Texas Winter 2018-2019
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38090
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
lol the Euro doesn't even rain!! til its east of Dallas
this winter... can't really blame people for feeling defeated
this winter... can't really blame people for feeling defeated
2 likes
#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Brent wrote:lol the Euro doesn't even rain!! til its east of Dallas
this winter... can't really blame people for feeling defeated
Areas east of Texas are constantly winning imo. At least they get rain on a fairly consistent basis. This winter just isn’t our turn. Eventually we’ll have a favorable winter (I hope). We seem to be stuck in a boring weather pattern right now. Tons of exciting stuff to our west and our east and we’re stuck in the middle of no mans land.
4 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38090
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Cpv17 wrote:Brent wrote:lol the Euro doesn't even rain!! til its east of Dallas
this winter... can't really blame people for feeling defeated
Areas east of Texas are constantly winning imo. At least they get rain on a fairly consistent basis. This winter just isn’t our turn. Eventually we’ll have a favorable winter (I hope). We seem to be stuck in a boring weather pattern right now. Tons of exciting stuff to our west and our east and we’re stuck in the middle of no mans land.
it hasn't been our turn in so long up here

1 likes
#neversummer
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22979
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Brent wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Brent wrote:lol the Euro doesn't even rain!! til its east of Dallas
this winter... can't really blame people for feeling defeated
Areas east of Texas are constantly winning imo. At least they get rain on a fairly consistent basis. This winter just isn’t our turn. Eventually we’ll have a favorable winter (I hope). We seem to be stuck in a boring weather pattern right now. Tons of exciting stuff to our west and our east and we’re stuck in the middle of no mans land.
it hasn't been our turn in so long up hereWhen does it end???
Here it comes, Brent!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019021300/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png
3 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Now that is a troll post ... Grrr it's interesting that the models have played the same game all winter.
0 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Daily SOI -25.22, continues to tank. February especially the second half will average the month -5 to -8.
4 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Ntxw wrote:Daily SOI -25.22, continues to tank. February especially the second half will average the month -5 to -8.
Probably should have followed this up with a bit more explanation

0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3714
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
- Location: Fort Worth, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Ntxw wrote:Ntxw wrote:Daily SOI -25.22, continues to tank. February especially the second half will average the month -5 to -8.
Probably should have followed this up with a bit more explanationbut there usually is some lag time (up to 2 weeks) for a high qpf event in the southern plains when we see SOI tanking.
Usually is the keyword here...there is nothing usual about any of our current weather when comparing historical indices/analogs!!!

3 likes
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5837
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
bubba hotep wrote:hamburgerman7070 wrote:bubba hotep wrote:
Yea, pretty crazy pattern that we are stuck in, they will probably see record snowfall totals. The SE ridge is holding strong and we will probably stay in the limbo land but I think we will see things turn in our favor around the 20th +/-
Bubba, when do you think the models may pick up on the mjo movement? This is new territory that we haven't seen in a long time. More of a typical niño with coupling between ocean and atmosphere it looks like
It's hard to say, we tend to oversimplify the MJO and I am certainly guilty of that on this board. MJO influences vary by ENSO phase, PNA structure, HBL, etc. The current pattern that we are in looks to be pretty stable with a raging STJ and stubborn SE ridge. Both the GEFS and Euro EPS retract the Pacific jet over the next few days and then start to extend it but the extension is uncertain and both the MJO and EAMT will play a role in that. The EPS is slower to change the pattern over N. America beyond D10 and the cold just kind of bleeds east while the GEFS is more aggressive.
One of the issues with the models & the MJO recently has been the strong RW interactions.
https://i.ibb.co/6ZhYnnH/u-anom-90-5-S-5-N.gif
The MJO (black line) was slowed in early Feb as it interacted with a strong RW (green line) that happened while we were in -PNA, which can be cold NW & warm SE during MJO P6 (while a +PNA P6 MJO would be warmer NW). The MJO will also be interacting with the low frequency background state in the coming days and will enhance convection. All that said, I think we will see some better chances for winter wx across TX around the 20th +/- as we see the Pacific jet extend.
The Pacific jet retraction was completed a couple of days ago and that was our chance to see the pattern reset before heading into the final act of Texas winter. The models were showing a healthy extension with an equatorward shift and this would have allowed for a much better Pacific look to develop. Instead, the models are now showing the Pacific jet pulling up short, retracting and shifting poleward. This allows for the stagnant pattern across much of N. America to flex back with the stubborn -PNA & SE ridge combo. We are running out of time but we probably have one more chance before mid-March but we need the Pacific to play nice and it just hasn't this winter.
2 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22979
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
As I sit in my corner cubicle in our operations center, I can hear Arctic Thunder telling South Texas Storms (who sits just across from us) that he's going "a lot warmer" with his forecasts". Arctic Thunder says he "threw in the towel" as far as Texas winter weather weeks ago. Meanwhile, South Texas Storms is talking about blowing up my wall for NEXT winter. it seems he has conceded, too. His bet that Houston's Bush Airport will reach 25F by February 15th was a bad gamble. I'll be reinforcing my wall during the summer months.
In other news, the 6Z FV3-GFS says "never mind", as far as that D-FW snow storm around the 27th-28th.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019021306&fh=336
In other news, the 6Z FV3-GFS says "never mind", as far as that D-FW snow storm around the 27th-28th.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019021306&fh=336
2 likes
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9914
- Age: 63
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
wxman57 wrote:Brent wrote:Cpv17 wrote:
Areas east of Texas are constantly winning imo. At least they get rain on a fairly consistent basis. This winter just isn’t our turn. Eventually we’ll have a favorable winter (I hope). We seem to be stuck in a boring weather pattern right now. Tons of exciting stuff to our west and our east and we’re stuck in the middle of no mans land.
it hasn't been our turn in so long up hereWhen does it end???
Here it comes, Brent!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019021300/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png
Two minutes for unsportsmanlike conduct, a 10-minute misconduct, and a game misconduct for wxman57.

2 likes
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
orangeblood wrote:Ntxw wrote:Ntxw wrote:Daily SOI -25.22, continues to tank. February especially the second half will average the month -5 to -8.
Probably should have followed this up with a bit more explanationbut there usually is some lag time (up to 2 weeks) for a high qpf event in the southern plains when we see SOI tanking.
Usually is the keyword here...there is nothing usual about any of our current weather when comparing historical indices/analogs!!!
Definitely in a changing climatology.
SOI is a pretty reliable broader wet/dry period signal. Currently we are still feeling the lag effects of a +SOI late Jan/eary Feb. 30 day SOI hasn't caught up yet but it will when we go deeper into - territory. The flip on rain should switch.
1 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22979
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Portastorm wrote:
Two minutes for unsportsmanlike conduct, a 10-minute misconduct, and a game misconduct for wxman57.
Same ref who blew that pass interference call in the Saints' game has overturned your ruling.
4 likes
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9914
- Age: 63
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
wxman57 wrote:Portastorm wrote:
Two minutes for unsportsmanlike conduct, a 10-minute misconduct, and a game misconduct for wxman57.
Same ref who blew that pass interference call in the Saints' game has overturned your ruling.



Okay, I gotta admit .. great response.
3 likes
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5837
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Ntxw wrote:Daily SOI -25.22, continues to tank. February especially the second half will average the month -5 to -8.
Obviously, climo trends wetter into MAM but maybe this SOI drop will be early enough to line up with some cold air. The one thing about this pattern is that it is keeping our source region cold! If we get a Pacific jet extension that is significant enough to alter the Pacific wave train and downstream breaking then we would have cold air in place to dump on the -SOI delivered moisture. At this point, we need to be all in on a '15 like event to save the winter.
0 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6179
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Portastorm wrote:wxman57 wrote:Portastorm wrote:
Two minutes for unsportsmanlike conduct, a 10-minute misconduct, and a game misconduct for wxman57.
Same ref who blew that pass interference call in the Saints' game has overturned your ruling.
![]()
![]()
![]()
Okay, I gotta admit .. great response.
May not be enough to save him. I hear the rumor around the League office is that he’ll be suspended next winter due to conduct detrimental to the game.

2 likes
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3714
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
- Location: Fort Worth, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
1040 plus HP crossing the Canadian Border early next week...that is plenty strong enough and taking the right trajectory to make a decent push into the southern plains


0 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:I think the Fat Lady is warming up (no pun intended) on SE Tx winter weather hopes.
Can we at least get a couple of below freezing nights to kill off the adult mosquitoes? They are swarming already!


1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 558
- Joined: Mon Dec 09, 2013 10:53 am
- Location: Luxurious Lake Grapevine
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
wxman57 wrote:As I sit in my corner cubicle in our operations center, I can hear Arctic Thunder telling South Texas Storms (who sits just across from us) that he's going "a lot warmer" with his forecasts". Arctic Thunder says he "threw in the towel" as far as Texas winter weather weeks ago. Meanwhile, South Texas Storms is talking about blowing up my wall for NEXT winter. it seems he has conceded, too. His bet that Houston's Bush Airport will reach 25F by February 15th was a bad gamble. I'll be reinforcing my wall during the summer months.
In other news, the 6Z FV3-GFS says "never mind", as far as that D-FW snow storm around the 27th-28th.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019021306&fh=336
When do we get these warm temps? Next week in DFW is looking pretty rough. Too chilly for my liking. I've thrown in the towel on snow and as a heat lover, I'm looking forward to hopefully a warmer and stormier spring
1 likes
I'm a Princess, not a forecaster.
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22979
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
orangeblood wrote:1040 plus HP crossing the Canadian Border early next week...that is plenty strong enough and taking the right trajectory to make a decent push into the southern plains
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019021312/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_21.png
My long-time (30 yrs) coworker, the cold-mongerer Arctic Thunder, says that a 5-day GFS forecast does not count. If and when the high center actually crosses the U.S. border, then we can expect cold. Meanwhile, I'm taking Friday off to bike in 80 degree temps.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests