Florida Weather

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#13521 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 20, 2018 5:41 am

There are two very significant squall lines at this hour:


There is a wicked looking squall line which is currently moving through the Big Bend area and extends down into Apalachee Bay. This line moved thoigh Apalachicola in the past hour. It looks like a rope-like line of storms. A very unique looking squall line on radar.

A pretty significant squall line is moving onshore and extending along the Gulf Coast near Cedar Key south to off shore of Naples.

Will monitor closely..
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Florida Weather

#13522 Postby SFLcane » Thu Dec 20, 2018 5:47 am

I knew it that made no sence adding that enhanced risk for southern Florida the threat appears much further north as the gfs has been showing. No biggie for sfl some rainy windy weather.
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#13523 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:05 am

Latest 06Z GFS deepens the surface Low Pressure to 985 mb over Central Georgia tomorrow morning at 06Z. WOW!! That is quite impressive for our latitude!!

This would be incredible for this area for December. The NWS Jax office indeed mentioned in their early morning discussion that barometric pressure records will likely be broken across the area for December ever, if the GFS verifies.

The lowest barometric pressure reading I ever had measured here was 979 mb, and that.was during the great March 1993 Superstorm.

So, this current system indeed could have its own.unique mark in these parts. There most certainly will be wind advisories for Friday state wide and the severe weather threat definitely is enhanced for North and Central Florida, especially this afternoon into early evening. I would not be shocked at all looking at the latest GFS that wind gusts in the 40mph -50 mph occurs across the region. especially Friday morning, as the intense Low Pressure area moves by just to our north.

This is going to be. quite a busy day now up through the next 24 hours or so to say the least.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:04 am, edited 5 times in total.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Florida Weather

#13524 Postby SFLcane » Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:09 am

No decent model gfs,euro is showing severe wx across Dade or Broward. Expecting a broken line if that
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#13525 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:16 am

:uarrow: Well, SFL Cane, we will know very soon, by later tonight for that matter, if the GFS has been closest to being right about this storm.

I will say this: Should the GFS ends up being right, we will have a potpourri of potential severe weather around here into tonight.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6369
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: Florida Weather

#13526 Postby boca » Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:30 am

All the weather is north of Lake O and another non event for South Florida storm cancel for Dade,broward,and palm beach. Maybe some 20 to 30 mph in winds and a 15 minute rain from a broken line of showers.its amazing how the weather just stops at the lake.
0 likes   

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#13527 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:41 am

The main squall line isn't projected to push through until later tonight - that part isn't in radar range yet.
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5493
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: Florida Weather

#13528 Postby chaser1 » Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:50 am

boca wrote:All the weather is north of Lake O and another non event for South Florida storm cancel for Dade,broward,and palm beach. Maybe some 20 to 30 mph in winds and a 15 minute rain from a broken line of showers.its amazing how the weather just stops at the lake.


Ahhh.... Sunny South Florida. Will probably be sunny down there all day. Maybe no rain at all. No way the wind exceeds 5 mph. Got a convertible? Put the top down and go out for a drive tonight!!
What a great time to take the kayak offshore for a pleasant outing........ ARE YOU REALLY SERIOUS?
0 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5493
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: Florida Weather

#13529 Postby chaser1 » Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:58 am

This from this morning Melbourne NWS Discussion
for Thursday night into Friday.

GFS/ECMWF/6KM WRF models all develop a very tight sfc pgrad acrs the FL Peninsula, on the order of 10-12MB btwn KJAX-KMFL. By comparison, the lcl geostrophic approximation tables for
KJAX-KMFL only go up to 8.5mb, and suggest 35 mph sustained winds at that. Will cap winds at 20-25mph for now, but these may increase
with subsequent fcsts....... (perhaps Boca will somehow escape this pressure gradient as well :lol:
0 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6369
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: Florida Weather

#13530 Postby boca » Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:05 am

chaser1 wrote:
boca wrote:All the weather is north of Lake O and another non event for South Florida storm cancel for Dade,broward,and palm beach. Maybe some 20 to 30 mph in winds and a 15 minute rain from a broken line of showers.its amazing how the weather just stops at the lake.


Ahhh.... Sunny South Florida. Will probably be sunny down there all day. Maybe no rain at all. No way the wind exceeds 5 mph. Got a convertible? Put the top down and go out for a drive tonight!!
What a great time to take the kayak offshore for a pleasant outing........ ARE YOU REALLY SERIOUS?



Part of my statement was from frustration of looking at the radar and seeing everything moving NE bypassing us down here. We will get the tail of the squall line but nothing like you guys in Jacksonville, Tampa,and Orlando are getting. So I wasn’t totally serious chaser 1 just frustrated because we are in a moderate drought down here.
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#13531 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:19 am

Yeah boca we are just beginning to receive moderate to at times heavy rain now here at my home. Looking at radar, this large area of moderate to embedded heavy rain extends south all the way to Interstate 4. We are socked in through the remainder of the morning. The whole rain area is moving north/northeadt in our direction. We are looking at rain amounts of 2-4 inches likely.The warm front lifting north through the region is the trigger for the large area of rain for this morning. I am thinking we may see the Flood Watches in the region upgrafed to warnings in some of the North Florida interior counties.

We all will have to look toward the west later today as the Low Pressure area, and the cold front extending down from it, begins to really intensify this afternoon and the upper trough axis really sharply amplifies south into the Northeast GOM. This is when the anticipated squall line will develop and propagate east/southeast across the region. So, late this afternoon into early evening is likely the time the potential of nasty, severe weather will commence......
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#13532 Postby gatorcane » Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:41 am

Yep made little sense why we were in the enhanced severe weather shading here in metro SE Florida. Latest GFS runs looks to be weaker and even further north with the best dynamics. Seems the Euro kinda caved to the GFS at the last minute.
0 likes   

TheStormExpert

Re: Florida Weather

#13533 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:43 am

1st Tornado Warning occurring for Manatee County, FL right now.
0 likes   

User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: Florida Weather

#13534 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:06 am

I think some may be surprised by the squall line that pushes through S.Fla this evening, any day time heating will destabilize the atmosphere even more then it already is, and with a 100+kts jet in place the thunderstorms in the squall line will have no problem bring those strong winds to the surface.
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#13535 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:19 am

Bocadude85 wrote:I think some may be surprised by the squall line that pushes through S.Fla this evening, any day time heating will destabilize the atmosphere even more then it already is, and with a 100+kts jet in place the thunderstorms in the squall line will have no problem bring those strong winds to the surface.


Exactly! 120 KT jet to be more exact. This is why all of you down into South Florida need to still take this situation seriously. South Florida will definitely have more opportunity for sufficient daytime heating today and the atmosphere will be likely very unstable, moreso than up here. I think the squall line potential in South Florida tonight is quite probable indeed!
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

Patrick99
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1772
Joined: Mon May 24, 2004 3:43 pm
Location: SW Broward, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#13536 Postby Patrick99 » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:29 am

boca wrote:All the weather is north of Lake O and another non event for South Florida storm cancel for Dade,broward,and palm beach. Maybe some 20 to 30 mph in winds and a 15 minute rain from a broken line of showers.its amazing how the weather just stops at the lake.


Groan....I hope it's not that, just another standard frontal passage for us. Already, I feel like the rain from the warm front that lifted north didn't even materialize.

There are some storms well off the coast of Dade and Broward at the moment, causing marine warnings......but zippo on the mainland.
Last edited by Patrick99 on Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Florida Weather

#13537 Postby SFLcane » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:31 am

NAM--- :eek:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#13538 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:54 am

Radar now showing a developing squall line of storms from Starke, Fl, just northeast of Gainesville, south to just east of Lakeland. Actually, this line extrnfs farther southwest to Fort Myers. This has developed just in the past hour. Orlando metro will be impacted by this squall line within the next hour.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: Florida Weather

#13539 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:06 am

Good discussion from the SPC on the evolution of the SVR threat for S.Fla

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

.FL...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to move
northeastward across the outlook area through this evening in two
primary bands:
1. Morning activity now over the TBW/SRQ areas and extending
southwestward across the Gulf. A marginal tornado threat exists in
the next hour or two with this activity as it moves inland.
2. A longer band in both spatial length and timespan, expected to
consolidate over the Gulf and west-central FL behind the morning
convection and initially ahead of the front. This evening and
overnight, the front should catch up and cause some eastward
acceleration of the resulting QLCS as a whole across the remainder
of eastern/southern FL.

Following the morning activity, the main band should move into an
increasingly high-thetae air mass over southwest, east-central and
southeast FL. Meanwhile, over central FL, this QLCS will have more
limited recovery time with weaker buoyancy. A moist, southerly
Caribbean return-flow fetch will serve both to destabilize the
boundary layer and keep winds backed enough to maintain favorably
large low-level hodographs. This is in notable contrast to many
cool-season frontal-passage convective scenarios in FL, where
surface flow substantially veers and reduces SRH/convergence.
Instead, the general mass response to the low-latitude mid/upper
processes will maintain a favorable CAPE/shear parameter spaces
ahead of the line for bow/LEWP formations, embedded supercells and
QLCS mesovortices, with associated tornadic and nontornadic wind
potential.
1 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Florida Weather

#13540 Postby SFLcane » Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:27 am

Full sunshine here in pompano...will have consequences later today.
0 likes   


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot] and 10 guests