Texas Winter 2018-2019

[bubba hotep]

Congrats to those that got snow!

[Ntxw]

Officially 2.5" at WF and 4.5" in Oklahoma City.

[bubba hotep]

Another view,

[Yukon Cornelius]

[harp]

Just watched JB's new video. He's convinced it's coming. Has snow all the way down to the Gulf Coast in the very last part of the video.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Is this what they call a "barbell winter?" Cold at the beginning- warm in the middle- cold at the end. I dont remember the exact years, but we had similar winter to this in the 2000's. Still waiting on the MJO and the results from the SSW....

[orangeblood]

We've seen it time and time again over the years...when you see MEAN negative anomalies show up in the longer term like this, probability levels begin rising for potential severe cold outbreaks. There are some wildly cold GFS members towards this end of this run, particularly in Canada

[harp]

I wonder when this is going to show up in the operational models?

[orangeblood]

I wonder when this is going to show up in the operational models?

For Arctic Outbreaks, It can show up on any given run but nothing to take too serious until we get less than 9-10 days out. For individual winter storms, that drops to 4-5 days out

[harp]

I wonder when this is going to show up in the operational models?

It can show up on any given run but nothing to take too serious until we get less than 9-10 days out

Ok ,thanks for the response. I'm new here but just as weather nerdy as the rest of ya!

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has snow threatening D-FW area NEXT Sunday (13th). I'm sure you'll get some snow out of that storm...

[cheezyWXguy]

12Z GFS has snow threatening D-FW area NEXT Sunday (13th). I'm sure you'll get some snow out of that storm...

Ha, I just saw that. Looks like a redo of what we just dealt with. Not holding my breath this time...

[Portastorm]

12Z GFS has snow threatening D-FW area NEXT Sunday (13th). I'm sure you'll get some snow out of that storm...

(Referee throws yellow flag and says): "Personal foul. Unsportsmanslike conduct by wxman57. 15 yards and a first down for the Metroplexers."

[Cerlin]

12Z GFS has snow threatening D-FW area NEXT Sunday (13th). I'm sure you'll get some snow out of that storm...

(Referee throws yellow flag and says): "Personal foul. Unsportsmanslike conduct by wxman57. 15 yards and a first down for the Metroplexers."

We need that first down because we haven’t won a game in years!! 0-16 last year again!

[spencer817]

12Z GFS has snow threatening D-FW area NEXT Sunday (13th). I'm sure you'll get some snow out of that storm...

(Referee throws yellow flag and says): "Personal foul. Unsportsmanslike conduct by wxman57. 15 yards and a first down for the Metroplexers."

We need that first down because we haven’t won a game in years!! 0-16 last year again!

0-3 this year too, some close games but no wins!

[Texas Snowman]

12Z GFS has snow threatening D-FW area NEXT Sunday (13th). I'm sure you'll get some snow out of that storm...

(Referee throws yellow flag and says): "Personal foul. Unsportsmanslike conduct by wxman57. 15 yards and a first down for the Metroplexers."

Personally, I think that was targeting by Wxman57. 15 yard penalty and Wxman57 is disqualified from the contest.

[EnnisTx]

12Z GFS has snow threatening D-FW area NEXT Sunday (13th). I'm sure you'll get some snow out of that storm...

(Referee throws yellow flag and says): "Personal foul. Unsportsmanslike conduct by wxman57. 15 yards and a first down for the Metroplexers."

You forgot to mention that's was his 100 plus unsportsmanlike like penalty..... He has also been ejected!!!!!

[Ntxw]

Here is your first sign the Pacific is changing below with the SOI crash. Tahiti's pressures is lowering while Darwin's is rising. These mean tropical convection is moving out of the Maritimes/WPAC and into the Central Pacific. Continuous retrogression of the Aleutian low to follow the convection pullback from the IO which raises heights over western North America. SSW is a very slow process as the MSLP configuration changes from warmer Arctic to colder Continents. We like to think of SSW as instant game changers but top down events are not. It took heat fluxes from October to November to get the vortex perturbed then split didn't happen until this past week. The circulations will take a few weeks longer to propagate downward as it is not a bottom-up event.



There is a small set of years with warm ENSO and a flip from +Dec soi to -Jan since 1950. Those years are 2003-2004, 1993-1994, 1969-1970, 1968-1969, 1965-1966. These are not all analogs only the complete reversal of the SOI in a particular ENSO state.

[Tireman4]

12Z GFS has snow threatening D-FW area NEXT Sunday (13th). I'm sure you'll get some snow out of that storm...

(Referee throws yellow flag and says): "Personal foul. Unsportsmanslike conduct by wxman57. 15 yards and a first down for the Metroplexers."

You forgot to mention that's was his 100 plus unsportsmanlike like penalty..... He has also been ejected!!!!!

And he is on notice that he could be suspended from the Snow League...

[Cpv17]

Here is your first sign the Pacific is changing below with the SOI crash. Tahiti's pressures is lowering while Darwin's is rising. These mean tropical convection is moving out of the Maritimes/WPAC and into the Central Pacific. Continuous retrogression of the Aleutian low to follow the convection pullback from the IO which raises heights over western North America. SSW is a very slow process as the MSLP configuration changes from warmer Arctic to colder Continents. We like to think of SSW as instant game changers but top down events are not. It took heat fluxes from October to November to get the vortex perturbed then split didn't happen until this past week. The circulations will take a few weeks longer to propagate downward as it is not a bottom-up event.

https://images2.imgbox.com/ee/d6/sUXJflyd_o.png

There is a small set of years with warm ENSO and a flip from +Dec soi to -Jan since 1950. Those years are 2003-2004, 1993-1994, 1969-1970, 1968-1969, 1965-1966. These are not all analogs only the complete reversal of the SOI in a particular ENSO state.

It’s strange because I saw many winter forecasts that called for below average rain for the NW and it’s been anything but that. They’ve been getting slammed with deluge after deluge and some of the higher elevated areas around there and in far SW Canada have measured snow totals by the dozens.