Texas Winter 2018-2019

Winter Weather Discussion

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spencer817
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3661 Postby spencer817 » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:34 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Captmorg70 wrote:Anyone seen the 00z 3k Nam? Can’t figure out how to post pictures tonight... but it’s really strange. It almost looks like a thin squall line/thunderstorm line that is snow instead of rain in NTX


It is essentially a band of fairly moderate QPF. Won't last long maybe an hour's worth that quickly moves through between 4-6AM depending on location. It shows the upper column sufficiently cold for a changeover especially north of I-20 despite ground temperatures above freezing. Wise, Denton, Collin counties northward likely sees more, perhaps a dusting on the run (this is not going to be 10:1).

Now if you're looking for a surprise that maybe last a little longer we would hope for the ULL to be stronger and able to create more lift than any model currently indicates.


Is the ULL stronger on the RAP and that's why there are intense rates a bit further south?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3662 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:37 pm

Ntxw wrote:When a glancing blow equates to more than a direct blow needs censorship :lol:

https://images2.imgbox.com/c6/78/vdyaqMj4_o.png


This map hurts me.
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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3663 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:10 pm

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3664 Postby HockeyTx82 » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:17 pm



Our Arctic front is finally here!!!!!! :cold: :cold: :cold: :spam: :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3665 Postby Captmorg70 » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:23 pm

missygirl810 wrote:
Captmorg70 wrote:Anyone seen the 00z 3k Nam? Can’t figure out how to post pictures tonight... but it’s really strange. It almost looks like a thin squall line/thunderstorm line that is snow instead of rain in NTX


For this newbie, does 00Z mean midnight? Sorry to ask lol


Hey sorry for the wait. The 00z is when the model started running (most have 00z 06z 12z 18z, some run twice a day at 00z and 12z). It uses UTC time (6 hrs ahead of us). So the 00z models runs at 6pm Texas time. Hope that helps. Btw the Nam shows the chance for snow in the 4am to 6am range
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3666 Postby spencer817 » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:25 pm

Image

02z HRRR with a nice band
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3667 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:28 pm

We might actually get some rain out of the first round with this system, maybe a sign that it is coming in a bit stronger than modeled?

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3668 Postby Captmorg70 » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:31 pm

bubba hotep wrote:We might actually get some rain out of the first round with this system, maybe a sign that it is coming in a bit stronger than modeled?

https://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/animations/codnexlab.NEXRAD.FWS.N0Q.20190119.327.024ani.gif


Heard it raining just a bit earlier and was kinda surprised. Maybe a good sign

Also it’s nice to see Nam and hrrr look to be similar in overnight snow chances
Last edited by Captmorg70 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3669 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:32 pm

Raining. Didn’t think it was supposed to tonight? Loving the HRRR for me.
Last edited by rwfromkansas on Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3670 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:34 pm

Debating whether its worth it to be awake for the alleged snow i mean might be our only shot lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3671 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:35 pm

No way I am making it through the night. Alarm set for 3:45. Hope to see everyone in the morning for an hours worth of heavy wet snow.
Raining here now.
Last edited by gpsnowman on Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3672 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:38 pm

Brent wrote:Debating whether its worth it to be awake for the alleged snow i mean might be our only shot lol


I've seen the window as being 2am - 9 am, fudge that! I guess I'll get up around 2 and see what the status is.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3673 Postby spencer817 » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:40 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Brent wrote:Debating whether its worth it to be awake for the alleged snow i mean might be our only shot lol


I've seen the window as being 2am - 9 am, fudge that! I guess I'll get up around 2 and see what the status is.


I feel like the temp trend from when the front comes through will be a good checkpoint, right?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3674 Postby Cerlin » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:41 pm

It’s snowing in Amarillo right now based on the reports I’m seeing. Was it supposed to be this early?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3675 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:41 pm

Looks like the front has just passed through Wichita Falls according to the PWS's on Wundermap. Is that ahead or behind schedule?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3676 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:45 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Brent wrote:Debating whether its worth it to be awake for the alleged snow i mean might be our only shot lol


I've seen the window as being 2am - 9 am, fudge that! I guess I'll get up around 2 and see what the status is.


I'm usually still up anyway so we'll see :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3677 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:48 pm

Looks to be basically on schedule from their timing graphic at NWS.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3678 Postby Haris » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:06 pm

the gfs has even a more strong trough!

But the cold is really lacking!! This is the PERFECT set - up. I swear, missing this and getting rain instead will piss me off......... This really is a good set up. Ugh... Come on cold (!!!!)
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3679 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:10 pm

Nice little thunderstorm here IMBY right now.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3680 Postby EnnisTx » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:14 pm

Haris wrote:the gfs has even a more strong trough!

But the cold is really lacking!! This is the PERFECT set - up. I swear, missing this and getting rain instead will piss me off......... This really is a good set up. Ugh... Come on cold (!!!!)


I don't think it was ever supposed to snow down your way? Was it?
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