Florida Weather
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Florida Weather
There are two very significant squall lines at this hour:
There is a wicked looking squall line which is currently moving through the Big Bend area and extends down into Apalachee Bay. This line moved thoigh Apalachicola in the past hour. It looks like a rope-like line of storms. A very unique looking squall line on radar.
A pretty significant squall line is moving onshore and extending along the Gulf Coast near Cedar Key south to off shore of Naples.
Will monitor closely..
There is a wicked looking squall line which is currently moving through the Big Bend area and extends down into Apalachee Bay. This line moved thoigh Apalachicola in the past hour. It looks like a rope-like line of storms. A very unique looking squall line on radar.
A pretty significant squall line is moving onshore and extending along the Gulf Coast near Cedar Key south to off shore of Naples.
Will monitor closely..
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- SFLcane
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Re: Florida Weather
I knew it that made no sence adding that enhanced risk for southern Florida the threat appears much further north as the gfs has been showing. No biggie for sfl some rainy windy weather.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Florida Weather
Latest 06Z GFS deepens the surface Low Pressure to 985 mb over Central Georgia tomorrow morning at 06Z. WOW!! That is quite impressive for our latitude!!
This would be incredible for this area for December. The NWS Jax office indeed mentioned in their early morning discussion that barometric pressure records will likely be broken across the area for December ever, if the GFS verifies.
The lowest barometric pressure reading I ever had measured here was 979 mb, and that.was during the great March 1993 Superstorm.
So, this current system indeed could have its own.unique mark in these parts. There most certainly will be wind advisories for Friday state wide and the severe weather threat definitely is enhanced for North and Central Florida, especially this afternoon into early evening. I would not be shocked at all looking at the latest GFS that wind gusts in the 40mph -50 mph occurs across the region. especially Friday morning, as the intense Low Pressure area moves by just to our north.
This is going to be. quite a busy day now up through the next 24 hours or so to say the least.
This would be incredible for this area for December. The NWS Jax office indeed mentioned in their early morning discussion that barometric pressure records will likely be broken across the area for December ever, if the GFS verifies.
The lowest barometric pressure reading I ever had measured here was 979 mb, and that.was during the great March 1993 Superstorm.
So, this current system indeed could have its own.unique mark in these parts. There most certainly will be wind advisories for Friday state wide and the severe weather threat definitely is enhanced for North and Central Florida, especially this afternoon into early evening. I would not be shocked at all looking at the latest GFS that wind gusts in the 40mph -50 mph occurs across the region. especially Friday morning, as the intense Low Pressure area moves by just to our north.
This is going to be. quite a busy day now up through the next 24 hours or so to say the least.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:04 am, edited 5 times in total.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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- SFLcane
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Re: Florida Weather
No decent model gfs,euro is showing severe wx across Dade or Broward. Expecting a broken line if that
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Florida Weather

I will say this: Should the GFS ends up being right, we will have a potpourri of potential severe weather around here into tonight.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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Re: Florida Weather
All the weather is north of Lake O and another non event for South Florida storm cancel for Dade,broward,and palm beach. Maybe some 20 to 30 mph in winds and a 15 minute rain from a broken line of showers.its amazing how the weather just stops at the lake.
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- AdamFirst
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Re: Florida Weather
The main squall line isn't projected to push through until later tonight - that part isn't in radar range yet.
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Re: Florida Weather
boca wrote:All the weather is north of Lake O and another non event for South Florida storm cancel for Dade,broward,and palm beach. Maybe some 20 to 30 mph in winds and a 15 minute rain from a broken line of showers.its amazing how the weather just stops at the lake.
Ahhh.... Sunny South Florida. Will probably be sunny down there all day. Maybe no rain at all. No way the wind exceeds 5 mph. Got a convertible? Put the top down and go out for a drive tonight!!
What a great time to take the kayak offshore for a pleasant outing........ ARE YOU REALLY SERIOUS?
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Andy D
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
Re: Florida Weather
This from this morning Melbourne NWS Discussion
for Thursday night into Friday.
GFS/ECMWF/6KM WRF models all develop a very tight sfc pgrad acrs the FL Peninsula, on the order of 10-12MB btwn KJAX-KMFL. By comparison, the lcl geostrophic approximation tables for
KJAX-KMFL only go up to 8.5mb, and suggest 35 mph sustained winds at that. Will cap winds at 20-25mph for now, but these may increase
with subsequent fcsts....... (perhaps Boca will somehow escape this pressure gradient as well
for Thursday night into Friday.
GFS/ECMWF/6KM WRF models all develop a very tight sfc pgrad acrs the FL Peninsula, on the order of 10-12MB btwn KJAX-KMFL. By comparison, the lcl geostrophic approximation tables for
KJAX-KMFL only go up to 8.5mb, and suggest 35 mph sustained winds at that. Will cap winds at 20-25mph for now, but these may increase
with subsequent fcsts....... (perhaps Boca will somehow escape this pressure gradient as well

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Andy D
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
Re: Florida Weather
chaser1 wrote:boca wrote:All the weather is north of Lake O and another non event for South Florida storm cancel for Dade,broward,and palm beach. Maybe some 20 to 30 mph in winds and a 15 minute rain from a broken line of showers.its amazing how the weather just stops at the lake.
Ahhh.... Sunny South Florida. Will probably be sunny down there all day. Maybe no rain at all. No way the wind exceeds 5 mph. Got a convertible? Put the top down and go out for a drive tonight!!
What a great time to take the kayak offshore for a pleasant outing........ ARE YOU REALLY SERIOUS?
Part of my statement was from frustration of looking at the radar and seeing everything moving NE bypassing us down here. We will get the tail of the squall line but nothing like you guys in Jacksonville, Tampa,and Orlando are getting. So I wasn’t totally serious chaser 1 just frustrated because we are in a moderate drought down here.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Florida Weather
Yeah boca we are just beginning to receive moderate to at times heavy rain now here at my home. Looking at radar, this large area of moderate to embedded heavy rain extends south all the way to Interstate 4. We are socked in through the remainder of the morning. The whole rain area is moving north/northeadt in our direction. We are looking at rain amounts of 2-4 inches likely.The warm front lifting north through the region is the trigger for the large area of rain for this morning. I am thinking we may see the Flood Watches in the region upgrafed to warnings in some of the North Florida interior counties.
We all will have to look toward the west later today as the Low Pressure area, and the cold front extending down from it, begins to really intensify this afternoon and the upper trough axis really sharply amplifies south into the Northeast GOM. This is when the anticipated squall line will develop and propagate east/southeast across the region. So, late this afternoon into early evening is likely the time the potential of nasty, severe weather will commence......
We all will have to look toward the west later today as the Low Pressure area, and the cold front extending down from it, begins to really intensify this afternoon and the upper trough axis really sharply amplifies south into the Northeast GOM. This is when the anticipated squall line will develop and propagate east/southeast across the region. So, late this afternoon into early evening is likely the time the potential of nasty, severe weather will commence......
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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- gatorcane
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Re: Florida Weather
Yep made little sense why we were in the enhanced severe weather shading here in metro SE Florida. Latest GFS runs looks to be weaker and even further north with the best dynamics. Seems the Euro kinda caved to the GFS at the last minute.
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- Bocadude85
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Re: Florida Weather
I think some may be surprised by the squall line that pushes through S.Fla this evening, any day time heating will destabilize the atmosphere even more then it already is, and with a 100+kts jet in place the thunderstorms in the squall line will have no problem bring those strong winds to the surface.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Florida Weather
Bocadude85 wrote:I think some may be surprised by the squall line that pushes through S.Fla this evening, any day time heating will destabilize the atmosphere even more then it already is, and with a 100+kts jet in place the thunderstorms in the squall line will have no problem bring those strong winds to the surface.
Exactly! 120 KT jet to be more exact. This is why all of you down into South Florida need to still take this situation seriously. South Florida will definitely have more opportunity for sufficient daytime heating today and the atmosphere will be likely very unstable, moreso than up here. I think the squall line potential in South Florida tonight is quite probable indeed!
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
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Re: Florida Weather
boca wrote:All the weather is north of Lake O and another non event for South Florida storm cancel for Dade,broward,and palm beach. Maybe some 20 to 30 mph in winds and a 15 minute rain from a broken line of showers.its amazing how the weather just stops at the lake.
Groan....I hope it's not that, just another standard frontal passage for us. Already, I feel like the rain from the warm front that lifted north didn't even materialize.
There are some storms well off the coast of Dade and Broward at the moment, causing marine warnings......but zippo on the mainland.
Last edited by Patrick99 on Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Florida Weather
Radar now showing a developing squall line of storms from Starke, Fl, just northeast of Gainesville, south to just east of Lakeland. Actually, this line extrnfs farther southwest to Fort Myers. This has developed just in the past hour. Orlando metro will be impacted by this squall line within the next hour.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
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- Bocadude85
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Re: Florida Weather
Good discussion from the SPC on the evolution of the SVR threat for S.Fla
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
.FL...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to move
northeastward across the outlook area through this evening in two
primary bands:
1. Morning activity now over the TBW/SRQ areas and extending
southwestward across the Gulf. A marginal tornado threat exists in
the next hour or two with this activity as it moves inland.
2. A longer band in both spatial length and timespan, expected to
consolidate over the Gulf and west-central FL behind the morning
convection and initially ahead of the front. This evening and
overnight, the front should catch up and cause some eastward
acceleration of the resulting QLCS as a whole across the remainder
of eastern/southern FL.
Following the morning activity, the main band should move into an
increasingly high-thetae air mass over southwest, east-central and
southeast FL. Meanwhile, over central FL, this QLCS will have more
limited recovery time with weaker buoyancy. A moist, southerly
Caribbean return-flow fetch will serve both to destabilize the
boundary layer and keep winds backed enough to maintain favorably
large low-level hodographs. This is in notable contrast to many
cool-season frontal-passage convective scenarios in FL, where
surface flow substantially veers and reduces SRH/convergence.
Instead, the general mass response to the low-latitude mid/upper
processes will maintain a favorable CAPE/shear parameter spaces
ahead of the line for bow/LEWP formations, embedded supercells and
QLCS mesovortices, with associated tornadic and nontornadic wind
potential.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
.FL...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to move
northeastward across the outlook area through this evening in two
primary bands:
1. Morning activity now over the TBW/SRQ areas and extending
southwestward across the Gulf. A marginal tornado threat exists in
the next hour or two with this activity as it moves inland.
2. A longer band in both spatial length and timespan, expected to
consolidate over the Gulf and west-central FL behind the morning
convection and initially ahead of the front. This evening and
overnight, the front should catch up and cause some eastward
acceleration of the resulting QLCS as a whole across the remainder
of eastern/southern FL.
Following the morning activity, the main band should move into an
increasingly high-thetae air mass over southwest, east-central and
southeast FL. Meanwhile, over central FL, this QLCS will have more
limited recovery time with weaker buoyancy. A moist, southerly
Caribbean return-flow fetch will serve both to destabilize the
boundary layer and keep winds backed enough to maintain favorably
large low-level hodographs. This is in notable contrast to many
cool-season frontal-passage convective scenarios in FL, where
surface flow substantially veers and reduces SRH/convergence.
Instead, the general mass response to the low-latitude mid/upper
processes will maintain a favorable CAPE/shear parameter spaces
ahead of the line for bow/LEWP formations, embedded supercells and
QLCS mesovortices, with associated tornadic and nontornadic wind
potential.
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