Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[ronjon]

Looks like the slower this thing organizes and moves (drifts) N-NW, the better opportunity to stay in the NE GOM as it appears the SE ridge moves or breaks down some which allows for a more N-NE movement. A little disconcerting were the ICON and Euro runs that showed a stalling and moving east in the northern GOM. Still a lot of uncertainty next 5-7 days. And good ole GFS develops nothing still.

[Nimbus]

There is still energy in the Pacific that is robbing the Caribbean, but I imagine we will have to look in the active forum soon since the models are beginning to converge on something near the northern gulf coast.

[NDG]

@BenNollWeather
Following Following @BenNollWeather
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The Gulf Coast will be on watch next week as the possibility for a tropical storm or hurricane exists.

The ECMWF ensemble suggests folks from Louisiana to Florida should pay attention to the forecast!

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1048165523198894080

[p1nheadlarry]

A lot of mid level vorticities rotating around the monsoonal gyre, including 97E.
Things usually take longer to consolidate with these big C.A. monsoonal lows and models always struggle with it, never fails. IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/hfB9AlR.gif

The westerly shear very evident

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located near Cabo Gracias a Dios on the eastern border of Honduras
and Nicaragua have become more concentrated during the past several
hours. Although strong winds aloft are located just to the north of
this system, the upper-level environment is expected to be conducive
enough to allow slow development, and a tropical depression could
form by late this weekend or early next week over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico while the system moves
slowly northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation,
this disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains primarily
to portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula during the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Dean4Storms]

I’m now perplexed that this isn’t an Invest yet.

no invest because low is weak now off coast and storm are not organizing yet nhc dont invest by models only their look sat pic other data we likely see invest sat or sunday like some here been saying

Not really, we've seen them tag waves over Africa as an Invest before they ever hit the water and based solely on model support. Pressures are Low down there, pretty much unanimous model support and lots of vorticity. Like I said, a bit perplexed.

[SFLcane]

For us in Florida as wxman57 has been stating this is not a threat thanks to the semi-permanent high pressure system parked of the southeast. For the gulfcoast look out if this thing finds a pocket of low shear sst's are plenty warm for a potent storm.

[cycloneye]

My estimated guess is that we will have the invest sometime today.

[gatorcane]

JMA sends this north to just south of Cuba:



GFS ensembles big bend of Florida and west coast with some crossing South Florida:

[HeeBGBz]

If this messes up my trip to Washington state next Friday, I will not be happy. The heat down here has been so endless. Temps in the 90's even into October. The gulf must be pretty hot sea temps.

[SFLcane]

Either way as the GFS ensembles show this could get close to the west coast of Florida and being a lob-sided system plenty of rain for now seems like a good bet for the peninsula.

[p1nheadlarry]

For us in Florida as wxman57 has been stating this is not a threat thanks to the semi-permanent high pressure system parked of the southeast. For the gulfcoast look out if this thing finds a pocket of low shear sst's are plenty warm for a potent storm.

Florida *peninsula

Also it seems the GFS and ECMWF are depicting a trough to dig and temporarily weaken the ridge; the GFS showing what looks to be a shortwave helping aid in height falls. I'd say nobody should keep their eyes off of it, but I know nobody here will be doing that anyways

[caneman]

For us in Florida as wxman57 has been stating this is not a threat thanks to the semi-permanent high pressure system parked of the southeast. For the gulfcoast look out if this thing finds a pocket of low shear sst's are plenty warm for a potent storm.

I highly doubt the above statement to be true. While it may be true for South Florida, it most certainly isnt true for West Florida or the Panhandle. As many as half of the model runs reflect a Tampa to Pensacola hit

[gatorcane]

Also with the westerly shear, wouldn’t be surprised if we see some center reformations further east so would lean towards the eastern side of the guidance (Eastern Gulf). We have seen this scenario playout countless times before with models having a west bias in these situations not to mention trying to eject systems from the Caribbean too quickly.

[caneman]

Also with the westerly shear, wouldn’t be surprised if we see some center reformations so would lean towards the eastern side of the guidance

Throw in climatology too and a 50% chance seems more than reasonable of a Florida strike

[NDG]

Continuing trend up from GFS ensemble members for cyclogenesis over the NW Caribbean.

[TheStormExpert]

For us in Florida as wxman57 has been stating this is not a threat thanks to the semi-permanent high pressure system parked of the southeast. For the gulfcoast look out if this thing finds a pocket of low shear sst's are plenty warm for a potent storm.

For the peninsula this is likely not a direct landfall threat, but I would not rule out a FL panhandle landfall. 06z GEFS Ensembles have trended right again and stronger, though you have to take into account that the GFS loves to break down ridges too much.

[Aric Dunn]

That would be the type of convection needed to change the upper flow fliw pattern.

Also enough convection to consolidate the large gyre

And lije Cycloneye just said.. I think we will get that invest today lol.

[robbielyn]

For us in Florida as wxman57 has been stating this is not a threat thanks to the semi-permanent high pressure system parked of the southeast. For the gulfcoast look out if this thing finds a pocket of low shear sst's are plenty warm for a potent storm.

For the peninsula this is likely not a direct landfall threat, but I would not rule out a FL panhandle landfall. 06z GEFS Ensembles have trended right again and stronger, though you have to take into account that the GFS loves to break down ridges too much.

Not only that we don't even have a LLC to give us any kind of certainty. It all depends on the speed and location of the developing LLC. So just having fun guessing for now. Both Bastardi(not my usual go to guy)and Wxman57 both think it is a n gulf coast landfall potential vs fl. And they are both longtime experts. But will keep tuned in to Storm2K for any changes once that LLC develops.

[SFLcane]

For us in Florida as wxman57 has been stating this is not a threat thanks to the semi-permanent high pressure system parked of the southeast. For the gulfcoast look out if this thing finds a pocket of low shear sst's are plenty warm for a potent storm.

For the peninsula this is likely not a direct landfall threat, but I would not rule out a FL panhandle landfall. 06z GEFS Ensembles have trended right again and stronger, though you have to take into account that the GFS loves to break down ridges too much.

I meant extreme southeast florida but yea panhandle sure this could come up your way. Lets get an invest first or a well established low level circulation.