Texas Fall 2018

[bubba hotep]

The models are all boring today

At least for DFW, the 18z GFS is a wet torch in the longer run. The upcoming cool snap gets DFW down in the 40s.

[AubreyStorm]

Here is the latest back half of the EPS (Euro ensembles) which tells us pretty much the cold runs will continue at varying degrees.

https://images2.imgbox.com/33/5c/cRR2aMSo_o.gif

The snow/ice storm maps are still around 200 hours out so it is mostly novelty that comes and goes also to varying degrees depending on run. I think the NWS is going a bit conservative for late week with temps, though justified given how far that is. It is likely though many will experience the first freeze if not a hard freeze, especially outside immediate urban areas. Should be a couple waves of cold.

Luckily we have the FV3 to compare the GFS towards. I think the FV3 has better skill than the GFS regarding temperatures, it has mid 40s for highs in NTX on Friday which seems more realistic than 50s on the GFS given both shows strong CAA.

Hi! I live in Denton, Texas.
So, i will seeeeeee snow ⛄️?????

[Brent]

the GFS is boring tonight. Totally lost the cold The EPS and GEFS still have multiple days with lows in the 30s though

[TXWeatherMan]

the GFS is boring tonight. Totally lost the cold The EPS and GEFS still have multiple days with lows in the 30s though

Yep. The FV3, Euro, and Canadian still show it getting pretty chilly.

[Brent]

Euro is even colder than the weekend by the end of the run, very dry though

[Ralph's Weather]

the GFS is boring tonight. Totally lost the cold The EPS and GEFS still have multiple days with lows in the 30s though

Typical GFS.

[srainhoutx]

We probably should pay a little closer attention to the FV3-GFS as NOAA announced a week or two ago that it will become operational after the New Year. I will not be surprised to see a big Southern Rockies/Central/Southern Plains Winter Storm next weekend. The cold air advection behind that storm will certainly have a bite if the snow flies as expected.

[Ralph's Weather]

Anyone see the Southern Plains monster storm on the 0Z Canadian for the middle of next week. The Canadian ensembles hint at this pattern, but the GFS and Euro ensembles and op runs are dry NW flow.

[Cpv17]

What’s causing the models to be so east with the cold air?

[bubba hotep]

Having flashbacks to last winter with the models showing persistently lower heights across the Great Lakes and an east shifted WCAN high. Ugly NW flow with no room for a Southern Plains system to really ramp up. Hopefully, this is a transit pattern but then again the Euro EPS shows a raging +NAO and extended Pacific jet in the long rang... Even uglier. However,

[Cpv17]

The CPC still expects a major cool down across TX.



And it looks to stick around for a while.



And above average precipitation.





So overall, this looks pretty good for us.

[AubreyStorm]

Yesssssss! snow coming SOON!

Hey, Denton, Texas ... Y’all

[weatherdude1108]

The 12Z GFS has a concentrated area of high QPF (rain bomb?) for central and southern Texas.




The 12Z FV3-GFS Test is saying Meh, probably not.

[Brent]

Having flashbacks to last winter with the models showing persistently lower heights across the Great Lakes and an east shifted WCAN high. Ugly NW flow with no room for a Southern Plains system to really ramp up. Hopefully, this is a transit pattern but then again the Euro EPS shows a raging +NAO and extended Pacific jet in the long rang... Even uglier. However,

Lets hope thats short lived

[TheProfessor]

Um wow. That 18z GFS would be amazing for me in Ohio.

[Cpv17]

Wow, the 18z GFS actually has some pretty chilly air for us. Actually has the heart of the cold air aimed at us this time instead of the east.

[TheProfessor]

That's actually what I need. The models have been too far east with the cold air for me to get a winter storm, minus the 18z GFS.

[Haris]

Might be boring a little but some nice rain headed late thursday! euro has an inch area wide of rainfall around Central TX and the gefs etc... thats what we need. Rain but not a lot and evenly distributed!

[bubba hotep]

Euro Weeklies are bleh... Big cold shot then steady moderation until most of the country is above normal in December. However, analogs pointed to moderation or even warmth in December before flipping back colder in Jan and Feb. Below normal 850s do show back up by the end of the run around Dec 20.

[TXWeatherMan]

The Canadian is crazy cold for next week and has a winter storm. I guess that’s why they call it the crazy canadian.