Texas Spring 2019

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wxman57
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#161 Postby wxman57 » Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:03 am

12Z GFS is "running late" today, according to Ryan Maue.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#162 Postby dhweather » Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:09 am

Ntxw wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Wwlp, here comes the models drying up for Texas part lol


Timing isn't that great either for severe. Maybe a good passing band of rain early morning? More potent svr event in dixie more likely.



Agreed.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#163 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:20 am

wxman57 wrote:12Z GFS is "running late" today, according to Ryan Maue.



Is this an "uhh oh" moment or just it happens every once in a while?
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#164 Postby wxman57 » Wed Mar 06, 2019 12:02 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:12Z GFS is "running late" today, according to Ryan Maue.


Is this an "uhh oh" moment or just it happens every once in a while?


It's running now - out to 150 hrs. Programmers there had to input the correct heights of my two walls before running it.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#165 Postby BrokenGlass » Wed Mar 06, 2019 12:19 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:12Z GFS is "running late" today, according to Ryan Maue.


Is this an "uhh oh" moment or just it happens every once in a while?


It's running now - out to 150 hrs. Programmers there had to input the correct heights of my two walls before running it.

I am working on a plan and a team to build a wall to the east and west to keep the summer ridge of death from camping over Texas. Take that!


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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#166 Postby wxman57 » Wed Mar 06, 2019 12:36 pm

BrokenGlass wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:
Is this an "uhh oh" moment or just it happens every once in a while?


It's running now - out to 150 hrs. Programmers there had to input the correct heights of my two walls before running it.

I am working on a plan and a team to build a wall to the east and west to keep the summer ridge of death from camping over Texas. Take that!


Good luck with that. The ridge is an upper-level feature, as opposed to shallow (surface) cold air. A wall won't work. Besides, as long as the summer high temps reach 85F I'm happy.

Looking at the 12Z GFS, we may have quite a severe weather event across Texas next Tuesday afternoon/evening.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#167 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Mar 06, 2019 12:46 pm

Brent wrote:Huge blizzard in the east on the first day of spring on the 0z gfs

Can we get a west trend :P

Like a superstorm 1993 redux :double:

https://i.ibb.co/BGsVX5F/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-us-51-1.png


If you mean west by 30-50 miles than sure, but I want my big snow storm :grr: :lol: It would be pretty hilarious if we got a blizzard while Columbus is hosting the first round of March Madness(which I will be going to) lol.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#168 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Mar 06, 2019 3:12 pm

Looks real good for you guys in NTX.

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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#169 Postby Brent » Wed Mar 06, 2019 3:21 pm

Tuesday into Next Wednesday looks like a more significant event than Saturday

Of course, there's also more time for it to trend drier :lol:
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#170 Postby SoupBone » Wed Mar 06, 2019 3:29 pm

wxman57 wrote:
BrokenGlass wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
It's running now - out to 150 hrs. Programmers there had to input the correct heights of my two walls before running it.

I am working on a plan and a team to build a wall to the east and west to keep the summer ridge of death from camping over Texas. Take that!


Good luck with that. The ridge is an upper-level feature, as opposed to shallow (surface) cold air. A wall won't work. Besides, as long as the summer high temps reach 85F I'm happy.

Looking at the 12Z GFS, we may have quite a severe weather event across Texas next Tuesday afternoon/evening.



Just for you, I hope the death ridge places itself squarely over SE Texas, that way, no hurricanes, and you get your heat. :lol:
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#171 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Mar 06, 2019 4:30 pm

The latest model guidance is in pretty good agreement that we could see our first severe thunderstorm event of the year across much of the state next Tuesday/Wednesday. 12z Euro looks quite impressive, with a deep trough kicking out with a negative tilt across Texas.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#172 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Mar 06, 2019 5:30 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:The latest model guidance is in pretty good agreement that we could see our first severe thunderstorm event of the year across much of the state next Tuesday/Wednesday. 12z Euro looks quite impressive, with a deep trough kicking out with a negative tilt across Texas.


There looks to be a squall line. I’m more interested to see if there will be discrete supercells ahead of the line.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#173 Postby Brent » Wed Mar 06, 2019 5:46 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:The latest model guidance is in pretty good agreement that we could see our first severe thunderstorm event of the year across much of the state next Tuesday/Wednesday. 12z Euro looks quite impressive, with a deep trough kicking out with a negative tilt across Texas.


I'm so ready 8-) Kicking winter to the curb
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#174 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Mar 06, 2019 6:38 pm

Brent wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:The latest model guidance is in pretty good agreement that we could see our first severe thunderstorm event of the year across much of the state next Tuesday/Wednesday. 12z Euro looks quite impressive, with a deep trough kicking out with a negative tilt across Texas.


I'm so ready 8-) Kicking winter to the curb


18z GFS has snow in N. Texas lol
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#175 Postby Brent » Wed Mar 06, 2019 7:12 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Brent wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:The latest model guidance is in pretty good agreement that we could see our first severe thunderstorm event of the year across much of the state next Tuesday/Wednesday. 12z Euro looks quite impressive, with a deep trough kicking out with a negative tilt across Texas.


I'm so ready 8-) Kicking winter to the curb


18z GFS has snow in N. Texas lol


:roflmao:

Fake news
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#176 Postby aggiecutter » Wed Mar 06, 2019 7:19 pm

Brent wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:The latest model guidance is in pretty good agreement that we could see our first severe thunderstorm event of the year across much of the state next Tuesday/Wednesday. 12z Euro looks quite impressive, with a deep trough kicking out with a negative tilt across Texas.


I'm so ready 8-) Kicking winter to the curb


What winter???? I told you back in November that it would not snow in DFW this past winter.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#177 Postby Brent » Wed Mar 06, 2019 7:24 pm

aggiecutter wrote:
Brent wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:The latest model guidance is in pretty good agreement that we could see our first severe thunderstorm event of the year across much of the state next Tuesday/Wednesday. 12z Euro looks quite impressive, with a deep trough kicking out with a negative tilt across Texas.


I'm so ready 8-) Kicking winter to the curb


What winter???? I told you back in November that it would not snow in DFW this past winter.


the seemingly endless 34 and rain we had was our winter... :roll: maybe we can squeeze out one more later this month
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#178 Postby wxman57 » Wed Mar 06, 2019 8:47 pm

SoupBone wrote:Just for you, I hope the death ridge places itself squarely over SE Texas, that way, no hurricanes, and you get your heat. :lol:


Why, thank you, SoupBone! Can you move it over me next week?
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#179 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:42 pm

Days 10-14 on the GEFS :cold:

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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#180 Postby Ntxw » Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:50 pm

All the stuff that was trying to bud out prematurely has surely paid the price in NTX. Still not much leafing. The recent cold/hard freeze is keeping everything dormant. With the models trending for a chilly second half, may have to start thinking about top 10 coldest March.

Heat Miser's wall is not doing the job. Got to do better.
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