Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Longhornmaniac8]

Maybe DFW airport and Love Field? Not sure what TAF for the Aviation discussion means. Any pilots care to opine?

I was an aviation forecaster from 1984-1998. TAF stands for Terminal Aerodrome Forecast. See https://aviationweather.gov/static/help/taf-decode.php

It's a forecast of ceilings, winds, and visibility for pilots.

Thanks wxman57, so when they say above freezing for TAFs in the discussion that's airport and airplane specific, not referring to the surrounding areas?

TAFs have nothing to do with specific aircraft. Technically, a TAF is only valid for a 5 sm radius from the station, but it's not as if it suddenly stops being relevant at 6 sm away.

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[WacoWx]

So NWS FWD has a hard call to make on marginal situations like this. If they forecast the sky is falling and nothing then that's bad. If they forecast nothing and something happens then people yell too. Either way as we all know people still have to know to take extra care when the possibility is there. As connected as we are in today's world I always wonder why I see that one college kid in shorts and a tshirt on a day like today. Blows my mind..... That being said the NWS has a job of keeping us safe but also setting realistic expectations. Sure in today's world we know about accidents like the one on 820. Take that back 10 years ago and no one on this board would know about it. We have access to real time information that a few years ago we never did. I think seems to add to people's reasoning as to why this or that when it comes to watches and warning for winter storms in Texas. Just my soap box rant.....

You’re right of course, nws hasn’t been far off on the forecast so far, I do hope they are wrong about high temps today.

It is ironic, however, that the fw nws cancelled the wwa at a time when they could walk outside and see multiple accidents at the 35 820 interchange. That’s what watches are for, we know a warning isn’t required.

They're model hugging, there's no doubt about that!! Temps haven't budged from 31 F at my local since early morning. Once the sun goes down, this could get bad if they don't take into account real time obs

Unless the precip stops as the temp goes below 32...

Are we supposed to have another wave come through tomorrow? It looks like the back end is on our doorstep in DFW in a few hours.

[wxman57]

Thanks wxman57, so when they say above freezing for TAFs in the discussion that's airport and airplane specific, not referring to the surrounding areas?

TAFs are specific to individual airports. Planes won't be landing away form the airports (they hope). That info is so that pilots are aware of any potential need for de-icing of the aircraft prior to take-off at the airports.

[wxman57]

Are we supposed to have another wave come through tomorrow? It looks like the back end is on our doorstep in DFW in a few hours.

Yes, another wave of precip associated with the passing upper low starts tomorrow morning. Air will be colder aloft with the passage of the upper low. Better chance for sleet or a few snowflakes.

[HockeyTx82]

Thanks wxman57, so when they say above freezing for TAFs in the discussion that's airport and airplane specific, not referring to the surrounding areas?

TAFs are specific to individual airports. Planes won't be landing away form the airports (they hope). That info is so that pilots are aware of any potential need for de-icing of the aircraft prior to take-off at the airports.

Yes landing at airports would be good. I was thinking along the lines of de-icing as you referenced in my airplane and airport statement. Learning something new everyday. Always appreciate your help and insight. Just bring me some snow, please.

[dhweather]

Speaking of how models have been performing (we are now), I posted a comparison of 500 mb flow in the 240hr forecast from the 12Z Dec. 26th ECMWF & GFS (original image here - http://wxman57.com/images/EC-GFS.JPG).

Here was my post:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2730641#p2730641

Well, those two 240hr forecasts were for this Friday evening. Euro had a deep upper low over south TX, but the GFS had a trof much farther east with a ridge over Texas. Looking at the 60 hr EC & GFS forecasts today, the Euro was way off in the position of the upper low as it is now predicted to be over central Tennessee vs. south TX. GFS still has a trof there across the SE U.S, but may be too weak with the upper low. Euro now has a ridge over Texas Friday evening, as per the 10-day GFS on Dec. 26th.

Bottom line is that you should be very careful believing any forecast beyond 3-5 days. Models aren't handling the pattern well.

First of all, Happy New Year!


Let me be blunt here, I'm good at that, my beloved heat miser is being very nice.

DO NOT BELIEVE ON MODEL OUTPUT BEYOND 3-5 DAYS, they are more wrong than right, and will significantly change run to run. There are rare circumstances where they will be close, but most of the time, they are wrong. Why do you think the NWS does not issue a 14 day forecast, since the models go out that far? If you carefully read the the AFD's , you will see where the pro mets lose confidence beyond five days. You will see commentary like "in the extended (meaning 5-7 days) models have a trough coming through, broadly brushed low end pops" - they don't put much faith > 5 days in the models either.

[Jarodm12]

If temps do not rise above freezing by 3pm in an hour and a half there's no mechanism that should cause them to rise if anything they should began to fall as night approaches , with that said hrrr is just way too warm and still is showing snow tomorrow, this could end up being a significant event.

[snowballzzz]

Yea this air mass is deeper and colder than the models are showing. Surface temps are running 2-6 degrees warm on the Euro vs reality. There is no reason to even look at the globals for this event at this point, though even the meso and hi res models are running warm. HRRR is doing terrible on temps. NAM and RGEM are at least close but still too warm.

It’s really strange to see every single model incorrect with temperatures, especially by this much. Wonder what’s causing that...and what that entails for the next 36 hours...

Models typically fail in predicting temperatures when precip is falling. They're always too warm, not taking the constant rain into consideration.

Makes sense to me, but just to my Northwest (Northwest of Ft Worth), we have temperatures that have been completely steady around 30-31 with no precipitation within the past few hours.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This winter sure is not playing out like expected. Have to love the weather for the many variables it brings. I still think the funk comes upon us in the second half of January for the rest of "winter." I've been out of town, CO/AZ where i did more sinter driving then good weather driving. Saw about 2 ft of snow and came back with no injuries from skiing. So now i'm back to will these models where we need them to be

[dhweather]

If temps do not rise above freezing by 3pm in an hour and a half there's no mechanism that should cause them to rise if anything they should began to fall as night approaches , with that said hrrr is just way too warm and still is showing snow tomorrow, this could end up being a significant event.

Where are you located? For Dallas, Collin and Rockwall counties, it is above freezing, the cloud cover will limit radiational cooling, and there's nothing to induce further CAA, so overnight temperatures will probably stay close to where they are now, generally in the mid 30's.

[Jarodm12]

If temps do not rise above freezing by 3pm in an hour and a half there's no mechanism that should cause them to rise if anything they should began to fall as night approaches , with that said hrrr is just way too warm and still is showing snow tomorrow, this could end up being a significant event.

Where are you located? For Dallas, Collin and Rockwall counties, it is above freezing, the cloud cover will limit radiational cooling, and there's nothing to induce further CAA, so overnight temperatures will probably stay close to where they are now, generally in the mid 30's.

I'm in Durant Oklahoma

[dhweather]

If temps do not rise above freezing by 3pm in an hour and a half there's no mechanism that should cause them to rise if anything they should began to fall as night approaches , with that said hrrr is just way too warm and still is showing snow tomorrow, this could end up being a significant event.

Where are you located? For Dallas, Collin and Rockwall counties, it is above freezing, the cloud cover will limit radiational cooling, and there's nothing to induce further CAA, so overnight temperatures will probably stay close to where they are now, generally in the mid 30's.

I'm in Durant Oklahoma

Good to know. You could put that in your profile so others will know.

[dhweather]

In other news, Spring is around the corner, and I've started a 2019 Texas Spring thread viewtopic.php?f=24&t=120169

FWD is once again doing a road show of spotter training all across their CWA, the schedule can be found here: https://www.weather.gov/fwd/skywarnsch?sptrsch

This is a great opportunity to learn from the mets from the Fort Worth office, it is free, only costing you your time. If you've never been or want to learn more about severe weather, I'd highly recommend attending.

[Jarodm12]

Where are you located? For Dallas, Collin and Rockwall counties, it is above freezing, the cloud cover will limit radiational cooling, and there's nothing to induce further CAA, so overnight temperatures will probably stay close to where they are now, generally in the mid 30's.

I'm in Durant Oklahoma

Good to know. You could put that in your profile so others will know.

K I will

[Brent]

18z NAM north/northwest of the metro looking really good

[TheProfessor]

Wow, the trees here are completely glazed in ice! Looks really pretty!

[DFW Stormwatcher]

If temps do not rise above freezing by 3pm in an hour and a half there's no mechanism that should cause them to rise if anything they should began to fall as night approaches , with that said hrrr is just way too warm and still is showing snow tomorrow, this could end up being a significant event.

Yea, you kinda have to be specific about your location. Your weather can be significantly different than ours just down the road from you in DFW. I think that makes our itch that much stronger because snow often falls just north of the red river. Close enough for it to sting real good, like this week for instance:)

[DFW Stormwatcher]

18z NAM north/northwest of the metro looking really good

http://i63.tinypic.com/dxha83.png

Aren’t you in Wylie Brent? That model looks like it curves right around that area:)

It also puts a bullseye right on Durant, ok.....looks Durant would be in the hunt for 4-6 inches though if the model were to verify.

[Ralph's Weather]

I am amazed at how bad the Euro has been today with surface temps. It has only a tiny pocket of sub freezing air for this afternoon around Abilene when in fact most of western Texas is in the 20s.

[gboudx]

Warm nose isn't as deep as modeled freezing rain sleet and snow in North West Durant

We have some friends driving on 69 down from Muskogee. I checked the official OK road conditions website for weather impacts, but don't see anything. Anything to report from Durant? They're coming through Durant on the way down here to Rockwall.