outside of the nice new GOES-16 we have little hard evidence out there. Of course, when it passes through or by us you guys get your 'hard' data then.

[AutoPenalti]

It’s definitely organizing but it’s going to encounter 25-30kts of shear ahead of it so I’d imagine this is it for now.

[chaser1]

ASCAT still indicates a sharp wave axis.

"Kirk to Enterprise, continue cloaking and evasive maneuvers"

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

The remnants of Kirk are located about 950 miles east of the
Windward Islands and are moving quickly westward at around 25 mph.
This system continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms, along with winds to near gale force in gusts on its
north side. However, satellite data indicate that the system still
lacks a closed circulation. This disturbance could redevelop into a
tropical cyclone during the next day or two before it moves
into an area of highly unfavorable upper-level winds while it
approaches the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward and
Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance as
gusty winds and locally heavy rains are likely over the next couple
of days even if the system does not redevelop into a tropical
cyclone. For more information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[tolakram]

COD Meso floater: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-02-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[SoupBone]

If he survives 40-50kts of shear that he's about to be blasted with, then he deserves to live. That's an impressive and massive wall of shear in his path.

[brohavwx]

If he survives 40-50kts of shear that he's about to be blasted with, then he deserves to live. That's an impressive and massive wall of shear in his path.

Is there anything written that says a cyclone cannot make its own way, so to speak ... as in, it affect the rest of the features around it even for hundreds or thousands of miles? I seem to recall that 'balance' was central to the 'whole' or major parts. It seems that the focus has been what the shear can do to Kirk and not what Kirk may do to the shear or what is causing it. With the exception of a nice new GOES-16 (still being calibrated a bit too) up there at 22K miles and a few Buoys way to the north, any ships getting out of the way, and an ASCAT pass or two that misses every other day or so. How much solid data do we have?

I'm still wondering what Kirk will do to the shear, because right now there seems to be no or little shear acting on it. SST's are hottest for this part of the Tropics and there is plenty moisture/convection just ahead (and SE of the us in the islands) that it could feed on shortly and said shear is acting on that area right now but still bursting with convection. My Lightning Detector is showing quite a bit of activity out there so vertical development is still happening ...

[brohavwx]

Yes there is shear evident just west of the islands - can see it over Grenada and St. Vincent & the Grenadines - but I have to be concerned about what happens before them and if that will get 'pushed aside' as a lot could happen between 'Kirk' and Barbados and even the islands, Trinidad & Tobago ... right now it looks like a caldron about to come to boil if that dry air is replaced with good moist stuff ahead ... but we'll see.