ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jaxfladude]

Hi. Prayers to all. My niece goes to FSU while I'm a huge Florida Gators fan, I am fearful for Tallahassee and points west to Fl/Al line. I hope my niece is able to go back to FSU on Monday as planned by the school as it reopens...Again all my thoughts and prayers to all in harm's way...Fla to the Carolinas...

[plasticup]

Recent radar imagery
suggest that an outer eyewall may be trying to form, and this could
slow or halt the intensification process.

Do we owe that local met an apology?!??

[NDG]

143 knot flight level winds!!!

151400 2922N 08548W 6971 02605 //// +107 //// 243139 143 114 001 01

[ozonepete]

This radar loop shows the polygonal structure of the eye wall very well. Watching this should help you see one reason why hurricane eyes can wobble as the move forward. There are other forces involved, but this shape definitely allows for back and forth wiggling. Fascinating stuff.

[url]http://i.imgur.com/eai73rr.gif [/url]

Almost down to three mesovortices

Yes they come and go for reasons not much understood. The last mesovorts could fade soon and this go back to a circular eye. It won't make any difference anyway other than maybe less wobbles. And regardless, there is no time left for an EWRC now and it's coming in at high cat 4, period.

[SconnieCane]

919.9 mb extrapolated on latest pass

May not be quite that low, still, so much for degrading or ERC.

[baitism]

NE eyewall looks exceptionally vicious right now. Reds and dark oranges on radar.

[Extratropical94]

919.9 mb extrapolated on latest pass

May not be quite that low, still, so much for degrading or ERC.

Yeah, assuming the same AF low bias as in previous passes, it might be around 925.

[HurricaneEnzo]

919.9 mb extrapolated on latest pass

Geeze hopefully that number is a good bit off like it was last pass. Michael giving it all he has in the home stretch.

[EquusStorm]

Definitely looking like peak RFQ could be more Mexico Beach than Panama City but not like the NW eyewall is much weaker at all, and the surge will still be very nasty

[supercane4867]

Extrap pressure is a bit overdone, but 925mb/130kt seems about right

[BensonTCwatcher]

Watching Adair now.

That surge has to come over that road, right?

That's 98 and the roadway is about 7 feet above the beach. Where he's parked, if there's 12 feet of surge it will wash over even the high spots. There thinking about St.Joe...better pack a lunch they are going to be there a while...no power and trees down everywhere. 30 miles of downed pines across the roads for 30 miles in all directions from there. Will take a while to cut the trees and 98 will likely be cut at the bridge on the N side Mexico beach. 71 will flood back to the West too..

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1050042686353362944

[KWT]

919.9 mb extrapolated on latest pass

May not be quite that low, still, so much for degrading or ERC.

Yeah probably 925 would be a good guess, but who knows.

There was a slight outer moat briefly but it's all filled back in again.

Amazing hurricane for sure, 130kts looking possible for sure.

[JaxGator]

Getting windy in Apalachicola. Winds are 40 mph with gusts to 60. And now there's an extreme wind warning due to the eyewall. Per radar, Mexico Beach or near it seems to be where landfall might occur. I don't usually make those kind of predictions (see disclaimer). Either way, Panama City to Port St. Joe-Apalachicola are going to be under the gun. Rail Dawg, stay safe and good luck.

[HurricaneEnzo]

What they were saying might be an ERC looks more like some kind of banding feature on radar loop to me. idk. Eyewall is as nasty as ever.

[EquusStorm]

JEEZ! I said yesterday Opal comparisons were valid but it'd be nowhere near Opal's peak, but it's going to be hella close AT LANDFALL to Opal's absolute maximum.

[ozonepete]

This radar loop shows the polygonal structure of the eye wall very well. Watching this should help you see one reason why hurricane eyes can wobble as the move forward. There are other forces involved, but this shape definitely allows for back and forth wiggling. Fascinating stuff.

[url]http://i.imgur.com/eai73rr.gif [/url]

What's your best guess on landfall location?

Mexico Beach or slightly south of there at Port. St. Joe.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Listening to WJHG right now, NWS has issued an extreme wind warning. The language the news anchors are using is disturbingly reminiscent of the newscasts the night Hurricane Andrew made landfall in Miami.

[Smith,J]

What did the guy on the Weather Channel say was swimming dwn water street in Appalachicola?

[Extratropical94]

Center dropsonde: 925/17