Texas Winter 2018-2019

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Cpv17
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2981 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:35 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Op runs of the models aren’t very enthusiastic about another Artic blast coming through mid part of next week.


??? Not sure what Ops you're looking at but the GFS, CMC and Euro are all showing -10 to -20 C below Normal middle of next week. That fits my definition of Arctic Blast


Basically all of them. This weekends front looks quite a big stronger than the one middle part of next week and I thought all along the one next week would be the stronger one. I’m in southeast Texas. The models are all saying mid to upper 20’s here for this weekend and mid to upper 30’s for the one next week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2982 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:38 pm

Next Weekend---For Saturday, the 00 UTC GFS remains a bit faster
than the 00 UTC ECMWF and Canadian, but it appears that the latter
two models have trended cooler....more towards the GFS;
especially the ECMWF. This should equate to a cold and very
blustery Saturday for most of North and Central Texas. In fact,
even the raw blended guidance advertises near-Wind Advisory
criteria winds (model blends are typically underwhelming with
regards to wind speeds). With temperatures in the 30s and 40s, the
stiff north wind will make it feel as if it were in the teens and
20s...quite a change from the mid/end of the work week!
While
there will be the potential for some mid level moisture on the
backside of the upper low forecast to lift to the east, low levels
will be parched as cold and dry advection overspreads from the
north. What this means is that the chances for any sort of winter
precipitation across North and Central Texas have trended towards
zero at this time. Still, continue to check back for updates to
the forecast. Sunday appears that it`ll remain dry with below
normal temperatures continuing.


Over night lows this Saturday into Sunday, and Sunday into Monday should be in the mid 20's. Not going to worry about next week till end of this one, but highs look to be 10 to 15 below seasonal average, so that's mid to low 40's.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2983 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:49 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Op runs of the models aren’t very enthusiastic about another Artic blast coming through mid part of next week.


??? Not sure what Ops you're looking at but the GFS, CMC and Euro are all showing -10 to -20 C below Normal middle of next week. That fits my definition of Arctic Blast


Basically all of them. This weekends front looks quite a big stronger than the one middle part of next week and I thought all along the one next week would be the stronger one. I’m in southeast Texas. The models are all saying mid to upper 20’s here for this weekend and mid to upper 30’s for the one next week.


This weekend's cold not too long ago looked marginal at best, and has become a much bigger blast. Perhaps next week's will trend colder. In fact the upper trough involved with that one looks deeper and more N-S oriented from the motherlode so I expect the colder trend. Very likely colder than this weekend's surge. 200 hours out of course.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2984 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:50 pm

wxman57 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Yep, I believe DFW is currently under the longest snowless streak in recorded history....1412 days and counting, last measurable snow (over 0.01 inch) was in March 2015

To say we're getting antsy around here is an understatement!!!


That didn't sound right to me. I checked DFW's reports and they reported 0.1" of snow on January 6th, 2017. That's only 738 days. Of course, Houston reported 0.7" of snow in December of 2017, and another 0.1" last January. You need to move down south to Houston where we get 10 times the snow of D-FW. ;-)


haha...noticed I said "over 0.01 inch" but however you slice it, considering DFW averages around 2 inches of snowfall per year depending how far back you go, over the last 3 years DFW is at 1.67% of Normal Snowfall!!!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2985 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:54 pm

orangeblood wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Yep, I believe DFW is currently under the longest snowless streak in recorded history....1412 days and counting, last measurable snow (over 0.01 inch) was in March 2015

To say we're getting antsy around here is an understatement!!!


That didn't sound right to me. I checked DFW's reports and they reported 0.1" of snow on January 6th, 2017. That's only 738 days. Of course, Houston reported 0.7" of snow in December of 2017, and another 0.1" last January. You need to move down south to Houston where we get 10 times the snow of D-FW. ;-)


haha...noticed I said "over 0.01 inch" but however you slice it, considering DFW averages around 2 inches of snowfall per year depending how far back you go, over the last 3 years DFW is at 1.67% of Normal Snowfall!!!!!


Hey now, there’s a difference between 0.01” and 0.1”.. we’re talking nine tenths :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2986 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:02 pm

"New GFS" (FV3) has only upper 20s in D-FW area on Sunday with a light freeze in the D-FW area Monday (32F). Pretty similar to the "old GFS", I suppose.

Euro is colder for DFW Sun/Mon. No precip in the cold air, though:
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2987 Postby Cerlin » Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:11 pm

wxman57 wrote:"New GFS" (FV3) has only upper 20s in D-FW area on Sunday with a light freeze in the D-FW area Monday (32F). Pretty similar to the "old GFS", I suppose.

Euro is colder for DFW Sun/Mon. No precip in the cold air, though:
http://wxman57.com/images/DFW-Euro.png

Hoping it trends towards precipitation
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2988 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:15 pm

orangeblood wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Yep, I believe DFW is currently under the longest snowless streak in recorded history....1412 days and counting, last measurable snow (over 0.01 inch) was in March 2015

To say we're getting antsy around here is an understatement!!!


That didn't sound right to me. I checked DFW's reports and they reported 0.1" of snow on January 6th, 2017. That's only 738 days. Of course, Houston reported 0.7" of snow in December of 2017, and another 0.1" last January. You need to move down south to Houston where we get 10 times the snow of D-FW. ;-)


haha...noticed I said "over 0.01 inch" but however you slice it, considering DFW averages around 2 inches of snowfall per year depending how far back you go, over the last 3 years DFW is at 1.67% of Normal Snowfall!!!!!


Sooner or later DFW snowfall totals will regress to the mean! :P
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2989 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:19 pm

Rgv20 wrote:Sooner or later DFW snowfall totals will regress to the mean! :P


A mini ice age is coming: https://www.sciencealert.com/a-mini-ice-age-is-coming-in-the-next-15-years
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2990 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:39 pm

Rgv20 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
That didn't sound right to me. I checked DFW's reports and they reported 0.1" of snow on January 6th, 2017. That's only 738 days. Of course, Houston reported 0.7" of snow in December of 2017, and another 0.1" last January. You need to move down south to Houston where we get 10 times the snow of D-FW. ;-)


haha...noticed I said "over 0.01 inch" but however you slice it, considering DFW averages around 2 inches of snowfall per year depending how far back you go, over the last 3 years DFW is at 1.67% of Normal Snowfall!!!!!


Sooner or later DFW snowfall totals will regress to the mean! :P


It needs to be soon lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2991 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:40 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
That didn't sound right to me. I checked DFW's reports and they reported 0.1" of snow on January 6th, 2017. That's only 738 days. Of course, Houston reported 0.7" of snow in December of 2017, and another 0.1" last January. You need to move down south to Houston where we get 10 times the snow of D-FW. ;-)


haha...noticed I said "over 0.01 inch" but however you slice it, considering DFW averages around 2 inches of snowfall per year depending how far back you go, over the last 3 years DFW is at 1.67% of Normal Snowfall!!!!!


Hey now, there’s a difference between 0.01” and 0.1”.. we’re talking nine tenths :lol:


haha, good catch, that was a typo but at this point .01" or .1" ...we'd take anything
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2992 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:26 pm

wxman57 wrote:"New GFS" (FV3) has only upper 20s in D-FW area on Sunday with a light freeze in the D-FW area Monday (32F). Pretty similar to the "old GFS", I suppose.

Euro is colder for DFW Sun/Mon. No precip in the cold air, though:
http://wxman57.com/images/DFW-Euro.png


It is automatic to subtract 5-10F from the GFS -OP during cold snaps the past 2 years so Euro is a given! FV3 uncertain for.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2993 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:28 pm

12z GFS kept houston in the 30's all day Sunday and Monday
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2994 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:29 pm

1055mb HP for next Tuesday on the 18z GFS.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2995 Postby TheProfessor » Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:37 pm

Quite the storm for Texas on the 18z GFS :eek:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2996 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:40 pm

18zGFS going all out! :eek: :cold:

Image
Last edited by Rgv20 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2997 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:40 pm

I'm going to ask the 18z GFS to marry me ...

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2998 Postby Haris » Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:41 pm

Image
[url=
Come ON !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2999 Postby TheProfessor » Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:41 pm

Portastorm wrote:I'm going to ask the 18z GFS to marry me ...

http://i66.tinypic.com/1g4zsk.jpg


That's the stuff of profile pics.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3000 Postby Texas Snow » Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:45 pm

Portastorm wrote:I'm going to ask the 18z GFS to marry me ...

http://i66.tinypic.com/1g4zsk.jpg


Of course :roll: that puts DFW on the potential for no snow. Taking it for what it is this far out, I'm on the barely get any line. Glad we cant trust this far out :lol:
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