ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20012
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Review of the categories and expectations. Source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php
4 (major) 130-156 mph, 113-136 kt, 209-251 km/h
Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
5 (major) 157 mph or higher, 137 kt or higher, 252 km/h or higher
Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
If you are one of the ones that stayed around, and you survive, the biggest issue will be getting rescued and/or finding water and food. It all depends exactly where it comes ashore, but even if you're on the west side conditions will be very bad.
4 (major) 130-156 mph, 113-136 kt, 209-251 km/h
Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
5 (major) 157 mph or higher, 137 kt or higher, 252 km/h or higher
Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
If you are one of the ones that stayed around, and you survive, the biggest issue will be getting rescued and/or finding water and food. It all depends exactly where it comes ashore, but even if you're on the west side conditions will be very bad.
2 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6179
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
RL3AO wrote:Somehow the satellite appearance has improved quite a bit in the last 30 minutes.
I thought the same thing.
1 likes
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
-
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 47
- Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:40 pm
- Location: Lauderdale-By-the-Sea ---> Coral Gables
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2263
- Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
- Location: Pensacola, Florida
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Andy_L wrote:Anyone know what time high tide is along the likely landfall area???
Was watching my local station here and they had a reporter in Panama City. He said the high tide is around 1 pm local time I believe.
1 likes
- HurricaneEnzo
- Category 2
- Posts: 739
- Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:18 pm
- Location: Newport, NC (Hurricane Alley)
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
supercane4867 wrote:Perfect CAT5 satellite presentation
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 908.5mb/146.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.2 7.3 7.3
Simply unreal


1 likes
Bertha 96' - Fran 96' - Bonnie 98' - Dennis 99' - Floyd 99' - Isabel 03' - Alex 04' - Ophelia 05' - Irene 11' - Arthur 14' - Matthew 16' - Florence 18' - Dorian 19' - Isaias 20' (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)
I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
- Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6179
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
@MikeWDross — Recon dropsonde measuring incredible winds aloft in the eye-wall. 176 MPH around 1k feet. 181 mph around 3k feet.
1 likes
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Waking up to the most catastrophic scenario for Florida. Who would have believed that an almost Cat 5 would be approaching the Florida Panhandle in October? I am praying for all of my Storm2 family and friends. I hope you evacuated when you had the chance. Godspeed.
Last edited by pgoss11 on Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
4 likes
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Andy_L wrote:Anyone know what time high tide is along the likely landfall area???
They have a very small tidal range there so it doesn't really matter.
1 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Still heading slightly west of the forecast track. Panama city watch out.


3 likes
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
In a little while the NWS should be issuing an "Extreme wind warning" I believe.
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 868
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 4:36 pm
- Location: Middleboro, Mass.(midway between Cape Cod and Boston)
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
The inner bands feeding the eyewall are quite impressive!

3 likes
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
SunnyThoughts wrote:Andy_L wrote:Anyone know what time high tide is along the likely landfall area???
Was watching my local station here and they had a reporter in Panama City. He said the high tide is around 1 pm local time I believe.
Right at about the time of landfall..
0 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 279
- Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:41 pm
- Location: Clearwater, FL
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Good morning
Wow not good, cannot find wind field, how far out do we have hurricane/tropical storm winds?
Wow not good, cannot find wind field, how far out do we have hurricane/tropical storm winds?
0 likes
St Petersburg Florida
- Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6179
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
@GregPostel — I've never seen such an intense hurricane this close to the northern Gulf Coast. Not Katrina, not Opal. #HurricaneMichael #flwx #gawx
3 likes
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145456
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
I went thru the Maria landfall and it was catastrofic here in Puerto Rico and is not something that anyone want to go thru but sadly,the panhandle of Florida will get it.My prayers go to all that will be affected.
10 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20012
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
StormPyrate wrote:Good morning
Wow not good, cannot find wind field, how far out do we have hurricane/tropical storm winds?
Always check the latest NHC public advisory.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). A wind gust to 56 mph (91 km/h) was recently
reported at Apalachicola Regional Airport.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA and Air Force
Reserve Hunter aircraft data is 933 mb (27.55 inches).
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). A wind gust to 56 mph (91 km/h) was recently
reported at Apalachicola Regional Airport.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA and Air Force
Reserve Hunter aircraft data is 933 mb (27.55 inches).
1 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- SkeetoBite
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 515
- Age: 59
- Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 8:25 am
- Contact:
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
StormPyrate wrote:Good morning
Wow not good, cannot find wind field, how far out do we have hurricane/tropical storm winds?
tolakram wrote:
Always check the latest NHC public advisory.Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). A wind gust to 56 mph (91 km/h) was recently
reported at Apalachicola Regional Airport.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA and Air Force
Reserve Hunter aircraft data is 933 mb (27.55 inches).

1 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Pressure seems to be leveling off at least for now. That's good news
1 likes
- Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6179
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
@Sean_Breslin — “We have a pit in our stomachs, too.” -National Hurricane Center Director Ken Graham, speaking with @JimCantore on @weatherchannel just now.
1 likes
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests