ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1050028700123713536

[supercane4867]

Extreme wind warnings should come out in a hour or two

[wxman57]

all signs are that the storm surge will be historic

At low tide, fortunately

Tidal range today is only about 11 inches in Panama City. The tide at landfall will be about 6 inches above MSL. Not much of a low tide benefit...

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn&region=gm&datum=msl&list=&map=0-48&type=both&stn=flpana

[CronkPSU]

“Some strengthening is still possible”

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1050035676702478336

[northjaxpro]

Only about 50% evacuated from zones A, B and C.

The 331 bridge is now closed and a curfew will be placed.

Crazy stubborn people.

This is so sad that so many people did not evacuate. Unbelievable!!

[Blown Away]

Mike flattening out with that trough pushing on him now... I hope we’ve seen the peak at this point...

[tolakram]

and this ...

Recent radar imagery
suggest that an outer eyewall may be trying to form, and this could
slow or halt the intensification process.

So apologies to the whoever the unknown TV personality was we disparaged above.

[ronjon]

Full stadium effect on VIS SAT.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=14L&product=vis

[AnnularCane]

Only about 50% evacuated from zones A, B and C.

The 331 bridge is now closed and a curfew will be placed.

Nowhere near as much as I expected.

[Rail Dawg]

Storm chaser Brett Adair relocating to Mexico Beach to try and intercept the eye. Passed a research team just East of Tyndall setting up a observation tower. We will see if it survives. May be some amazing data.

Mexico Beach is only a few miles from me here in Panama City.

There’s no way I’d leave the concrete structure I’m in to catch the eye.

Not faulting a fellow chaser just trying to figure out if Mexico Beach is survivable in a vehicle.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/AlexCalamiaWx/status/1050036624090902529

[Texas Snowman]

@ericfisher — Pressure down to 928mb with 145mph winds. Huge destructive power coming ashore. For reference, Andrew's pressure was 922mb at landfall.

[supercane4867]

NW-SE pass coming...This one should be big

[Ken711]

NHC Discussion:

Flight-level, SFMR, and NWS WSR-88D Doppler wind data all support an intensity of 125 kt. The
hurricane only has a few hours left over water during which additional intensification is possible.

[Dean4Storms]

We evacuated yesterday from South Walton County in the RV now up near Greenville, AL. Hope and pray for those just to our East near Panama City and point eastward where it will be catastrophic.

[psyclone]

It seems like just yesterday half of this website was complaining when Florence weakened before landfall. For those who enjoy destruction and chaos, it looks like Michael won't disappoint you (hopefully I am wrong).

Given the forward speed and the continued blow ups of convection, a Florence-esque situation seems unlikely to my non-professional eyes.

Oh Michael will find a way, there is already some "wind shear" in place somewhere ready to do what happens every time a hurricane is moving northwards towards the gulf coast. They have to be really tight hurricanes (small like Humberto) to peak as they're making LF around that zone. Think how many times a hurricane has peaked or met the NHC's LF intensity on the northern Gulf coast, very few and even less that are expected to be over major status. I don't believe it until its 2 hours away from LF, and despite what Michael is doing right now I'm firmly holding to that "rule of thumb". Michael will be lethal for water like all the rest of them so by no means does this indicate I think he will bust. Everyone should evacuate in Michael's path for sure and he will certainly live up to the hype water wise. I just never believe the LF windspeed intensity when predicted to be over 100 knots, like Florence I couldn't understand the CAT4/5 predictions on that one! I'm waiting for that ERC (Michael's structure may not allow for one before LF though IMO) to occur and postings of the usual cliches "dodged a bullet" and "could've been worse!". You can bet the farm on it.

Things are not looking good for the "farm bet" at this juncture. I recall a former NHC director response when asked "why do storms weaken as they near the coast?"...Without missing a beat he said something like...they do except for the ones that don't. Michael looks to be a rare "don't" situation.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/cweathernet/status/1050038053094461440

[tolakram]

[DestinHurricane]

So what wind should I expect In Mirimar? I'm guessing 60 mph wind gust?