Texas Winter 2018-2019

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orangeblood
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4081 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 21, 2019 5:13 pm

hamburgerman7070 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Haris wrote:The EPS are fairly snowy. The future is very foggy beyond Wednesday for sure. Could be another dud or an actual event. Too early to write anything off the table.


Unfortunately, at least to my eyes, they don't look as promising...mean trough axis has trended east, not west, and only showing Mean QPF at DFW of around 0.45 inch over next 15 days. That is on the dry side for DFW this time of year! Plus an even more disturbing trend on the Euro EPS is it's lifting the cold north after Day 11-12. As far as cold goes over next 10 days, it looks better, but not on the moisture side of the equation


Orangeblood, I hate to be a debbie downer, but i think winter is over other than a few cold shots. Trough is too far east and then it starts to moderate late in the period. Only way imo we can salvage winter is if we get a -nao, otherwise its coming to an abrupt end imo.


Yes, the longer we go without a true Greenland block like most thought would occur the more troubling Feb prospects look. Tele forecasts have been wildly inaccurate...forecasting negative indices in the long term only to pull back as we get closer. It’s getting quite comical at this point but the modeled teasing pattern isn’t something we should ignore

Hopefully the Euro weeklies continue to keep hope alive this evening
Last edited by orangeblood on Mon Jan 21, 2019 5:21 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4082 Postby missygirl810 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 5:16 pm

wxman57 wrote:You folks up in the D-FW area may need to head south to Pensacola, FL to see some snow next week. :lol:


Since it is your fault, you are paying for said trip!!!! :wink: :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4083 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jan 21, 2019 5:19 pm

dhweather wrote:
Portastorm wrote:I realize everyone is frustrated because it always seems like the "goods" get delivered in the models 10 days out. We'd all feel a lot better if the models were in agreement 72 hours out. But in reviewing this morning the ensembles for all three medium range models, you have to admit it's impressive to see such agreement in a pattern which would, theoretically, deliver the "goods" for us in the Southern Plains and Texas.

Let's hope it holds and verifies. This time. :wink:


The check is in the mail.
This won't hurt a bit.
There was no pass interference.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


Haaaa! I would expect nothing less from our resident skeptic. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4084 Postby hamburgerman7070 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 5:43 pm

I just find it interesting that we couldn't get a -nao this winter, despite a pv split. We can still get one, since its technically winter on the calendar. Usually when the ao is negative, the nao follows suit i thought. Im still curious if the mjo goes into the cod without a true signal.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4085 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 5:50 pm

missygirl810 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:You folks up in the D-FW area may need to head south to Pensacola, FL to see some snow next week. :lol:


Since it is your fault, you are paying for said trip!!!! :wink: :wink:


Sorry, that part of the government is currently shut down. No money available. If we DO get lows in the Gulf with cold weather inland, then the snow would be closer to the coast rather than up in NE TX. Snow in the D-FW area would have to come from a different mechanism, or a low much farther north (inland).
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4086 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 21, 2019 5:52 pm

hamburgerman7070 wrote:I just find it interesting that we couldn't get a -nao this winter, despite a pv split. We can still get one, since its technically winter on the calendar. Usually when the ao is negative, the nao follows suit i thought. Im still curious if the mjo goes into the cod without a true signal.


The NAO can be an area of great debate beyond its natural tendencies. Solar has some effects, so does decadal flips. On the other hand one has to wonder if the open waters of the Barents/Kara Seas in winter (frozen) in the past has effects? Ice reflects heat back up to the atmosphere while water can absorb it. A question to ask that few have a good answer to.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4087 Postby hriverajr » Mon Jan 21, 2019 6:02 pm

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
hamburgerman7070 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Unfortunately, at least to my eyes, they don't look as promising...mean trough axis has trended east, not west, and only showing Mean QPF at DFW of around 0.45 inch over next 15 days. That is on the dry side for DFW this time of year! Plus an even more disturbing trend on the Euro EPS is it's lifting the cold north after Day 11-12. As far as cold goes over next 10 days, it looks better, but not on the moisture side of the equation


Orangeblood, I hate to be a debbie downer, but i think winter is over other than a few cold shots. Trough is too far east and then it starts to moderate late in the period. Only way imo we can salvage winter is if we get a -nao, otherwise its coming to an abrupt end imo.


Early Spring??

I'm down for that. Give me 70's in Feb, 80's in March. Spring seemed late last year, we had really cold weekends up until May.


Uh no.. the later the heat can be pushed back to the better. I can retire in 5 years.. if I do and find another teaching gig, I want to move to the intermountain west.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4088 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Jan 21, 2019 6:04 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:95% of Euro members give me snow Wed morning. Max amount is around 3" and most down under an inch. Also some will likely be lost to sleet as the 850 0 degree line is trailing the surface freezing line. If that 850 0 degree line could advance a bit faster I'd be dumped on good. Hoping for no freezing rain.

GFS ensemble mean maxes at over 2" of snow Wed morning over Carthage with some members nearing 6" over southern E TX.

Other models finally picking up on this event.

Wed morning is going to surprise some folks in E TX.


What parts of E Tx?

Euro focuses on Palestine to Tyler to Texarkana. GFS focuses SE of there so places like College Station to Nac to Carthage would be hardest hit. Other models show less and more scattered but they are trending up. So basically all of E TX has a shot.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4089 Postby rwfromkansas » Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:19 pm

It's a roller coaster here. Things were trending good, now bad again. Lol. No wonder I am not really watching the models this year besides here. I just hope something happens. If not, severe weather season better be rocking.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4090 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:37 pm

I'm not saying winter is over but if we dont get a real snowstorm here it will go down as one of the worst most overhyped winters ever to me
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4091 Postby missygirl810 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:42 pm

wxman57 wrote:
missygirl810 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:You folks up in the D-FW area may need to head south to Pensacola, FL to see some snow next week. :lol:


Since it is your fault, you are paying for said trip!!!! :wink: :wink:


Sorry, that part of the government is currently shut down. No money available. If we DO get lows in the Gulf with cold weather inland, then the snow would be closer to the coast rather than up in NE TX. Snow in the D-FW area would have to come from a different mechanism, or a low much farther north (inland).



Just take some money from that wall, it will all work out in the end...I promise!!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4092 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:49 pm

In other news, the daily averages are on the upward trend. Boo hiss. We are slowly losing time and climo for our winter fun. Just want one snowstorm. One.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4093 Postby Cerlin » Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:54 pm

I really don’t want this to be a waste of a winter...hoping for a 2014-15 kind of thing.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4094 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 21, 2019 8:12 pm

gpsnowman wrote:In other news, the daily averages are on the upward trend. Boo hiss. We are slowly losing time and climo for our winter fun. Just want one snowstorm. One.


Yup spring getting closer by the day

6 more weeks and it'll be 4 years without more than a dusting in Dallas but theres always a chance i suppose of a 14-15 grand finale
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4095 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Jan 21, 2019 8:16 pm

Brent wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:In other news, the daily averages are on the upward trend. Boo hiss. We are slowly losing time and climo for our winter fun. Just want one snowstorm. One.


Yup spring getting closer by the day

6 more weeks and it'll be 4 years without more than a dusting in Dallas but theres always a chance i suppose of a 14-15 grand finale

An ending like that would make all the waiting worthwhile. A huge IF though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4096 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Jan 21, 2019 8:28 pm

The new Euro Weeklies are Lit!

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4097 Postby harp » Mon Jan 21, 2019 8:29 pm

bubba hotep wrote:The new Euro Weeklies are Lit!

https://media.giphy.com/media/11KgddPnJzcipW/giphy.gif

Explain please.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4098 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 21, 2019 8:38 pm

harp wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:The new Euro Weeklies are Lit!

https://media.giphy.com/media/11KgddPnJzcipW/giphy.gif

Explain please.


Have they ever not been lit in this tease of a winter lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4099 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 21, 2019 8:45 pm

Brent wrote:
harp wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:The new Euro Weeklies are Lit!

https://media.giphy.com/media/11KgddPnJzcipW/giphy.gif

Explain please.


Have they ever not been lit in this tease of a winter lol


No kidding, the weeklies feel like Ground Hog day as well...same 1.5 to 2.0 inch mean 46 day DFW snowfall forecast and they've been showing it twice a week since the 1st of December. They are actually warmer than last run with a pretty big warmup for the 1st half of February than a cool down for the 2nd half!
Last edited by orangeblood on Mon Jan 21, 2019 8:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4100 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 21, 2019 8:47 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Brent wrote:
harp wrote: Explain please.


Have they ever not been lit in this tease of a winter lol


No kidding, the weeklies feel like Ground Hog day as well...same 1.5 to 2.0 inch 46 day DFW snowfall forecast and they've been showing it twice a week since the 1st of December. They are actually warmer than last run with a pretty big warmup for the 1st half of February than a cool down for the 2nd half!


I'm so done with long range models nothing but a bunch of fake news lol
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