ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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JaxGator
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2001 Postby JaxGator » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:29 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:Have you guys ever seen an Atlantic storm at this latitude firing off such consistent -80-90*C cloud tops?


It's been awhile. Katrina is the closest example I can think of, but I'm not certain. Quite incredible what the intensification Michael is undergoing currently. In awe, but it's sickening all at once.
Last edited by JaxGator on Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:48 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2002 Postby bella_may » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:30 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:Just note that if he does start to weaken before landfall, the storm surge won't. Think Katrina.

I live inland and Katrina left me without power for over a week. Even though it was only a cat 3 at landfall
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2003 Postby johngaltfla » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:30 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:
meriland29 wrote:
michelinj wrote:124 kts FL winds from recon!!! What!



Flagged or considered???


Unflagged.


Holy smokes. THAT is unreal and it looks like the pressure wants to drop more. :eek:
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2004 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:30 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:Wow, he's making a run at Cat 4 based on satellite. Ridiculously cold cloud tops especially north of 25°.


Heck, at. this rate of intensification, Michael unfortunately may make a run at Cat 5 . Just incredible.what this cyclone is doing currently!
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2005 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:31 pm

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2006 Postby michelinj » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:31 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:
meriland29 wrote:
michelinj wrote:124 kts FL winds from recon!!! What!



Flagged or considered???


Unflagged.


Oh ok thank you
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2007 Postby drezee » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:31 pm

NOAA eye drop missed the center of the eye. That 955mb is suspect.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2008 Postby xironman » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:31 pm

RL3AO wrote:The northern GOM doesn't get too many major hits where a storm intensifies until landfall.


Yeah, but this one is accelerating into it rather than letting the continental air effect it.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2009 Postby kevin mathis » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:32 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:
NDG wrote:Fix: 26.45N & 86.38W

230600 2627N 08623W 7520 02101 9541 +190 +156 205025 028 030 000 00


Still a good western component to its northern movenent.


The 5 pm Michael was at 86.4....How is 86.23 a west component?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2010 Postby KWT » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:32 pm

Wow that's hat 124kts is impressive, convection is so strong I wouldn't be all that surprised if the winds aren't much less than that near the surface given just how explosive the convection is.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2011 Postby Taylormae » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:33 pm

I’m getting a wee bit nervous here too I’m Pensacola! This thing is WAY TOO close for comfort!

It’s almost hard to believe it’s going to turn and have minimal impacts on us. Working my nerves that’s for sure.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2012 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:33 pm

True, and get your gas and supplies early like 6am, no lines
NDG wrote:
SeaBrz_FL wrote:Live Storms Media has been doing live short feeds all day in the Panhandle. A new one shows the traffic nightmare in Crestview of vehicles trying to head north on Hwy 85.

https://bit.ly/2E9XOTQ


Is always mind boggling why people wait until the middle of the day to evacuate, if they would had left before sunrise they would had not encountered any traffic at all. This was the case all the time when I lived in Nola. If I lived there and I had not evacuated I would had planned to leave around 3 AM tonight and avoided all the traffic.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2013 Postby otowntiger » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:34 pm

RL3AO wrote:The northern GOM doesn't get too many major hits where a storm intensifies until landfall.

That’s what I’ve been saying- it is much more common for a storm like this to drop significantly just prior to landfall than to strengthen all the up to that point. If it does that it will be historic.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2014 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:34 pm

It's been since either Matthew '16 or Joaquin '15 since I remember seeing a NAtl system fire off convection like this.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1049804610049900544


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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2015 Postby meriland29 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:36 pm

Wow...

Image

Y'all werent kidding about that 125kt winds....and it wasnt measured just one time either...quite a string of em.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2016 Postby drezee » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:36 pm

drezee wrote:Alright Storm2K, Michael just made a Fist. Huge tower wrapping fully around the eye wall. This is a precursor to deepening. It happened an hour before recon. Hold on to your seats to Cat 4....this is very bad

After the Fist, you always get a nice ring of intense convection. It will intensify until an EWRC. If it doesn't have one, then we are in trouble...
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2017 Postby MacTavish » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:36 pm

kevin mathis wrote:
FLpanhandle91 wrote:
NDG wrote:Fix: 26.45N & 86.38W

230600 2627N 08623W 7520 02101 9541 +190 +156 205025 028 030 000 00


Still a good western component to its northern movenent.


The 5 pm Michael was at 86.4....How is 86.23 a west component?



SSW wind on the drop, they missed the center to the east. Point is, its wobbling and there definitely isnt a pronounced eastward turn at all. Still moving around 355 degrees.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2018 Postby robbielyn » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:37 pm

kevin mathis wrote:
FLpanhandle91 wrote:
NDG wrote:Fix: 26.45N & 86.38W

230600 2627N 08623W 7520 02101 9541 +190 +156 205025 028 030 000 00


Still a good western component to its northern movenent.


The 5 pm Michael was at 86.4....How is 86.23 a west component?

he probably means he is on the west side of 86 still. and it's 86.38 not 86.23
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2019 Postby meriland29 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:37 pm

If those levels prove true, he could possibly tickle a cat 5 tonight. That being said, the rampant IR leads me to thoughts of a EWRC as well
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2020 Postby xironman » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:39 pm

meriland29 wrote:If those levels prove true, he could possibly tickle a cat 5 tonight. That being said, the rampant IR leads me to thoughts of a EWRC as well


I doubt it. The true eyewall is less than a day old.
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