ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Fourteen- Discussion

#181 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Oct 07, 2018 9:47 am

I wouldnt be surprised if the center has been pulled a little east under that convection thats blossoming like crazy.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Fourteen- Discussion

#182 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Oct 07, 2018 9:52 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:I wouldnt be surprised if the center has been pulled a little east under that convection thats blossoming like crazy.

That's what I was thinking, it has that "look" of a storm that's ready to take off soon.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Fourteen- Discussion

#183 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Oct 07, 2018 9:54 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:I wouldnt be surprised if the center has been pulled a little east under that convection thats blossoming like crazy.

That's what I was thinking, it has that "look" of a storm that's ready to take off soon.

Has the look of a future major hurricane
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Fourteen- Discussion

#184 Postby KWT » Sun Oct 07, 2018 9:56 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:I wouldnt be surprised if the center has been pulled a little east under that convection thats blossoming like crazy.


Would be classic with a system forming in a sheared setup. Certainly convectively active and it wouldn't be all that surprising to see 45-50kts within one of those cells.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Fourteen- Discussion

#185 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Oct 07, 2018 9:58 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:I wouldnt be surprised if the center has been pulled a little east under that convection thats blossoming like crazy.

That's what I was thinking, it has that "look" of a storm that's ready to take off soon.

Has the look of a future major hurricane

Yes, and with shear still being somewhat unfavorable makes it more ominous.
:double:
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Fourteen- Discussion

#186 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Oct 07, 2018 9:59 am

The NHC @11am is still only going with a peak of 70kts at landfall.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Fourteen- Discussion

#187 Postby HeeBGBz » Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:04 am

ForexTidbits wrote:This is a tropical storm already, we might have Michael at 11AM

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Do6T7OmVsAAS857.jpg


Is that as intense as it looks with all the grey and black? I can't really tell. I'm a little antsy here in Biloxi. Wondering if we'll get sideswiped by the right turn.

FWIW My weather knees were hurting last night something fierce.

:rain:
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Fourteen- Discussion

#188 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:09 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:I wouldnt be surprised if the center has been pulled a little east under that convection thats blossoming like crazy.



I am with you about this possibility.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Fourteen- Discussion

#190 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:13 am



This is exactly what the GFS has been showing the last couple of days, after this happens TD14 will really start intensifying starting tomorrow morning.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Fourteen- Discussion

#191 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:16 am

This is what the GFS has been showing, in that intensification will start ramping up tomorrow morning as it consolidates off of the western tip of Cuba, then it will start feeling the effects of the western Atlantic 594dm ridge and start heading NNW until the ridge starts weakening on Tuesday.

Image
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Fourteen- Discussion

#192 Postby Dave C » Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:22 am

TheStormExpert wrote:The NHC @11am is still only going with a peak of 70kts at landfall.

It will still have time over water so it may get stonger after that 80 mph plot.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Fourteen- Discussion

#193 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:42 am

So far the GFS is persistent in that TD 14 could be a hurricane as early as tomorrow morning.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Fourteen- Discussion

#194 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:42 am

Recon has left the building.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Fourteen- Discussion

#195 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:52 am

NDG wrote:So far the GFS is persistent in that TD 14 could be a hurricane as early as tomorrow morning.

I wouldn’t be surprised
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Fourteen- Discussion

#196 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:54 am

Checking in from beautiful Cancun, the wind has been steadily increasing all day here on the beach, will be interesting to see how strong the winds get here.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Fourteen- Discussion

#197 Postby meriland29 » Sun Oct 07, 2018 11:26 am

I keep seeing with every new model run that the GFS puts out, that the strength at landfall is getting significantly higher. It seems the NHC has acknowledged this and accepted it against its previous intensity graphs which showed a moderate TS at best yesterday..
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Fourteen- Discussion

#198 Postby chaser1 » Sun Oct 07, 2018 11:41 am

Incredible to see the explosive convection in light of the continuing shear. Nice "sucker hole" off to the east and in the middle of the overall CDO. Though, it certainly would be alarming if that point suddenly did become the dominant COC.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Fourteen- Discussion

#199 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Oct 07, 2018 11:45 am

Starting to see upper level cloud tops fanning off on the west side. Looks like shear has decreased a lot
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Fourteen- Discussion

#200 Postby robbielyn » Sun Oct 07, 2018 11:46 am

chaser1 wrote:Incredible to see the explosive convection in light of the continuing shear. Nice "sucker hole" off to the east and in the middle of the overall CDO. Though, it certainly would be alarming if that point suddenly did become the dominant COC.

it wouldn't surprise one bit.
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