Texas Winter 2018-2019
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
My former college professor in Lubbock got pics from his yard today.
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
the FV GFS is close to a wintry threat for DFW on Thursday, certainly something to watch
One thing I am noticing, the models are trending colder for sure, still too warm, but a lot cooler than yesterday
remember a few days ago the Euro had one run showing a foot of snow in E OK in the same timeframe
also thought it was interesting FWD seemed intrigued:
At this point, it is far too early to speculate about the
prospects for winter weather, but people are advised to monitor
the latest forecast information as we head into next week.
One thing I am noticing, the models are trending colder for sure, still too warm, but a lot cooler than yesterday
remember a few days ago the Euro had one run showing a foot of snow in E OK in the same timeframe
also thought it was interesting FWD seemed intrigued:
At this point, it is far too early to speculate about the
prospects for winter weather, but people are advised to monitor
the latest forecast information as we head into next week.
Last edited by Brent on Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- TexasSam
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
I know it's 45 deg. here, but I swear I see a few tiny flakes of snow.
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
00z Euro and FV3 are much more interesting for N. Texas than this last system, IMO. The last system delivered for parts of W. Texas and it would've probably been a blockbuster system for all of Texas in late January or February but there just wasn't enough cold air, which is typical for early Dec. There still isn't much cold air this go round but this next system looks much more dynamic and we could see some heavy wet snow in the backside favored areas.
By next Tuesday afternoon there are three pieces of energy to watch, with each playing a role in the final solution.
With this system, we see a more favorable setup across the GL & NE but still could use some help from the Pacific by the Western ridge building into WCAN.
This is what we get when we look at Dec snow in N. Texas when MEI is positive.
At least we have another system to watch
By next Tuesday afternoon there are three pieces of energy to watch, with each playing a role in the final solution.
With this system, we see a more favorable setup across the GL & NE but still could use some help from the Pacific by the Western ridge building into WCAN.
This is what we get when we look at Dec snow in N. Texas when MEI is positive.
At least we have another system to watch
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
TexasSam wrote:I know it's 45 deg. here, but I swear I see a few tiny flakes of snow.
That would be difficult as the entire cloud deck was in above-freezing air. We saw very light drizzle across Houston around that time. The drops would swirl around like snowflakes.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
bubba hotep wrote:00z Euro and FV3 are much more interesting for N. Texas than this last system, IMO. The last system delivered for parts of W. Texas and it would've probably been a blockbuster system for all of Texas in late January or February but there just wasn't enough cold air, which is typical for early Dec. There still isn't much cold air this go round but this next system looks much more dynamic and we could see some heavy wet snow in the backside favored areas.
By next Tuesday afternoon there are three pieces of energy to watch, with each playing a role in the final solution.
At least we have another system to watch
Is anyone picking up on it? It seems the week will just get warmer and warmer, ending up mid 60's next weekend.
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I'm a Princess, not a forecaster.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:bubba hotep wrote:00z Euro and FV3 are much more interesting for N. Texas than this last system, IMO. The last system delivered for parts of W. Texas and it would've probably been a blockbuster system for all of Texas in late January or February but there just wasn't enough cold air, which is typical for early Dec. There still isn't much cold air this go round but this next system looks much more dynamic and we could see some heavy wet snow in the backside favored areas.
By next Tuesday afternoon there are three pieces of energy to watch, with each playing a role in the final solution.
At least we have another system to watch
Is anyone picking up on it? It seems the week will just get warmer and warmer, ending up mid 60's next weekend.
FWD thinks theres a chance if its slower moving. It won't be that cold but cold cores have their own cold air like Lubbock yesterday
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Brent wrote:Lagreeneyes03 wrote:bubba hotep wrote:00z Euro and FV3 are much more interesting for N. Texas than this last system, IMO. The last system delivered for parts of W. Texas and it would've probably been a blockbuster system for all of Texas in late January or February but there just wasn't enough cold air, which is typical for early Dec. There still isn't much cold air this go round but this next system looks much more dynamic and we could see some heavy wet snow in the backside favored areas.
By next Tuesday afternoon there are three pieces of energy to watch, with each playing a role in the final solution.
At least we have another system to watch
Is anyone picking up on it? It seems the week will just get warmer and warmer, ending up mid 60's next weekend.
FWD thinks theres a chance if its slower moving. It won't be that cold but cold cores have their own cold air like Lubbock yesterday
12z Euro came in a bit more progressive and we need things to slow down for us to have any chance with this system. And to clarify, we are starting off with really really low chances as it is lol
The 12z FV3 still gives us a fighting chance
vs Euro
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
This is probably going to be one of the deeper storms we have seen since quite some time, for the time of year. It will probably find cold air above, can we get some surface cold please?
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Euro also has another one at D10. I really like seeing these cutoffs in the models b/c the N. Pacific pattern will start to transition in about a week or so to one that favors colder air in WCAN. Keep the cutoffs rolling and we are bound to score eventually.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
We need to pick it up a bit, if we want to hit 100 pages in December! 300 Page Winter or Bust
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
bubba hotep wrote:Euro also has another one at D10. I really like seeing these cutoffs in the models b/c the N. Pacific pattern will start to transition in about a week or so to one that favors colder air in WCAN. Keep the cutoffs rolling and we are bound to score eventually.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018120912/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png
The Greenland high latitude blocking has really helped to allow storms be strong.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
bubba hotep wrote:12z Euro came in a bit more progressive and we need things to slow down for us to have any chance with this system. And to clarify, we are starting off with really really low chances as it is lol
The 12z FV3 still gives us a fighting chance
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018120912/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_19.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018120912/fv3p_z500aNorm_eus_20.png
vs Euro
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018120912/ecmwf_z500aNorm_eus_6.png
That is an insanely deep upper low. You would think it could find stools cold to bring down on its western side. Not gonna bet on it being deep enough su this point though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
bubba hotep wrote:We need to pick it up a bit, if we want to hit 100 pages in December! 300 Page Winter or Bust
If we get one of these potential storms near Christmas this place will blow up
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- ThunderSleetDreams
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Christmas and beyond look very interesting on the FV3 and GFS... FV3 has a 1055 High barreling south on Christmas Day. GFS shows highs in the 40s.
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#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Ralph's Weather wrote:bubba hotep wrote:12z Euro came in a bit more progressive and we need things to slow down for us to have any chance with this system. And to clarify, we are starting off with really really low chances as it is lol
The 12z FV3 still gives us a fighting chance
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018120912/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_19.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018120912/fv3p_z500aNorm_eus_20.png
vs Euro
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018120912/ecmwf_z500aNorm_eus_6.png
That is an insanely deep upper low. You would think it could find stools cold to bring down on its western side. Not gonna bet on it being deep enough su this point though.
yeah kind of surprised it hasn't really shown any snow on the backside but I guess its a bit too warm
If we're getting those in a colder pattern this thread will be on fire
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
00z GFS, just need to find some colder air
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- Haris
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
I'll help out getting this place to 100pages this month by posting this
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
March 21st 2010. We can work a slush if cold air can be found. Maybe 540dm or lower?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
hmmmm the 0z Euro has some snow west of DFW and just west of the 35 corridor down to NW of Austin early Friday morning, there's a bullseye around 8 inches near Abilene
very localized band surrounded by rain
It looks like the storm is slower this run which works in our favor. The snow is all overnight Thursday into sunrise Friday then goes away
very localized band surrounded by rain
It looks like the storm is slower this run which works in our favor. The snow is all overnight Thursday into sunrise Friday then goes away
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