ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3141 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:53 am

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3142 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:53 am

Extreme wind warnings should come out in a hour or two
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3143 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:54 am

plasticup wrote:
dhweather wrote:all signs are that the storm surge will be historic

At low tide, fortunately


Tidal range today is only about 11 inches in Panama City. The tide at landfall will be about 6 inches above MSL. Not much of a low tide benefit...

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn&region=gm&datum=msl&list=&map=0-48&type=both&stn=flpana
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3144 Postby CronkPSU » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:54 am

“Some strengthening is still possible”
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Just like Jon Snow..."I know nothing" except what I know, and most of what I know is gathered by the fine people of the NHC

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3145 Postby Ken711 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:54 am

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3146 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:54 am

NDG wrote:
Jonny wrote:Only about 50% evacuated from zones A, B and C.

The 331 bridge is now closed and a curfew will be placed.


Crazy stubborn people. :double:


This is so sad that so many people did not evacuate. Unbelievable!!
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3147 Postby Blown Away » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:54 am

Mike flattening out with that trough pushing on him now... I hope we’ve seen the peak at this point...
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3148 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:55 am

and this ...

Recent radar imagery
suggest that an outer eyewall may be trying to form, and this could
slow or halt the intensification process.


So apologies to the whoever the unknown TV personality was we disparaged above. :)
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3149 Postby ronjon » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:56 am

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3150 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:56 am

Jonny wrote:Only about 50% evacuated from zones A, B and C.

The 331 bridge is now closed and a curfew will be placed.


:eek:

Nowhere near as much as I expected.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3151 Postby Rail Dawg » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:57 am

sponger wrote:Storm chaser Brett Adair relocating to Mexico Beach to try and intercept the eye. Passed a research team just East of Tyndall setting up a observation tower. We will see if it survives. May be some amazing data.


Mexico Beach is only a few miles from me here in Panama City.

There’s no way I’d leave the concrete structure I’m in to catch the eye.

Not faulting a fellow chaser just trying to figure out if Mexico Beach is survivable in a vehicle.
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Although I have been a hurricane forecaster since 1980 that only means I've been wrong lots of times.

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3152 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:58 am

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3153 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:59 am

@ericfisher — Pressure down to 928mb with 145mph winds. Huge destructive power coming ashore. For reference, Andrew's pressure was 922mb at landfall.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3154 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:59 am

NW-SE pass coming...This one should be big
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3155 Postby Ken711 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:59 am

NHC Discussion:

Flight-level, SFMR, and NWS WSR-88D Doppler wind data all support an intensity of 125 kt. The
hurricane only has a few hours left over water during which additional intensification is possible.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3156 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:59 am

We evacuated yesterday from South Walton County in the RV now up near Greenville, AL. Hope and pray for those just to our East near Panama City and point eastward where it will be catastrophic.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3157 Postby psyclone » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:59 am

Cyclenall wrote:
MrStormX wrote:It seems like just yesterday half of this website was complaining when Florence weakened before landfall. For those who enjoy destruction and chaos, it looks like Michael won't disappoint you (hopefully I am wrong).

Given the forward speed and the continued blow ups of convection, a Florence-esque situation seems unlikely to my non-professional eyes.

Oh Michael will find a way, there is already some "wind shear" in place somewhere ready to do what happens every time a hurricane is moving northwards towards the gulf coast. They have to be really tight hurricanes (small like Humberto) to peak as they're making LF around that zone. Think how many times a hurricane has peaked or met the NHC's LF intensity on the northern Gulf coast, very few and even less that are expected to be over major status. I don't believe it until its 2 hours away from LF, and despite what Michael is doing right now I'm firmly holding to that "rule of thumb". Michael will be lethal for water like all the rest of them so by no means does this indicate I think he will bust. Everyone should evacuate in Michael's path for sure and he will certainly live up to the hype water wise. I just never believe the LF windspeed intensity when predicted to be over 100 knots, like Florence I couldn't understand the CAT4/5 predictions on that one! I'm waiting for that ERC (Michael's structure may not allow for one before LF though IMO) to occur and postings of the usual cliches "dodged a bullet" and "could've been worse!". You can bet the farm on it.


Things are not looking good for the "farm bet" at this juncture. I recall a former NHC director response when asked "why do storms weaken as they near the coast?"...Without missing a beat he said something like...they do except for the ones that don't. Michael looks to be a rare "don't" situation.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3158 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:00 am

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3159 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:00 am

Image
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3160 Postby DestinHurricane » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:00 am

So what wind should I expect In Mirimar? I'm guessing 60 mph wind gust?
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