ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#541 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:21 am

I'm not sure that's another center, maybe a mid level circulation/vortex, pressure is much higher in this area.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#542 Postby Shell Mound » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:25 am

AutoPenalti wrote:That’s pretty interesting, if anything that may explain the east shift from the Euro

I believe that the reconnaissance data from the latest pass came too late for the 00Z ECMWF to initialise.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#543 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:27 am

The new data would likely support a 55 kt intensity.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#544 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:29 am

Have the most recent recon pass suggested significant forward motion commencing?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#545 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:30 am

CrazyC83 wrote:The new data would likely support a 55 kt intensity.


well if we ever get the rest of the data lol
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#546 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:33 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:The new data would likely support a 55 kt intensity.


well if we ever get the rest of the data lol


Recon pilot and on-board Met must be oblivious that I really need my beauty sleep :roflmao:
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#547 Postby HDGator » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:34 am

chaser1 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:The new data would likely support a 55 kt intensity.


well if we ever get the rest of the data lol


Recon pilot and on-board Met must be oblivious that I really need my beauty sleep :roflmao:

They're killing me here. Come on, just some numbers. Please.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#548 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:36 am

Shell Mound wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:That’s pretty interesting, if anything that may explain the east shift from the Euro

I believe that the reconnaissance data from the latest pass came too late for the 00Z ECMWF to initialise.

That’s true but I mean in terms of it’s future track. IF it actually turns out that recon found another center that’s not mid level.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#549 Postby Hammy » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:36 am

HDGator wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
well if we ever get the rest of the data lol


Recon pilot and on-board Met must be oblivious that I really need my beauty sleep :roflmao:

They're killing me here. Come on, just some numbers. Please.


I'm practically laying on the F5 key at this point :lol:
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#550 Postby Shell Mound » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:37 am

AutoPenalti wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:That’s pretty interesting, if anything that may explain the east shift from the Euro

I believe that the reconnaissance data from the latest pass came too late for the 00Z ECMWF to initialise.

That’s true but I mean in terms of it’s future track. If it actually turns out that recon found another center that’s not mid level.

The data still came in too late to affect the track and intensity on the 00Z ECMWF. The model was running several hours prior to the latest pass.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#551 Postby Condor » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:40 am

Shell Mound wrote:I prefer to look at real-time conditions rather than models, especially in the short term, and to compare (current, unfolding) observations and (model) forecasts, including verification. The 00Z HWRF convective fields show lopsided, bursting thunderstorm activity until about a day before landfall. You can see the "pulsing" pattern, frame by frame, over time. This kind of evolution does favour intensification, but gradual rather than exponential. Yet the HWRF pressure fields show much more rapid near-term deepening than the convective fields (based on large-scale environmental shear) would suggest. Currently, Michael is a disorganised system. Reconnaissance data confirm that the pressure has only dropped slightly since the last pass. The dynamical models suggest that the most rapid intensification may occur within a day of landfall, as northwesterly shear diminishes and a poleward, pre-frontal outflow channel expands. Until then, the shear fields on the models indicate that the system will struggle to achieve more than slow but steady intensification. The current convective pattern is consistent with a highly sheared, broad tropical storm of moderate intensity. A broad core and wind field suggest that Michael will struggle to intensify significantly, even as environmental conditions improve just before landfall.


I prefer to look at real-time conditions rather than models, especially in the short term, and to compare (current, unfolding) observations and (model) forecasts, including verification.


If that is the case then your whole statement contradicts how you asses the development. Your whole statement is based on future conditions which have yet to arise. Also if you look at the current conditions you will see a massive burst in convention and a eye that is starting to become more defined.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#552 Postby HDGator » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:44 am

73 kt FL peak and 60kt SFMR Surface Level Peak in last Recon data that I saw well Northeast of center of circulation. Guess I'm going to have to stay up for the pass back through the center.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#553 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:46 am

Getting close to hurricane status already :double:
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#554 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:50 am

Condor wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:I prefer to look at real-time conditions rather than models, especially in the short term, and to compare (current, unfolding) observations and (model) forecasts, including verification. The 00Z HWRF convective fields show lopsided, bursting thunderstorm activity until about a day before landfall. You can see the "pulsing" pattern, frame by frame, over time. This kind of evolution does favour intensification, but gradual rather than exponential. Yet the HWRF pressure fields show much more rapid near-term deepening than the convective fields (based on large-scale environmental shear) would suggest. Currently, Michael is a disorganised system. Reconnaissance data confirm that the pressure has only dropped slightly since the last pass. The dynamical models suggest that the most rapid intensification may occur within a day of landfall, as northwesterly shear diminishes and a poleward, pre-frontal outflow channel expands. Until then, the shear fields on the models indicate that the system will struggle to achieve more than slow but steady intensification. The current convective pattern is consistent with a highly sheared, broad tropical storm of moderate intensity. A broad core and wind field suggest that Michael will struggle to intensify significantly, even as environmental conditions improve just before landfall.


I prefer to look at real-time conditions rather than models, especially in the short term, and to compare (current, unfolding) observations and (model) forecasts, including verification.


If that is the case then your whole statement contradicts how you asses the development. Your whole statement is based on future conditions which have yet to arise. Also if you look at the current conditions you will see a massive burst in convention and a eye that is starting to become more defined.


Alright, enough folks. Let's not get carried away by each person's opinions and perceptions.

Back to Michael.... I don't see any warm spot or appearance of an eye? I will admit though, that the overall CDO seems to certainly be expanding and likely extending west thus pulling the COC deeper within. I swear though, the only forward motion that I can detect is primarily to the west.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#555 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:51 am

HDGator wrote:73 kt FL peak and 60kt SFMR Surface Level Peak in last Recon data that I saw well Northeast of center of circulation. Guess I'm going to have to stay up for the pass back through the center.


thats not far from the new center that likely has formed east of the first VDM.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#556 Postby Condor » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:52 am

HDGator wrote:73 kt FL peak and 60kt SFMR Surface Level Peak in last Recon data that I saw well Northeast of center of circulation. Guess I'm going to have to stay up for the pass back through the center.


Looking like 73 KT and 991mb
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#557 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:54 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
HDGator wrote:73 kt FL peak and 60kt SFMR Surface Level Peak in last Recon data that I saw well Northeast of center of circulation. Guess I'm going to have to stay up for the pass back through the center.


thats not far from the new center that likely has formed east of the first VDM.


"east of" lol? Oh jeeeez, I must be sleepy (or punch drunk). If a further east COC has formed, then it must be damn near the middle of the expanding CDO because the entire envelope appears to be moving (or expanding) to the west.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#558 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:55 am

chaser1 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
HDGator wrote:73 kt FL peak and 60kt SFMR Surface Level Peak in last Recon data that I saw well Northeast of center of circulation. Guess I'm going to have to stay up for the pass back through the center.


thats not far from the new center that likely has formed east of the first VDM.


"east of" lol? Oh jeeeez, I must be sleepy (or punch drunk). If a further east COC has formed, then it must be damn near the middle of the expanding CDO because the entire envelope appears to be moving (or expanding) to the west.


yes see my post earlier or check the recon data.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#559 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:57 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
HDGator wrote:73 kt FL peak and 60kt SFMR Surface Level Peak in last Recon data that I saw well Northeast of center of circulation. Guess I'm going to have to stay up for the pass back through the center.


thats not far from the new center that likely has formed east of the first VDM.


It may still take a little while for the new center to form, the circulation still looks elliptical shaped.
I think it may form to the NE later this morning.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#560 Postby StruThiO » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:59 am

Image
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