Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Brent]

lol the Euro doesn't even rain!! til its east of Dallas

this winter... can't really blame people for feeling defeated

[Cpv17]

lol the Euro doesn't even rain!! til its east of Dallas

this winter... can't really blame people for feeling defeated

Areas east of Texas are constantly winning imo. At least they get rain on a fairly consistent basis. This winter just isn’t our turn. Eventually we’ll have a favorable winter (I hope). We seem to be stuck in a boring weather pattern right now. Tons of exciting stuff to our west and our east and we’re stuck in the middle of no mans land.

[Brent]

lol the Euro doesn't even rain!! til its east of Dallas

this winter... can't really blame people for feeling defeated

Areas east of Texas are constantly winning imo. At least they get rain on a fairly consistent basis. This winter just isn’t our turn. Eventually we’ll have a favorable winter (I hope). We seem to be stuck in a boring weather pattern right now. Tons of exciting stuff to our west and our east and we’re stuck in the middle of no mans land.

it hasn't been our turn in so long up here When does it end???

[wxman57]

lol the Euro doesn't even rain!! til its east of Dallas

this winter... can't really blame people for feeling defeated

Areas east of Texas are constantly winning imo. At least they get rain on a fairly consistent basis. This winter just isn’t our turn. Eventually we’ll have a favorable winter (I hope). We seem to be stuck in a boring weather pattern right now. Tons of exciting stuff to our west and our east and we’re stuck in the middle of no mans land.

it hasn't been our turn in so long up here When does it end???

Here it comes, Brent!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019021300/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png

[hriverajr]

Now that is a troll post ... Grrr it's interesting that the models have played the same game all winter.

[Ntxw]

Daily SOI -25.22, continues to tank. February especially the second half will average the month -5 to -8.

[Ntxw]

Daily SOI -25.22, continues to tank. February especially the second half will average the month -5 to -8.

Probably should have followed this up with a bit more explanation but there usually is some lag time (up to 2 weeks) for a high qpf event in the southern plains when we see SOI tanking.

[orangeblood]

Daily SOI -25.22, continues to tank. February especially the second half will average the month -5 to -8.

Probably should have followed this up with a bit more explanation but there usually is some lag time (up to 2 weeks) for a high qpf event in the southern plains when we see SOI tanking.

Usually is the keyword here...there is nothing usual about any of our current weather when comparing historical indices/analogs!!!

[bubba hotep]

Yea, pretty crazy pattern that we are stuck in, they will probably see record snowfall totals. The SE ridge is holding strong and we will probably stay in the limbo land but I think we will see things turn in our favor around the 20th +/-

Bubba, when do you think the models may pick up on the mjo movement? This is new territory that we haven't seen in a long time. More of a typical niño with coupling between ocean and atmosphere it looks like

It's hard to say, we tend to oversimplify the MJO and I am certainly guilty of that on this board. MJO influences vary by ENSO phase, PNA structure, HBL, etc. The current pattern that we are in looks to be pretty stable with a raging STJ and stubborn SE ridge. Both the GEFS and Euro EPS retract the Pacific jet over the next few days and then start to extend it but the extension is uncertain and both the MJO and EAMT will play a role in that. The EPS is slower to change the pattern over N. America beyond D10 and the cold just kind of bleeds east while the GEFS is more aggressive.

One of the issues with the models & the MJO recently has been the strong RW interactions.

https://i.ibb.co/6ZhYnnH/u-anom-90-5-S-5-N.gif

The MJO (black line) was slowed in early Feb as it interacted with a strong RW (green line) that happened while we were in -PNA, which can be cold NW & warm SE during MJO P6 (while a +PNA P6 MJO would be warmer NW). The MJO will also be interacting with the low frequency background state in the coming days and will enhance convection. All that said, I think we will see some better chances for winter wx across TX around the 20th +/- as we see the Pacific jet extend.

The Pacific jet retraction was completed a couple of days ago and that was our chance to see the pattern reset before heading into the final act of Texas winter. The models were showing a healthy extension with an equatorward shift and this would have allowed for a much better Pacific look to develop. Instead, the models are now showing the Pacific jet pulling up short, retracting and shifting poleward. This allows for the stagnant pattern across much of N. America to flex back with the stubborn -PNA & SE ridge combo. We are running out of time but we probably have one more chance before mid-March but we need the Pacific to play nice and it just hasn't this winter.

[wxman57]

As I sit in my corner cubicle in our operations center, I can hear Arctic Thunder telling South Texas Storms (who sits just across from us) that he's going "a lot warmer" with his forecasts". Arctic Thunder says he "threw in the towel" as far as Texas winter weather weeks ago. Meanwhile, South Texas Storms is talking about blowing up my wall for NEXT winter. it seems he has conceded, too. His bet that Houston's Bush Airport will reach 25F by February 15th was a bad gamble. I'll be reinforcing my wall during the summer months.

In other news, the 6Z FV3-GFS says "never mind", as far as that D-FW snow storm around the 27th-28th.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019021306&fh=336

[Portastorm]

Areas east of Texas are constantly winning imo. At least they get rain on a fairly consistent basis. This winter just isn’t our turn. Eventually we’ll have a favorable winter (I hope). We seem to be stuck in a boring weather pattern right now. Tons of exciting stuff to our west and our east and we’re stuck in the middle of no mans land.

it hasn't been our turn in so long up here When does it end???

Here it comes, Brent!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019021300/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png

Two minutes for unsportsmanlike conduct, a 10-minute misconduct, and a game misconduct for wxman57.

[Ntxw]

Daily SOI -25.22, continues to tank. February especially the second half will average the month -5 to -8.

Probably should have followed this up with a bit more explanation but there usually is some lag time (up to 2 weeks) for a high qpf event in the southern plains when we see SOI tanking.

Usually is the keyword here...there is nothing usual about any of our current weather when comparing historical indices/analogs!!!

Definitely in a changing climatology.

SOI is a pretty reliable broader wet/dry period signal. Currently we are still feeling the lag effects of a +SOI late Jan/eary Feb. 30 day SOI hasn't caught up yet but it will when we go deeper into - territory. The flip on rain should switch.

[wxman57]

Two minutes for unsportsmanlike conduct, a 10-minute misconduct, and a game misconduct for wxman57.

Same ref who blew that pass interference call in the Saints' game has overturned your ruling.

[Portastorm]

Two minutes for unsportsmanlike conduct, a 10-minute misconduct, and a game misconduct for wxman57.

Same ref who blew that pass interference call in the Saints' game has overturned your ruling.

Okay, I gotta admit .. great response.

[bubba hotep]

Daily SOI -25.22, continues to tank. February especially the second half will average the month -5 to -8.

Obviously, climo trends wetter into MAM but maybe this SOI drop will be early enough to line up with some cold air. The one thing about this pattern is that it is keeping our source region cold! If we get a Pacific jet extension that is significant enough to alter the Pacific wave train and downstream breaking then we would have cold air in place to dump on the -SOI delivered moisture. At this point, we need to be all in on a '15 like event to save the winter.

[Texas Snowman]

Two minutes for unsportsmanlike conduct, a 10-minute misconduct, and a game misconduct for wxman57.

Same ref who blew that pass interference call in the Saints' game has overturned your ruling.

Okay, I gotta admit .. great response.

May not be enough to save him. I hear the rumor around the League office is that he’ll be suspended next winter due to conduct detrimental to the game.

[orangeblood]

1040 plus HP crossing the Canadian Border early next week...that is plenty strong enough and taking the right trajectory to make a decent push into the southern plains

[SoupBone]

I think the Fat Lady is warming up (no pun intended) on SE Tx winter weather hopes.

Can we at least get a couple of below freezing nights to kill off the adult mosquitoes? They are swarming already!

[Lagreeneyes03]

As I sit in my corner cubicle in our operations center, I can hear Arctic Thunder telling South Texas Storms (who sits just across from us) that he's going "a lot warmer" with his forecasts". Arctic Thunder says he "threw in the towel" as far as Texas winter weather weeks ago. Meanwhile, South Texas Storms is talking about blowing up my wall for NEXT winter. it seems he has conceded, too. His bet that Houston's Bush Airport will reach 25F by February 15th was a bad gamble. I'll be reinforcing my wall during the summer months.

In other news, the 6Z FV3-GFS says "never mind", as far as that D-FW snow storm around the 27th-28th.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019021306&fh=336

When do we get these warm temps? Next week in DFW is looking pretty rough. Too chilly for my liking. I've thrown in the towel on snow and as a heat lover, I'm looking forward to hopefully a warmer and stormier spring

[wxman57]

1040 plus HP crossing the Canadian Border early next week...that is plenty strong enough and taking the right trajectory to make a decent push into the southern plains

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019021312/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_21.png

My long-time (30 yrs) coworker, the cold-mongerer Arctic Thunder, says that a 5-day GFS forecast does not count. If and when the high center actually crosses the U.S. border, then we can expect cold. Meanwhile, I'm taking Friday off to bike in 80 degree temps.