Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Cpv17]

Op runs of the models aren’t very enthusiastic about another Artic blast coming through mid part of next week.

??? Not sure what Ops you're looking at but the GFS, CMC and Euro are all showing -10 to -20 C below Normal middle of next week. That fits my definition of Arctic Blast

Basically all of them. This weekends front looks quite a big stronger than the one middle part of next week and I thought all along the one next week would be the stronger one. I’m in southeast Texas. The models are all saying mid to upper 20’s here for this weekend and mid to upper 30’s for the one next week.

[CaptinCrunch]

Next Weekend---For Saturday, the 00 UTC GFS remains a bit faster
than the 00 UTC ECMWF and Canadian, but it appears that the latter
two models have trended cooler....more towards the GFS;
especially the ECMWF. This should equate to a cold and very
blustery Saturday for most of North and Central Texas. In fact,
even the raw blended guidance advertises near-Wind Advisory
criteria winds (model blends are typically underwhelming with
regards to wind speeds). With temperatures in the 30s and 40s, the
stiff north wind will make it feel as if it were in the teens and
20s...quite a change from the mid/end of the work week! While
there will be the potential for some mid level moisture on the
backside of the upper low forecast to lift to the east, low levels
will be parched as cold and dry advection overspreads from the
north. What this means is that the chances for any sort of winter
precipitation across North and Central Texas have trended towards
zero at this time. Still, continue to check back for updates to
the forecast. Sunday appears that it`ll remain dry with below
normal temperatures continuing.

Over night lows this Saturday into Sunday, and Sunday into Monday should be in the mid 20's. Not going to worry about next week till end of this one, but highs look to be 10 to 15 below seasonal average, so that's mid to low 40's.

[Ntxw]

Op runs of the models aren’t very enthusiastic about another Artic blast coming through mid part of next week.

??? Not sure what Ops you're looking at but the GFS, CMC and Euro are all showing -10 to -20 C below Normal middle of next week. That fits my definition of Arctic Blast

Basically all of them. This weekends front looks quite a big stronger than the one middle part of next week and I thought all along the one next week would be the stronger one. I’m in southeast Texas. The models are all saying mid to upper 20’s here for this weekend and mid to upper 30’s for the one next week.

This weekend's cold not too long ago looked marginal at best, and has become a much bigger blast. Perhaps next week's will trend colder. In fact the upper trough involved with that one looks deeper and more N-S oriented from the motherlode so I expect the colder trend. Very likely colder than this weekend's surge. 200 hours out of course.

[orangeblood]

Yep, I believe DFW is currently under the longest snowless streak in recorded history....1412 days and counting, last measurable snow (over 0.01 inch) was in March 2015

To say we're getting antsy around here is an understatement!!!

That didn't sound right to me. I checked DFW's reports and they reported 0.1" of snow on January 6th, 2017. That's only 738 days. Of course, Houston reported 0.7" of snow in December of 2017, and another 0.1" last January. You need to move down south to Houston where we get 10 times the snow of D-FW.

haha...noticed I said "over 0.01 inch" but however you slice it, considering DFW averages around 2 inches of snowfall per year depending how far back you go, over the last 3 years DFW is at 1.67% of Normal Snowfall!!!!!

[Cpv17]

Yep, I believe DFW is currently under the longest snowless streak in recorded history....1412 days and counting, last measurable snow (over 0.01 inch) was in March 2015

To say we're getting antsy around here is an understatement!!!

That didn't sound right to me. I checked DFW's reports and they reported 0.1" of snow on January 6th, 2017. That's only 738 days. Of course, Houston reported 0.7" of snow in December of 2017, and another 0.1" last January. You need to move down south to Houston where we get 10 times the snow of D-FW.

haha...noticed I said "over 0.01 inch" but however you slice it, considering DFW averages around 2 inches of snowfall per year depending how far back you go, over the last 3 years DFW is at 1.67% of Normal Snowfall!!!!!

Hey now, there’s a difference between 0.01” and 0.1”.. we’re talking nine tenths

[wxman57]

"New GFS" (FV3) has only upper 20s in D-FW area on Sunday with a light freeze in the D-FW area Monday (32F). Pretty similar to the "old GFS", I suppose.

Euro is colder for DFW Sun/Mon. No precip in the cold air, though:

[Cerlin]

"New GFS" (FV3) has only upper 20s in D-FW area on Sunday with a light freeze in the D-FW area Monday (32F). Pretty similar to the "old GFS", I suppose.

Euro is colder for DFW Sun/Mon. No precip in the cold air, though:
http://wxman57.com/images/DFW-Euro.png

Hoping it trends towards precipitation

[Rgv20]

Yep, I believe DFW is currently under the longest snowless streak in recorded history....1412 days and counting, last measurable snow (over 0.01 inch) was in March 2015

To say we're getting antsy around here is an understatement!!!

That didn't sound right to me. I checked DFW's reports and they reported 0.1" of snow on January 6th, 2017. That's only 738 days. Of course, Houston reported 0.7" of snow in December of 2017, and another 0.1" last January. You need to move down south to Houston where we get 10 times the snow of D-FW.

haha...noticed I said "over 0.01 inch" but however you slice it, considering DFW averages around 2 inches of snowfall per year depending how far back you go, over the last 3 years DFW is at 1.67% of Normal Snowfall!!!!!

Sooner or later DFW snowfall totals will regress to the mean!

[wxman57]

Sooner or later DFW snowfall totals will regress to the mean!

A mini ice age is coming: https://www.sciencealert.com/a-mini-ice-age-is-coming-in-the-next-15-years

[Brent]

That didn't sound right to me. I checked DFW's reports and they reported 0.1" of snow on January 6th, 2017. That's only 738 days. Of course, Houston reported 0.7" of snow in December of 2017, and another 0.1" last January. You need to move down south to Houston where we get 10 times the snow of D-FW.

haha...noticed I said "over 0.01 inch" but however you slice it, considering DFW averages around 2 inches of snowfall per year depending how far back you go, over the last 3 years DFW is at 1.67% of Normal Snowfall!!!!!

Sooner or later DFW snowfall totals will regress to the mean!

It needs to be soon lol

[orangeblood]

That didn't sound right to me. I checked DFW's reports and they reported 0.1" of snow on January 6th, 2017. That's only 738 days. Of course, Houston reported 0.7" of snow in December of 2017, and another 0.1" last January. You need to move down south to Houston where we get 10 times the snow of D-FW.

haha...noticed I said "over 0.01 inch" but however you slice it, considering DFW averages around 2 inches of snowfall per year depending how far back you go, over the last 3 years DFW is at 1.67% of Normal Snowfall!!!!!

Hey now, there’s a difference between 0.01” and 0.1”.. we’re talking nine tenths

haha, good catch, that was a typo but at this point .01" or .1" ...we'd take anything

[Ntxw]

"New GFS" (FV3) has only upper 20s in D-FW area on Sunday with a light freeze in the D-FW area Monday (32F). Pretty similar to the "old GFS", I suppose.

Euro is colder for DFW Sun/Mon. No precip in the cold air, though:
http://wxman57.com/images/DFW-Euro.png

It is automatic to subtract 5-10F from the GFS -OP during cold snaps the past 2 years so Euro is a given! FV3 uncertain for.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

12z GFS kept houston in the 30's all day Sunday and Monday

[Ntxw]

1055mb HP for next Tuesday on the 18z GFS.

[TheProfessor]

Quite the storm for Texas on the 18z GFS

[Rgv20]

18zGFS going all out!

[Portastorm]

I'm going to ask the 18z GFS to marry me ...

[Haris]

[url=
Come ON !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[TheProfessor]

I'm going to ask the 18z GFS to marry me ...

http://i66.tinypic.com/1g4zsk.jpg

That's the stuff of profile pics.

[Texas Snow]

I'm going to ask the 18z GFS to marry me ...

http://i66.tinypic.com/1g4zsk.jpg

Of course that puts DFW on the potential for no snow. Taking it for what it is this far out, I'm on the barely get any line. Glad we cant trust this far out