ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Condor]

Looks like this new recon plane isn't going to sample the northeast quadrant on the first pass either.

I wonder why this is, anybody have any thoughts ?

[TennTradition]

Looks like this new recon plane isn't going to sample the northeast quadrant on the first pass either.

Is it possible that since Michael is nearing radar range, the hunters are de-emphasizing those NE quad readings due to the risks from lightening that is firing off thereand the availability of radar?

[wx98]

Looks like this new recon plane isn't going to sample the northeast quadrant on the first pass either.

I wonder why this is, anybody have any thoughts ?

Maybe because they came from the NW side of the hurricane so they just start there instead of going out if the way.

[USTropics]

The continental dry air effect is a real thing, but mostly we see that occurring at the mid-levels (~500 mb). Mid-level WV shows Michael pretty walled-off from what limited dry air there is at the mid-levels currently. The trough axis is acting to also provide additional atmospheric moisture to the CONUS on the eastern flank, and all indications are the dry air on the western flank won't impact Michael until after landfall.

[fwbbreeze]

Click on image

[MississippiWx]

Looks like this new recon plane isn't going to sample the northeast quadrant on the first pass either.

Is it possible that since Michael is nearing radar range, the hunters are de-emphasizing those NE quad readings due to the risks from lightening that is firing off thereand the availability of radar?

I think this one is just heading straight from Biloxi through the NW and SE quadrants because that was the direct path. However, the 1AM update will not have the readings from the NE quad. Annoying.

[USTropics]

Looks like this new recon plane isn't going to sample the northeast quadrant on the first pass either.

I wonder why this is, anybody have any thoughts ?

I answered this a few pages back:

To be more specific about what the lightning indicates from a meteorological perspective, it usually correlates to a high burst of vertical wind churning (up/down drafts) that creates this electrical field. In very intense hurricanes in this region (Hurricane Emily, Hurricane Rita and Hurricane Katrina all had extensive lightning and thunder) this can be a huge issue for recon. We're starting to see that in Michael tonight.

NASA did a study after the 2005 season with more details on this:
https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/s ... hurricanes

[deltadog03]

Here is why I think there is still a bit more time to move more N or NNW.....The steering is still as such for a quicker forward speed, but also that general N or NNW direction for a bit more. The western edge of the ridge still hasn't been broken down enough by the incoming trof to turn it yet.......Here is the 00z run first!











Here is the new updated 3z run....(6z run should be up soon)

[MississippiWx]

The continental dry air effect is a real thing, but mostly we see that occurring at the mid-levels (~500 mb). Mid-level WV shows Michael pretty walled-off from what limited dry air there is at the mid-levels currently. The trough axis is acting to also provide additional atmospheric moisture to the CONUS on the eastern flank, and all indications are the dry air on the western flank won't impact Michael until after landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/kLi8Im5.gif

We in Mississippi are thankful for the arrival of this trough. A day later and we are dealing with Michael. This is not beneficial for our Floridian friends, however.

[Condor]

Looks like this new recon plane isn't going to sample the northeast quadrant on the first pass either.

I wonder why this is, anybody have any thoughts ?

Maybe because they came from the NW side of the hurricane so they just start there instead of going out if the way.

For sure , the last recon plane that exited the storm did not pass through the NE quadrant for some time. Just have to wait and see

[Condor]

Looks like this new recon plane isn't going to sample the northeast quadrant on the first pass either.

I wonder why this is, anybody have any thoughts ?

I answered this a few pages back:

To be more specific about what the lightning indicates from a meteorological perspective, it usually correlates to a high burst of vertical wind churning (up/down drafts) that creates this electrical field. In very intense hurricanes in this region (Hurricane Emily, Hurricane Rita and Hurricane Katrina all had extensive lightning and thunder) this can be a huge issue for recon. We're starting to see that in Michael tonight.

NASA did a study after the 2005 season with more details on this:
https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/s ... hurricanes

Thank you hard to keep up with all the post

[KWT]

Pressure of 942.9mbs found, still may find a touch lower before hitting SE eyewall.

[MississippiWx]

Looks like recon could be turning to sample the NE quad. Not sure, but they didn't keep flying straight.

[cheezyWXguy]

Pressure of 942.9mbs found, still may find a touch lower before hitting SE eyewall.

Looks like they missed the center of the eye on that pass, that pressure was measured with 35kt FL and 51kt SFMR. Pressure may be closer to or even under 940

[MississippiWx]

Looks like recon could be turning to sample the NE quad. Not sure, but they didn't keep flying straight.

139kt flight level winds in SE quad!!

[USTropics]

I'm assuming recon is looking for a break in the vertical wind bursts, where they can kind of "punch" through the eyewall on the NE quad. It'd be nice to have the onboard radar graphics like last year.

[galaxy401]

...MICHAEL BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...

[CrazyC83]

Looks like recon could be turning to sample the NE quad. Not sure, but they didn't keep flying straight.

139kt flight level winds in SE quad!!

Since the NE quad has not been sampled and winds are likely stronger there, I would go with 115-120 kt.

[Blizzard96x]

Its a Cat 4, 130mph and 945mb at 2am update... surprised they didnt go with sub 940 with the 942.9 that was not even in the center...

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like recon could be turning to sample the NE quad. Not sure, but they didn't keep flying straight.

139kt flight level winds in SE quad!!

Since the NE quad has not been sampled and winds are likely stronger there, I would go with 115-120 kt.

Wouldn't 139kt FL reduce to 125kt at the surface?