ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JaxGator]

Have you guys ever seen an Atlantic storm at this latitude firing off such consistent -80-90*C cloud tops?

It's been awhile. Katrina is the closest example I can think of, but I'm not certain. Quite incredible what the intensification Michael is undergoing currently. In awe, but it's sickening all at once.

[bella_may]

Just note that if he does start to weaken before landfall, the storm surge won't. Think Katrina.

I live inland and Katrina left me without power for over a week. Even though it was only a cat 3 at landfall

[johngaltfla]

124 kts FL winds from recon!!! What!

Flagged or considered???

Unflagged.

Holy smokes. THAT is unreal and it looks like the pressure wants to drop more.

[northjaxpro]

Wow, he's making a run at Cat 4 based on satellite. Ridiculously cold cloud tops especially north of 25°.

Heck, at. this rate of intensification, Michael unfortunately may make a run at Cat 5 . Just incredible.what this cyclone is doing currently!

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1049801036880379906

[michelinj]

124 kts FL winds from recon!!! What!

Flagged or considered???

Unflagged.

Oh ok thank you

[drezee]

NOAA eye drop missed the center of the eye. That 955mb is suspect.

[xironman]

The northern GOM doesn't get too many major hits where a storm intensifies until landfall.

Yeah, but this one is accelerating into it rather than letting the continental air effect it.

[kevin mathis]

Fix: 26.45N & 86.38W

230600 2627N 08623W 7520 02101 9541 +190 +156 205025 028 030 000 00

Still a good western component to its northern movenent.

The 5 pm Michael was at 86.4....How is 86.23 a west component?

[KWT]

Wow that's hat 124kts is impressive, convection is so strong I wouldn't be all that surprised if the winds aren't much less than that near the surface given just how explosive the convection is.

[Taylormae]

I’m getting a wee bit nervous here too I’m Pensacola! This thing is WAY TOO close for comfort!

It’s almost hard to believe it’s going to turn and have minimal impacts on us. Working my nerves that’s for sure.

[jlauderdal]

True, and get your gas and supplies early like 6am, no lines

Live Storms Media has been doing live short feeds all day in the Panhandle. A new one shows the traffic nightmare in Crestview of vehicles trying to head north on Hwy 85.

https://bit.ly/2E9XOTQ

Is always mind boggling why people wait until the middle of the day to evacuate, if they would had left before sunrise they would had not encountered any traffic at all. This was the case all the time when I lived in Nola. If I lived there and I had not evacuated I would had planned to leave around 3 AM tonight and avoided all the traffic.

[otowntiger]

The northern GOM doesn't get too many major hits where a storm intensifies until landfall.

That’s what I’ve been saying- it is much more common for a storm like this to drop significantly just prior to landfall than to strengthen all the up to that point. If it does that it will be historic.

[1900hurricane]

It's been since either Matthew '16 or Joaquin '15 since I remember seeing a NAtl system fire off convection like this.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1049804610049900544

[meriland29]

Wow...



Y'all werent kidding about that 125kt winds....and it wasnt measured just one time either...quite a string of em.

[drezee]

Alright Storm2K, Michael just made a Fist. Huge tower wrapping fully around the eye wall. This is a precursor to deepening. It happened an hour before recon. Hold on to your seats to Cat 4....this is very bad

After the Fist, you always get a nice ring of intense convection. It will intensify until an EWRC. If it doesn't have one, then we are in trouble...

[MacTavish]

Fix: 26.45N & 86.38W

230600 2627N 08623W 7520 02101 9541 +190 +156 205025 028 030 000 00

Still a good western component to its northern movenent.

The 5 pm Michael was at 86.4....How is 86.23 a west component?

SSW wind on the drop, they missed the center to the east. Point is, its wobbling and there definitely isnt a pronounced eastward turn at all. Still moving around 355 degrees.

[robbielyn]

Fix: 26.45N & 86.38W

230600 2627N 08623W 7520 02101 9541 +190 +156 205025 028 030 000 00

Still a good western component to its northern movenent.

The 5 pm Michael was at 86.4....How is 86.23 a west component?

he probably means he is on the west side of 86 still. and it's 86.38 not 86.23

[meriland29]

If those levels prove true, he could possibly tickle a cat 5 tonight. That being said, the rampant IR leads me to thoughts of a EWRC as well

[xironman]

If those levels prove true, he could possibly tickle a cat 5 tonight. That being said, the rampant IR leads me to thoughts of a EWRC as well

I doubt it. The true eyewall is less than a day old.