Texas Winter 2018-2019

[orangeblood]

There is no way we can put any credibility in any of these models, at this point, beyond day 3-4...just look at the asinine MJO forecast differences b/w the GFS and Euro past day 4 . Throw out most any forecast until they can come to better agreement!!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

I've noticed that here recently and the RMM plots have been struggling with the incoherent Pacific. Also, the GEFS is biased towards amplification as convection moves in WPAC. If you use a filtered MJO (removing ERW, KW, etc) is a slow moving low amp MJO look that probably spends all of February in 8/1/2. That points towards the MJO being in favorable phases for cold but also giving away some influence to the +ENSO background state.

That would be ideal, 8-1-2 is the Holy Grail of cold in Feb!!!

Also, safe to say Western Canada is about to tank this weekend....looking at 25-30 C below normal!

[spencer817]

I like the 12z FV3 2 ice storm threats for DFW

[Haris]

Hopefully the euro begins to trend wetter soon. I can hardly wait.

[orangeblood]

Hopefully the euro begins to trend wetter soon. I can hardly wait.

hahaha well lowered expectations are probably the prudent move at this point, plus much more enjoyable that way when something actually does occur

[wxman22]

Hopefully the euro begins to trend wetter soon. I can hardly wait.

12z Euro has light snow in SC and SE Texas next Friday fwiw lol
The 12z Euro actually looks similar to the 12z ICON model with the HP being drawn more south towards the Southern Plains before sliding to the east. The main difference is that the HP/cold air depicted by the Euro isn't as strong as what the ICON depicts, but the direction of the air is similar between the two.

[orangeblood]

Hopefully the euro begins to trend wetter soon. I can hardly wait.

12z Euro has light snow in SC and SE Texas next Friday fwiw lol
The 12z Euro actually looks similar to the 12z ICON model with the HP being drawn more south towards the Southern Plains before sliding to the east. The main difference is that the HP/cold air depicted by the Euro isn't as strong as what the ICON depicts, but the direction of the air is similar between the two.

Yeah, after looking over the latest Euro Ensemble members, there's enough WILD variation with the front location that no one has a clue about late next week....by Thursday afternoon, there are some members with the front location already through to gulf coast while others still have it locked up in Kansas. Really crazy discrepancies right now!

[Cpv17]

Why does the cold air just basically die out as it moves south? It’s barely even cold for Texas with that front.

[HockeyTx82]

Why does the cold air just basically die out as it moves south? It’s barely even cold for Texas with that front.

Someone with better understanding please chime in but I'll do my best. Models seem to not handle cold dense air very well. Cold dense air is like water. It stays close to the ground and follows the path of least resistance. It's heavy. That's why if a front pushes air east of the rocky mountains it damns it up and it just slides south. Many of time models bust when a dense air mass comes out of Canada. Not to say they are right or wrong but cold air kind of does what it wants given a chance. Modification depends of source temp and snow pack to our north.

[Ntxw]

2001-2002 was colder.

Give me 1994-95 for futility, Alex.

This is incorrect. December 2001 was 49.5F and January 2002 was 47.6F. Both warmer than the past two months respectively. February 2002 was 47F which isn't that cold just about the same as that January was. Also at 500mb 1994-1995 over the EPO region was much more akin to 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 with deep GOA low.

Perhaps I should clarify: at this point the average temps could be called similar. However, 01-02 had 46 freezes at the airport, had multiple readings in the teens, and a season low of 14. I realize we haven’t hit February (or March) but we’d need to put the hammer down as we only have 19 freezes and a low of 25 for this winter. Which brings me to 94-95, a year that had 25 freezes and a low of 23 for the winter. And despite the details: the pacific is the reason both 94-95 and this winter are similar.

I requested NCDC data and November-January had 25 freezes back in 01-02 to date. 19 so far is 6 less, which is behind but not something extremely drastic. You are right there was a singular blast the first few days of Jan 2002 and it dipped to 14. The past week had the cold been directed a little better with more southerly component we may have ended up with a different outcome, both years had a big pool of cold in January. Of course I won't count this since it didn't happen this year, but the message is 2001-2002 the first three quarters of the winter wasn't vastly different. February and March of that year is what saved the winter. We don't know yet what this year will do the rest of the way. 1994-1995 are not the same in the Pacific. As I mentioned there was a deep low pressure area in the GOA like 1997-98, 2015-2016 which is not there this year so they are not the same kind of ENSO events. Those are surefire blowtorches when the Aleutian low extends to the coast of Canada! The Atlantic/Greenland was also atrocious in 1994-95 where low heights is among the strongest on record ++NAO and ++AO. We may very well flunk Feb/March, but if we do it will be because of other reasons and not what happened in 1994-1995.



P.S. I am so glad the NOAA sites are back and running normal! For us weather geeks this stuff is life or death . We love to praise the Euro, but there are great services NCEP and NOAA provides, free of charge, that goes under appreciated until it is gone.

[Ntxw]

Why does the cold air just basically die out as it moves south? It’s barely even cold for Texas with that front.

SW flow aloft with high heights across the southern tier. Some phasing of the northern and subtropical jet can alleviate. Of course that may not be what happens in reality but in general when there is SW flow a loft models generally prefer to erode the cold air. When the -PNA is too much you can have that problem.

The spread is high right now so we aren't sure where the pieces will be moving given the range. It could ice/snow anywhere from the Dakotas to the Rio Grande. We've seen all solutions the past few days.

[wxman57]

Why does the cold air just basically die out as it moves south? It’s barely even cold for Texas with that front.

SW flow aloft with high heights across the southern tier. Some phasing of the northern and subtropical jet can alleviate. Of course that may not be what happens in reality but in general when there is SW flow a loft models generally prefer to erode the cold air. When the -PNA is too much you can have that problem.

The spread is high right now so we aren't sure where the pieces will be moving given the range. It could ice/snow anywhere from the Dakotas to the Rio Grande. We've seen all solutions the past few days.

Southwest flow aloft won't stop shallow Arctic air, though. I have a set of model print-outs from the 1993 Thanksgiving ice storm (no digital back then). Famous Leon Lett game in Dallas. There was a bit upper low over southern Utah and northern Arizona. Strong SW flow aloft over Texas (ridge overhead). Arctic air moved straight south through Texas to the Gulf. It didn't even "notice" the opposing upper flow. Of course the American model back then brought the front down to the Red River then backed it up to Kansas with the SW upper flow. However, it was in the Gulf at that time, not Kansas. Models can't handle shallow Arctic air.

This situation is different, however. First of all, there has to be cold air in western Canada. Looks like the air is starting to cool down there, but the cold air that moves south this week may be a bit too shallow to make it all the way to Texas without being highly-modified.

Keep an eye on the source region in Alberta and Saskatchewan (and northward). How much of that cold air breaks free will determine what we get down here.

Oh, and one more thing, I've had time to build my wall higher from the Washington/British Columbia border east through northern Minnesota.

[dhweather]

PLEASE READ

I am sharing this note with y’all with my Moderator hat on. Everyone here should know that this forum is only as good as the posts of its members. What makes it such a good forum IMO is that we have some professional meteorologists, educated enthusiasts, and general weather fans. It’s a nice mix and we try to keep the tone friendly and light. Sometimes things get out of hand. You will see this happen during hurricanes over in the tropical forum as tensions and emotions rise, people fire off posts without thinking, and the result is a less friendly and less helpful forum.

Another annoyance is complaining or whining. Think about this for a second, do any of us really like being around someone at our work or with friends and hear someone constantly complain and mean lady and moan? I don’t think so. It just brings you down, becomes annoying after a while, and the natural reaction is to get away from it. Well, I have received numerous complaints now from folks here about the complaining and whining getting out of hand. It has become so bad that some folks are choosing to not even check in or participate much. And, to me, that is a problem.

So like I said, this forum is only as good as its members’ posts. So every single one of you has an impact, whether you like it or not, with every post you make. Together, all of our comments and posts woven together create the fabric of the forum. Those of you who are frustrated by no winter weather … we get it. Hell, I get it better than anyone! And I will be frank in telling you that some few years back I had some members privately send me notes calling me out for my “Austin always gets screwed” posts. It got tiresome to them, so I am thankful that some of you did call me out and I try to be mindful of that when I feel like writing the “dammit, so-and-so got snow and I got the shaft” posts.

For the sake of the quality of this forum, I’m going to ask you all to be mindful of the same thing. It’s no different than if we all were in a bar or restaurant and having a conversation in person. We don’t want to control people or posts (providing they follow our rules), but we do want everyone to be aware that every post you make contributes to the quality of the forum. And if you don’t want to chase people off, then stop with the complaining, the emotional reactions to every single model run, the getting mad at wxman57 because what he is writing doesn’t jive with your hopes, etc.

I hope you all take this in the spirit in which it is meant … and that is one of good will. I want to see all of us be better and raise the level of our forum. Thank you.

Yeah, right, lets see what your 0Z post says.

I think everyone here would give a standing ovation for the job you, wxman57, ntxw and others do in moderating the forum. It's a thankless job that can be rather tricky. So let me be the first to say THANK YOU!!!!!

[orangeblood]

Why does the cold air just basically die out as it moves south? It’s barely even cold for Texas with that front.

SW flow aloft with high heights across the southern tier. Some phasing of the northern and subtropical jet can alleviate. Of course that may not be what happens in reality but in general when there is SW flow a loft models generally prefer to erode the cold air. When the -PNA is too much you can have that problem.

The spread is high right now so we aren't sure where the pieces will be moving given the range. It could ice/snow anywhere from the Dakotas to the Rio Grande. We've seen all solutions the past few days.

Southwest flow aloft won't stop shallow Arctic air, though. I have a set of model print-outs from the 1993 Thanksgiving ice storm (no digital back then). Famous Leon Lett game in Dallas. There was a bit upper low over southern Utah and northern Arizona. Strong SW flow aloft over Texas (ridge overhead). Arctic air moved straight south through Texas to the Gulf. It didn't even "notice" the opposing upper flow. Of course the American model back then brought the front down to the Red River then backed it up to Kansas with the SW upper flow. However, it was in the Gulf at that time, not Kansas. Models can't handle shallow Arctic air.

This situation is different, however. First of all, there has to be cold air in western Canada. Looks like the air is starting to cool down there, but the cold air that moves south this week may be a bit too shallow to make it all the way to Texas without being highly-modified.

Keep an eye on the source region in Alberta and Saskatchewan (and northward). How much of that cold air breaks free will determine what we get down here.

Oh, and one more thing, I've had time to build my wall higher from the Washington/British Columbia border east through northern Minnesota.

??? Regarding the cold air, I’m not sure if you’re just trolling us or you seriously don’t see the cold air ? See my post above, you have all models forecasting 25-30 C below normal in western Canada in less than 48 hrs, that is brutally cold this time of year by any measure. The cold air will be there, it’s just a matter of where it’s going...I like the overall model trends today - a high impact event seems likely next week anywhere from Nebraska to Austin haha!

[JDawg512]

I miss posting like I used to, it has nothing to do with the overall tone but more to do with my weekly schedule. I do follow up frequently, just don't log in often.

Overall this winter has turned out about what I expected, will see how Feburary pans out. Looking forward to more rain!

[TheProfessor]

Just so you guys know miracles do happen. We were forecasted to get 2-4 inches of snow last night and my county saw widespread 4-6 inches. I wouldn't be surprised if there were some 7 inch spots. Ratios were absurd last night and it ended up giving me perhaps my biggest storm I've seen here (I've had 3 or 4 give me around 5.5-6.5" the last couple of years) . Unfortunately it's all going to melt the next couple of days, but this storm will definitely be a stat buffer whether it be us being near or above average for the season.

[Ntxw]

The Pacific tropical connection has lit up. Little doubt now the El Nino has exerted pressure into the equation. We may see this event grow into Spring (atypical) unless it's a multi-year event. California sees it first, winter storm watches, flood watches, wind warnings, all kinds of goodies out there.

[spencer817]

I hope that people realize that the reason there are little members showing snow is because many of them, at least the GEFS, are showing sleet/ice.



This is just one hour/frame with 1/4 to 1/2 of the 20 members showing ice headed for DFW. Don't be dissuaded by one op run.

[Haris]

Wow; Textbook NIno

[spencer817]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/7NzfkBm/Screenshot-at-Feb-01-18-50-58.png [/url]
Wow; Textbook NIno

The best pattern supportive of wintry weather we've seen in awhile!

[EnnisTx]

PLEASE READ

I am sharing this note with y’all with my Moderator hat on. Everyone here should know that this forum is only as good as the posts of its members. What makes it such a good forum IMO is that we have some professional meteorologists, educated enthusiasts, and general weather fans. It’s a nice mix and we try to keep the tone friendly and light. Sometimes things get out of hand. You will see this happen during hurricanes over in the tropical forum as tensions and emotions rise, people fire off posts without thinking, and the result is a less friendly and less helpful forum.

Another annoyance is complaining or whining. Think about this for a second, do any of us really like being around someone at our work or with friends and hear someone constantly complain and mean lady and moan? I don’t think so. It just brings you down, becomes annoying after a while, and the natural reaction is to get away from it. Well, I have received numerous complaints now from folks here about the complaining and whining getting out of hand. It has become so bad that some folks are choosing to not even check in or participate much. And, to me, that is a problem.

So like I said, this forum is only as good as its members’ posts. So every single one of you has an impact, whether you like it or not, with every post you make. Together, all of our comments and posts woven together create the fabric of the forum. Those of you who are frustrated by no winter weather … we get it. Hell, I get it better than anyone! And I will be frank in telling you that some few years back I had some members privately send me notes calling me out for my “Austin always gets screwed” posts. It got tiresome to them, so I am thankful that some of you did call me out and I try to be mindful of that when I feel like writing the “dammit, so-and-so got snow and I got the shaft” posts.

For the sake of the quality of this forum, I’m going to ask you all to be mindful of the same thing. It’s no different than if we all were in a bar or restaurant and having a conversation in person. We don’t want to control people or posts (providing they follow our rules), but we do want everyone to be aware that every post you make contributes to the quality of the forum. And if you don’t want to chase people off, then stop with the complaining, the emotional reactions to every single model run, the getting mad at wxman57 because what he is writing doesn’t jive with your hopes, etc.

I hope you all take this in the spirit in which it is meant … and that is one of good will. I want to see all of us be better and raise the level of our forum. Thank you.

Yeah, right, lets see what your 0Z post says.

I think everyone here would give a standing ovation for the job you, wxman57, ntxw and others do in moderating the forum. It's a thankless job that can be rather tricky. So let me be the first to say THANK YOU!!!!!

So..... what you're trying to say is that people are complaining about people complaining.
I agree!