ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1249
- Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:36 pm
- Location: Jacksonville, Fla
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Hi. Prayers to all. My niece goes to FSU while I'm a huge Florida Gators fan, I am fearful for Tallahassee and points west to Fl/Al line. I hope my niece is able to go back to FSU on Monday as planned by the school as it reopens...Again all my thoughts and prayers to all in harm's way...Fla to the Carolinas...
0 likes
Stay safe y'all
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Recent radar imagery
suggest that an outer eyewall may be trying to form, and this could
slow or halt the intensification process.
Do we owe that local met an apology?!??
4 likes
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
143 knot flight level winds!!!
151400 2922N 08548W 6971 02605 //// +107 //// 243139 143 114 001 01
151400 2922N 08548W 6971 02605 //// +107 //// 243139 143 114 001 01
1 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4743
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
JBCycloneStan wrote:ozonepete wrote:This radar loop shows the polygonal structure of the eye wall very well. Watching this should help you see one reason why hurricane eyes can wobble as the move forward. There are other forces involved, but this shape definitely allows for back and forth wiggling. Fascinating stuff.
[url]http://i.imgur.com/eai73rr.gif [/url]
Almost down to three mesovortices
Yes they come and go for reasons not much understood. The last mesovorts could fade soon and this go back to a circular eye. It won't make any difference anyway other than maybe less wobbles. And regardless, there is no time left for an EWRC now and it's coming in at high cat 4, period.
2 likes
-
- Category 4
- Posts: 998
- Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:29 pm
- Location: Madison, WI
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Extratropical94 wrote:919.9 mb extrapolated on latest pass
May not be quite that low, still, so much for degrading or ERC.
1 likes
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
NE eyewall looks exceptionally vicious right now. Reds and dark oranges on radar.
1 likes
- Extratropical94
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3538
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
- Location: Hamburg, Germany
- Contact:
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
SconnieCane wrote:Extratropical94 wrote:919.9 mb extrapolated on latest pass
May not be quite that low, still, so much for degrading or ERC.
Yeah, assuming the same AF low bias as in previous passes, it might be around 925.
0 likes
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
- HurricaneEnzo
- Category 2
- Posts: 739
- Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:18 pm
- Location: Newport, NC (Hurricane Alley)
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Extratropical94 wrote:919.9 mb extrapolated on latest pass
Geeze hopefully that number is a good bit off like it was last pass. Michael giving it all he has in the home stretch.
1 likes
Bertha 96' - Fran 96' - Bonnie 98' - Dennis 99' - Floyd 99' - Isabel 03' - Alex 04' - Ophelia 05' - Irene 11' - Arthur 14' - Matthew 16' - Florence 18' - Dorian 19' - Isaias 20' (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)
I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
- EquusStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 1649
- Age: 34
- Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
- Location: Jasper, AL
- Contact:
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Definitely looking like peak RFQ could be more Mexico Beach than Panama City but not like the NW eyewall is much weaker at all, and the surge will still be very nasty
1 likes
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Extrap pressure is a bit overdone, but 925mb/130kt seems about right
1 likes
- BensonTCwatcher
- Category 5
- Posts: 1046
- Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:11 pm
- Location: Southport NC
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
TexWx wrote:Watching Adair now.
That surge has to come over that road, right?
That's 98 and the roadway is about 7 feet above the beach. Where he's parked, if there's 12 feet of surge it will wash over even the high spots. There thinking about St.Joe...better pack a lunch they are going to be there a while...no power and trees down everywhere. 30 miles of downed pines across the roads for 30 miles in all directions from there. Will take a while to cut the trees and 98 will likely be cut at the bridge on the N side Mexico beach. 71 will flood back to the West too..
1 likes
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20010
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
3 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
SconnieCane wrote:Extratropical94 wrote:919.9 mb extrapolated on latest pass
May not be quite that low, still, so much for degrading or ERC.
Yeah probably 925 would be a good guess, but who knows.
There was a slight outer moat briefly but it's all filled back in again.
Amazing hurricane for sure, 130kts looking possible for sure.
2 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Getting windy in Apalachicola. Winds are 40 mph with gusts to 60. And now there's an extreme wind warning due to the eyewall. Per radar, Mexico Beach or near it seems to be where landfall might occur. I don't usually make those kind of predictions (see disclaimer). Either way, Panama City to Port St. Joe-Apalachicola are going to be under the gun. Rail Dawg, stay safe and good luck.
Last edited by JaxGator on Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes
The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.
Floyd-1999, Frances-2004, Jeanne-2004, Fay-2008, Beryl-2012, Debby-2012, Colin-2016, Hermine-2016, Julia-2016, Matthew-2016, Irma-2017, Elsa-2021, Idalia-2023, Debby-2024, Helene-2024.
Go Gators! Go Jags!
Floyd-1999, Frances-2004, Jeanne-2004, Fay-2008, Beryl-2012, Debby-2012, Colin-2016, Hermine-2016, Julia-2016, Matthew-2016, Irma-2017, Elsa-2021, Idalia-2023, Debby-2024, Helene-2024.
Go Gators! Go Jags!
- HurricaneEnzo
- Category 2
- Posts: 739
- Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:18 pm
- Location: Newport, NC (Hurricane Alley)
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
What they were saying might be an ERC looks more like some kind of banding feature on radar loop to me. idk. Eyewall is as nasty as ever.
1 likes
Bertha 96' - Fran 96' - Bonnie 98' - Dennis 99' - Floyd 99' - Isabel 03' - Alex 04' - Ophelia 05' - Irene 11' - Arthur 14' - Matthew 16' - Florence 18' - Dorian 19' - Isaias 20' (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)
I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
- EquusStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 1649
- Age: 34
- Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
- Location: Jasper, AL
- Contact:
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
JEEZ! I said yesterday Opal comparisons were valid but it'd be nowhere near Opal's peak, but it's going to be hella close AT LANDFALL to Opal's absolute maximum. 

2 likes
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4743
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Ken711 wrote:ozonepete wrote:This radar loop shows the polygonal structure of the eye wall very well. Watching this should help you see one reason why hurricane eyes can wobble as the move forward. There are other forces involved, but this shape definitely allows for back and forth wiggling. Fascinating stuff.
[url]http://i.imgur.com/eai73rr.gif [/url]
What's your best guess on landfall location?
Mexico Beach or slightly south of there at Port. St. Joe.
1 likes
- Hypercane_Kyle
- Category 5
- Posts: 3352
- Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
- Location: Cape Canaveral, FL
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Listening to WJHG right now, NWS has issued an extreme wind warning. The language the news anchors are using is disturbingly reminiscent of the newscasts the night Hurricane Andrew made landfall in Miami.
1 likes
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
What did the guy on the Weather Channel say was swimming dwn water street in Appalachicola?
0 likes
- Extratropical94
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3538
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
- Location: Hamburg, Germany
- Contact:
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Center dropsonde: 925/17
2 likes
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests