ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

I wouldnt be surprised if the center has been pulled a little east under that convection thats blossoming like crazy.

[TheStormExpert]

I wouldnt be surprised if the center has been pulled a little east under that convection thats blossoming like crazy.

That's what I was thinking, it has that "look" of a storm that's ready to take off soon.

[Hurricaneman]

I wouldnt be surprised if the center has been pulled a little east under that convection thats blossoming like crazy.

That's what I was thinking, it has that "look" of a storm that's ready to take off soon.

Has the look of a future major hurricane

[KWT]

I wouldnt be surprised if the center has been pulled a little east under that convection thats blossoming like crazy.

Would be classic with a system forming in a sheared setup. Certainly convectively active and it wouldn't be all that surprising to see 45-50kts within one of those cells.

[TheStormExpert]

I wouldnt be surprised if the center has been pulled a little east under that convection thats blossoming like crazy.

That's what I was thinking, it has that "look" of a storm that's ready to take off soon.

Has the look of a future major hurricane

Yes, and with shear still being somewhat unfavorable makes it more ominous.

[TheStormExpert]

The NHC @11am is still only going with a peak of 70kts at landfall.

[HeeBGBz]

This is a tropical storm already, we might have Michael at 11AM

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Do6T7OmVsAAS857.jpg

Is that as intense as it looks with all the grey and black? I can't really tell. I'm a little antsy here in Biloxi. Wondering if we'll get sideswiped by the right turn.

FWIW My weather knees were hurting last night something fierce.

[northjaxpro]

I wouldnt be surprised if the center has been pulled a little east under that convection thats blossoming like crazy.

I am with you about this possibility.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1048951470035558401




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1048952613591552001

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1048951470035558401

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1048952613591552001

This is exactly what the GFS has been showing the last couple of days, after this happens TD14 will really start intensifying starting tomorrow morning.

[NDG]

This is what the GFS has been showing, in that intensification will start ramping up tomorrow morning as it consolidates off of the western tip of Cuba, then it will start feeling the effects of the western Atlantic 594dm ridge and start heading NNW until the ridge starts weakening on Tuesday.

[Dave C]

The NHC @11am is still only going with a peak of 70kts at landfall.

It will still have time over water so it may get stonger after that 80 mph plot.

[NDG]

So far the GFS is persistent in that TD 14 could be a hurricane as early as tomorrow morning.

[Dean4Storms]

Recon has left the building.

[Hurricaneman]

So far the GFS is persistent in that TD 14 could be a hurricane as early as tomorrow morning.

I wouldn’t be surprised

[Bocadude85]

Checking in from beautiful Cancun, the wind has been steadily increasing all day here on the beach, will be interesting to see how strong the winds get here.

[meriland29]

I keep seeing with every new model run that the GFS puts out, that the strength at landfall is getting significantly higher. It seems the NHC has acknowledged this and accepted it against its previous intensity graphs which showed a moderate TS at best yesterday..

[chaser1]

Incredible to see the explosive convection in light of the continuing shear. Nice "sucker hole" off to the east and in the middle of the overall CDO. Though, it certainly would be alarming if that point suddenly did become the dominant COC.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Starting to see upper level cloud tops fanning off on the west side. Looks like shear has decreased a lot

[robbielyn]

Incredible to see the explosive convection in light of the continuing shear. Nice "sucker hole" off to the east and in the middle of the overall CDO. Though, it certainly would be alarming if that point suddenly did become the dominant COC.

it wouldn't surprise one bit.