ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

I'm not sure that's another center, maybe a mid level circulation/vortex, pressure is much higher in this area.

[Shell Mound]

That’s pretty interesting, if anything that may explain the east shift from the Euro

I believe that the reconnaissance data from the latest pass came too late for the 00Z ECMWF to initialise.

[CrazyC83]

The new data would likely support a 55 kt intensity.

[chaser1]

Have the most recent recon pass suggested significant forward motion commencing?

[Aric Dunn]

The new data would likely support a 55 kt intensity.

well if we ever get the rest of the data lol

[chaser1]

The new data would likely support a 55 kt intensity.

well if we ever get the rest of the data lol

Recon pilot and on-board Met must be oblivious that I really need my beauty sleep

[HDGator]

The new data would likely support a 55 kt intensity.

well if we ever get the rest of the data lol

Recon pilot and on-board Met must be oblivious that I really need my beauty sleep

They're killing me here. Come on, just some numbers. Please.

[AutoPenalti]

That’s pretty interesting, if anything that may explain the east shift from the Euro

I believe that the reconnaissance data from the latest pass came too late for the 00Z ECMWF to initialise.

That’s true but I mean in terms of it’s future track. IF it actually turns out that recon found another center that’s not mid level.

[Hammy]

well if we ever get the rest of the data lol

Recon pilot and on-board Met must be oblivious that I really need my beauty sleep

They're killing me here. Come on, just some numbers. Please.

I'm practically laying on the F5 key at this point

[Shell Mound]

That’s pretty interesting, if anything that may explain the east shift from the Euro

I believe that the reconnaissance data from the latest pass came too late for the 00Z ECMWF to initialise.

That’s true but I mean in terms of it’s future track. If it actually turns out that recon found another center that’s not mid level.

The data still came in too late to affect the track and intensity on the 00Z ECMWF. The model was running several hours prior to the latest pass.

[Condor]

I prefer to look at real-time conditions rather than models, especially in the short term, and to compare (current, unfolding) observations and (model) forecasts, including verification. The 00Z HWRF convective fields show lopsided, bursting thunderstorm activity until about a day before landfall. You can see the "pulsing" pattern, frame by frame, over time. This kind of evolution does favour intensification, but gradual rather than exponential. Yet the HWRF pressure fields show much more rapid near-term deepening than the convective fields (based on large-scale environmental shear) would suggest. Currently, Michael is a disorganised system. Reconnaissance data confirm that the pressure has only dropped slightly since the last pass. The dynamical models suggest that the most rapid intensification may occur within a day of landfall, as northwesterly shear diminishes and a poleward, pre-frontal outflow channel expands. Until then, the shear fields on the models indicate that the system will struggle to achieve more than slow but steady intensification. The current convective pattern is consistent with a highly sheared, broad tropical storm of moderate intensity. A broad core and wind field suggest that Michael will struggle to intensify significantly, even as environmental conditions improve just before landfall.

I prefer to look at real-time conditions rather than models, especially in the short term, and to compare (current, unfolding) observations and (model) forecasts, including verification.

If that is the case then your whole statement contradicts how you asses the development. Your whole statement is based on future conditions which have yet to arise. Also if you look at the current conditions you will see a massive burst in convention and a eye that is starting to become more defined.

[HDGator]

73 kt FL peak and 60kt SFMR Surface Level Peak in last Recon data that I saw well Northeast of center of circulation. Guess I'm going to have to stay up for the pass back through the center.

[NDG]

Getting close to hurricane status already

[chaser1]

I prefer to look at real-time conditions rather than models, especially in the short term, and to compare (current, unfolding) observations and (model) forecasts, including verification. The 00Z HWRF convective fields show lopsided, bursting thunderstorm activity until about a day before landfall. You can see the "pulsing" pattern, frame by frame, over time. This kind of evolution does favour intensification, but gradual rather than exponential. Yet the HWRF pressure fields show much more rapid near-term deepening than the convective fields (based on large-scale environmental shear) would suggest. Currently, Michael is a disorganised system. Reconnaissance data confirm that the pressure has only dropped slightly since the last pass. The dynamical models suggest that the most rapid intensification may occur within a day of landfall, as northwesterly shear diminishes and a poleward, pre-frontal outflow channel expands. Until then, the shear fields on the models indicate that the system will struggle to achieve more than slow but steady intensification. The current convective pattern is consistent with a highly sheared, broad tropical storm of moderate intensity. A broad core and wind field suggest that Michael will struggle to intensify significantly, even as environmental conditions improve just before landfall.

I prefer to look at real-time conditions rather than models, especially in the short term, and to compare (current, unfolding) observations and (model) forecasts, including verification.

If that is the case then your whole statement contradicts how you asses the development. Your whole statement is based on future conditions which have yet to arise. Also if you look at the current conditions you will see a massive burst in convention and a eye that is starting to become more defined.

Alright, enough folks. Let's not get carried away by each person's opinions and perceptions.

Back to Michael.... I don't see any warm spot or appearance of an eye? I will admit though, that the overall CDO seems to certainly be expanding and likely extending west thus pulling the COC deeper within. I swear though, the only forward motion that I can detect is primarily to the west.

[Aric Dunn]

73 kt FL peak and 60kt SFMR Surface Level Peak in last Recon data that I saw well Northeast of center of circulation. Guess I'm going to have to stay up for the pass back through the center.

thats not far from the new center that likely has formed east of the first VDM.

[Condor]

73 kt FL peak and 60kt SFMR Surface Level Peak in last Recon data that I saw well Northeast of center of circulation. Guess I'm going to have to stay up for the pass back through the center.

Looking like 73 KT and 991mb

[chaser1]

73 kt FL peak and 60kt SFMR Surface Level Peak in last Recon data that I saw well Northeast of center of circulation. Guess I'm going to have to stay up for the pass back through the center.

thats not far from the new center that likely has formed east of the first VDM.

"east of" lol? Oh jeeeez, I must be sleepy (or punch drunk). If a further east COC has formed, then it must be damn near the middle of the expanding CDO because the entire envelope appears to be moving (or expanding) to the west.

[Aric Dunn]

73 kt FL peak and 60kt SFMR Surface Level Peak in last Recon data that I saw well Northeast of center of circulation. Guess I'm going to have to stay up for the pass back through the center.

thats not far from the new center that likely has formed east of the first VDM.

"east of" lol? Oh jeeeez, I must be sleepy (or punch drunk). If a further east COC has formed, then it must be damn near the middle of the expanding CDO because the entire envelope appears to be moving (or expanding) to the west.

yes see my post earlier or check the recon data.

[NDG]

73 kt FL peak and 60kt SFMR Surface Level Peak in last Recon data that I saw well Northeast of center of circulation. Guess I'm going to have to stay up for the pass back through the center.

thats not far from the new center that likely has formed east of the first VDM.

It may still take a little while for the new center to form, the circulation still looks elliptical shaped.
I think it may form to the NE later this morning.

[StruThiO]