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TexasSam wrote:I know it's 45 deg. here, but I swear I see a few tiny flakes of snow.
bubba hotep wrote:00z Euro and FV3 are much more interesting for N. Texas than this last system, IMO. The last system delivered for parts of W. Texas and it would've probably been a blockbuster system for all of Texas in late January or February but there just wasn't enough cold air, which is typical for early Dec. There still isn't much cold air this go round but this next system looks much more dynamic and we could see some heavy wet snow in the backside favored areas.
By next Tuesday afternoon there are three pieces of energy to watch, with each playing a role in the final solution.
At least we have another system to watch
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:bubba hotep wrote:00z Euro and FV3 are much more interesting for N. Texas than this last system, IMO. The last system delivered for parts of W. Texas and it would've probably been a blockbuster system for all of Texas in late January or February but there just wasn't enough cold air, which is typical for early Dec. There still isn't much cold air this go round but this next system looks much more dynamic and we could see some heavy wet snow in the backside favored areas.
By next Tuesday afternoon there are three pieces of energy to watch, with each playing a role in the final solution.
At least we have another system to watch
Is anyone picking up on it? It seems the week will just get warmer and warmer, ending up mid 60's next weekend.
Brent wrote:Lagreeneyes03 wrote:bubba hotep wrote:00z Euro and FV3 are much more interesting for N. Texas than this last system, IMO. The last system delivered for parts of W. Texas and it would've probably been a blockbuster system for all of Texas in late January or February but there just wasn't enough cold air, which is typical for early Dec. There still isn't much cold air this go round but this next system looks much more dynamic and we could see some heavy wet snow in the backside favored areas.
By next Tuesday afternoon there are three pieces of energy to watch, with each playing a role in the final solution.
At least we have another system to watch
Is anyone picking up on it? It seems the week will just get warmer and warmer, ending up mid 60's next weekend.
FWD thinks theres a chance if its slower moving. It won't be that cold but cold cores have their own cold air like Lubbock yesterday
bubba hotep wrote:Euro also has another one at D10. I really like seeing these cutoffs in the models b/c the N. Pacific pattern will start to transition in about a week or so to one that favors colder air in WCAN. Keep the cutoffs rolling and we are bound to score eventually.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018120912/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png
bubba hotep wrote:12z Euro came in a bit more progressive and we need things to slow down for us to have any chance with this system. And to clarify, we are starting off with really really low chances as it is lol
The 12z FV3 still gives us a fighting chance
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018120912/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_19.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018120912/fv3p_z500aNorm_eus_20.png
vs Euro
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018120912/ecmwf_z500aNorm_eus_6.png
bubba hotep wrote:We need to pick it up a bit, if we want to hit 100 pages in December! 300 Page Winter or Bust
Ralph's Weather wrote:bubba hotep wrote:12z Euro came in a bit more progressive and we need things to slow down for us to have any chance with this system. And to clarify, we are starting off with really really low chances as it is lol
The 12z FV3 still gives us a fighting chance
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018120912/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_19.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018120912/fv3p_z500aNorm_eus_20.png
vs Euro
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018120912/ecmwf_z500aNorm_eus_6.png
That is an insanely deep upper low. You would think it could find stools cold to bring down on its western side. Not gonna bet on it being deep enough su this point though.
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