ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2861 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:32 am

Review of the categories and expectations. Source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

4 (major) 130-156 mph, 113-136 kt, 209-251 km/h
Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

5 (major) 157 mph or higher, 137 kt or higher, 252 km/h or higher
Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

If you are one of the ones that stayed around, and you survive, the biggest issue will be getting rescued and/or finding water and food. It all depends exactly where it comes ashore, but even if you're on the west side conditions will be very bad.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2862 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:32 am

RL3AO wrote:Somehow the satellite appearance has improved quite a bit in the last 30 minutes.


I thought the same thing.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2863 Postby Camerooski » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:34 am

Image
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2864 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:34 am

Andy_L wrote:Anyone know what time high tide is along the likely landfall area???


Was watching my local station here and they had a reporter in Panama City. He said the high tide is around 1 pm local time I believe.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2865 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:34 am

supercane4867 wrote:Perfect CAT5 satellite presentation

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 908.5mb/146.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.2 7.3 7.3


Simply unreal :cry: We are witnessing history unfortunately it is going to come with a huge price :(
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2866 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:34 am

@MikeWDross — Recon dropsonde measuring incredible winds aloft in the eye-wall. 176 MPH around 1k feet. 181 mph around 3k feet.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2867 Postby pgoss11 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:35 am

Waking up to the most catastrophic scenario for Florida. Who would have believed that an almost Cat 5 would be approaching the Florida Panhandle in October? I am praying for all of my Storm2 family and friends. I hope you evacuated when you had the chance. Godspeed.
Last edited by pgoss11 on Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2868 Postby RL3AO » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:35 am

Andy_L wrote:Anyone know what time high tide is along the likely landfall area???


They have a very small tidal range there so it doesn't really matter.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2869 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:35 am

Still heading slightly west of the forecast track. Panama city watch out.

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2870 Postby MacTavish » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:36 am

In a little while the NWS should be issuing an "Extreme wind warning" I believe.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2871 Postby Dave C » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:36 am


The inner bands feeding the eyewall are quite impressive! :double:
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2872 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:36 am

SunnyThoughts wrote:
Andy_L wrote:Anyone know what time high tide is along the likely landfall area???


Was watching my local station here and they had a reporter in Panama City. He said the high tide is around 1 pm local time I believe.


Right at about the time of landfall..
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2873 Postby NDG » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:37 am

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2874 Postby StormPyrate » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:37 am

Good morning
Wow not good, cannot find wind field, how far out do we have hurricane/tropical storm winds?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2875 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:37 am

@GregPostel — I've never seen such an intense hurricane this close to the northern Gulf Coast. Not Katrina, not Opal. #HurricaneMichael #flwx #gawx
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2876 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:37 am

I went thru the Maria landfall and it was catastrofic here in Puerto Rico and is not something that anyone want to go thru but sadly,the panhandle of Florida will get it.My prayers go to all that will be affected.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2877 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:39 am

StormPyrate wrote:Good morning
Wow not good, cannot find wind field, how far out do we have hurricane/tropical storm winds?


Always check the latest NHC public advisory.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). A wind gust to 56 mph (91 km/h) was recently
reported at Apalachicola Regional Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA and Air Force
Reserve Hunter aircraft data is 933 mb (27.55 inches).
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2878 Postby SkeetoBite » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:40 am

StormPyrate wrote:Good morning
Wow not good, cannot find wind field, how far out do we have hurricane/tropical storm winds?


tolakram wrote:
Always check the latest NHC public advisory.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). A wind gust to 56 mph (91 km/h) was recently
reported at Apalachicola Regional Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA and Air Force
Reserve Hunter aircraft data is 933 mb (27.55 inches).


Image
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2879 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:41 am

Pressure seems to be leveling off at least for now. That's good news
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2880 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:41 am

@Sean_Breslin — “We have a pit in our stomachs, too.” -National Hurricane Center Director Ken Graham, speaking with @JimCantore on @weatherchannel just now.
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