Texas Fall 2018

[spencer817]

For those still looking for some small iota of hope, there are 4 SREF members that have over 2" of snow at DFW. The mean is 0.64 with nearly 20 members showing no snow at all.

Many GEFS still have at least a trace as well.

[bubba hotep]

Anyone have a source region for the air? US Snow cover is ok, but I look for moderating to be an issue with temps unless the source is a good one!

The cold air originated in Siberia and near Greenland A sprawling 1050mb High over Eastern Russia and Eastern Europe is assisting with shuffling the cold air across the North Pole into Canada. A strong shortwave upper trough is currently diving S over the Yukon Territories that will send a 1040mb+ Artic High into Colorado Monday. That High may build to near 1050mb Monday into Tuesday. It actually a function of perturbed Polar Vortex event that happened about a week ago. Interestingly the long range 10mb models suggest and perturbed round of that Polar Vortex may occur around Thanksgiving that may lead to another strong shot of Artic Air in early to mid December. Time will tell.

I posted a bit ago that my winter thinking was that December would carry the greatest warm risk out of DJF. However, a disrupted Polar Vortex could total change that by unleashing a big cold dump.

[Ntxw]

To reiterate Srain's post, took a look at the ensembles. We're going to see some moderation just before Thanksgiving (Texas is not as warm as areas to the north and may sneak out normal or slightly below normal). Then the pattern is reshuffled and cold air builds into Western Canada. A deep southwest trough will usher in big storms into California and the southwest undercutting through Texas. Then heights rise in the Aleutians and Alaska bringing in renewed -EPO. This should set stage for a big cold snap into the Western and Central US early December. Heights also rise in Eastern Canada.

We may whiff this early round but there is much more to come.

[Ntxw]

I posted a bit ago that my winter thinking was that December would carry the greatest warm risk out of DJF. However, a disrupted Polar Vortex could total change that by unleashing a big cold dump.

A warm December is good Nino climo. I'd make the argument the very warm NE Pacific is going to muddle that traditional logic. 500mb heights have averaged much above the past 90 days over that region. In a normal Nino state you'll see a very cold Aleutians->GOA.

So instead of a warm W-Canada the opposite is going to happen with a very cold region.

[Ralph's Weather]

I posted a bit ago that my winter thinking was that December would carry the greatest warm risk out of DJF. However, a disrupted Polar Vortex could total change that by unleashing a big cold dump.

A warm December is good Nino climo. I'd make the argument the very warm NE Pacific is going to muddle that traditional logic. 500mb heights have averaged much above the past 90 days over that region. In a normal Nino state you'll see a very cold Aleutians->GOA.

So instead of a warm W-Canada the opposite is going to happen with a very cold region.

https://images2.imgbox.com/a6/25/H9HhdiPa_o.png

This is a great set up for snow lovers. Should be a winter with plenty of moisture and plenty of cold at all levels. Texas could well be in a sweet spot for above average snow anomalies this winter. Who knows if this storm pans out but what is borderline in November will be a big event during winter.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Made it down to 27 here.

[spencer817]

12z GFS a good trend, shows the snow over DFW rather than NW then lifting.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS sends another cold front, cool air mass late next week. Prior runs it largely missed to the east and northeast. There has been a bias so far of models trying too much to shunt air masses to the east in the longer range than verification and adjusting west in the short and medium range.

It's been very bad.

[bubba hotep]

The 12z GFS might justify shifting the rain/snow mix a bit SE but have to wait and see what the Euro says. The 12z GFS lingers precipitation longer than the 3K NAM but the NAM is a bit colder.

[Ntxw]

Also lost in all the snow talk, DFW may pick up another 1-1.5" of rain. 51.17" so far for the year. We are inching closer to the #2 wettest year slot from 1991.

[TheProfessor]

Looks like models are backing away from a really awesome 4-6" November storm for me and are settling in on what would still be a nice 1-3" Although I won't count out anything till the system passes. Just gotta hope the NAM is wrong since it gives me nothing

[Cerlin]

Models are trending farther and farther away from DFW snow. 18z NAM (12k) has virtually nothing for DFW.

[Brent]

Models are trending farther and farther away from DFW snow. 18z NAM (12k) has virtually nothing for DFW.

How shocking

[Cerlin]

Models are trending farther and farther away from DFW snow. 18z NAM (12k) has virtually nothing for DFW.

How shocking

18z GFS follows suit and precip dissipates sooner.

[Ralph's Weather]

Models are trending farther and farther away from DFW snow. 18z NAM (12k) has virtually nothing for DFW.

At this point have to hope for the STJ to supply some additional moisture that the models are missing.

[Brent]

Models are trending farther and farther away from DFW snow. 18z NAM (12k) has virtually nothing for DFW.

At this point have to hope for the STJ to supply some additional moisture that the models are missing.

Cant say I'm totally surprised ive been on the fence about the metro all along. Hopefully in a month or two we'll have different results

[Haris]

0z nam very cold!


32F austin Tuesday and 29-30F Wed!

[Rgv20]

0zNAM showing moisture returning for the RGV with temperatures in the mid 30s Tuesday Night thru Wednesday Morning.....Frozen precipitation of any kind is very very rare down here and not to mention that is only mid November!

[somethingfunny]

How much rain is expected though?

[Brent]

How much rain is expected though?

looking like probably around an inch for the metro. It's gonna be a miserable rain at that