Texas Winter 2018-2019

Winter Weather Discussion

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Cpv17
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4041 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 1:24 pm

The FV3 is ugly in the LR..no bueno. Thankfully it’s the LR.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4042 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Jan 21, 2019 1:46 pm

12z Euro dropping the hammer with plenty of energy hanging back in the SW.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4043 Postby Haris » Mon Jan 21, 2019 1:47 pm

euro has heavy rain this weekend. Ill take anything at this point !
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4044 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 21, 2019 1:49 pm

bubba hotep wrote:12z Euro dropping the hammer with plenty of energy hanging back in the SW.


Not enough digging, WC ridge position too far east...going towards GFS OP (NO BUENO). Moisture return is becoming extremely problematic looking at Upper Level Pattern
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4045 Postby Haris » Mon Jan 21, 2019 1:52 pm

euro has a hurricane off of Florida LMAO
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4046 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 21, 2019 1:52 pm

Models keep showing everything east what gives :grr:

Other than maybe another predawn flizzard Wednesday
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4047 Postby Haris » Mon Jan 21, 2019 1:54 pm

It's always been the case. The E has no issue with moisture at any time of the year. It's texas points W.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4048 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:00 pm

How would this setup not produce anything? Please enlighten me.

Image

Image

I mean, how would it look any better than that?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4049 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:03 pm

Brent wrote:Models keep showing everything east what gives :grr:

Other than maybe another predawn flizzard Wednesday


Starting to feel like we're in the movie "Groundhog Day", models showing the same song and dance over and over and over and over and over again!!! :double: :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4050 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:11 pm

Cpv17 wrote:How would this setup not produce anything? Please enlighten me.

I mean, how would it look any better than that?


Trough is too far east and positively titled, need mean axis out towards NM/AZ not Texas and neutral/negative tilted!....there is no mechanism for moisture return and/or lift. The only thing I see if this UL Pattern were to verify is getting light QPF squeezed under N/W flow!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4051 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:15 pm

You folks up in the D-FW area may need to head south to Pensacola, FL to see some snow next week. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4052 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:16 pm

The Euro is so cold, it has snow out over the Gulf :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4053 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:18 pm

Still time for a shift west but DA**, I feel like we've been saying that for 3 straight years now!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4054 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:20 pm

orangeblood wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:12z Euro dropping the hammer with plenty of energy hanging back in the SW.


Not enough digging, WC ridge position too far east...going towards GFS OP (NO BUENO). Moisture return is becoming extremely problematic looking at Upper Level Pattern


Not too worried about anything beyond D5, too many moving parts for the operational models to resolve.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4055 Postby KimmieLa » Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:20 pm

Cpv17 wrote:How would this setup not produce anything? Please enlighten me.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019012112/ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019012112/ecmwf_T850a_scus_10.png

I mean, how would it look any better than that?


Temps are only part of the picture, got to look to the West to see what moisture (lows) are coming. This is a super basic explanation, but, we need moisture.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4056 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:33 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:12z Euro dropping the hammer with plenty of energy hanging back in the SW.


Not enough digging, WC ridge position too far east...going towards GFS OP (NO BUENO). Moisture return is becoming extremely problematic looking at Upper Level Pattern


Not too worried about anything beyond D5, too many moving parts for the operational models to resolve.


You need the cold first and it’s showing plenty of that. You’re absolutely right though. Plenty of time yet to resolve. I’m glad that it’s showing the Arctic hammer though. Models, to me, have an easier time figuring that out compared to where troughs will be, especially 7-10 days out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4057 Postby hriverajr » Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:44 pm

European is completely different from it's earlier run. Latest GFS is very different from European at 234... GFS does have the trough much further west in the long range.. and an arctic dump down the east side of the rockies. GEFS does indicate colder air building up in western canada. Looks chaotic. Of note.. still no high pressures in Canada. Highest I could find is 1019
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4058 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:46 pm

Euro EPS is much more favorable for winter wx across Texas in the 7-10D range than the 00z was, even though the 12z Op wasn't as good of a look.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4059 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:50 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Euro EPS is much more favorable for winter wx across Texas in the 7-10D range than the 00z was, even though the 12z Op wasn't as good of a look.


Yep, it looks like we may have several chances for frozen precip over the next few weeks. The cold air will likely be in place...we just need a disturbance and moisture to time up with it nicely.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4060 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:50 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Euro EPS is much more favorable for winter wx across Texas in the 7-10D range than the 00z was, even though the 12z Op wasn't as good of a look.


Bubba, you’re very knowledgeable about the weather! Please tell me how this produces precip over Texas

Image

But this doesn’t?

Image

Makes no sense to me :think:
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