![Image](https://i.imgur.com/wW3e6x7.jpg)
We can see our newly upgraded TD 03W south of Guam while another one is near the dateline that the models have been so reluctant on. Keeps it weak like the others.
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Little change in forecast scenario for the three islands on this
side of Micronesia. Pohnpei remains within the northeast
convergence side of the trough to the south. Scattered showers can
be expected to last another 24 hours before the weather weakens
and pushes farther to the west. Kosrae also should be seeing less
periods of heavy rain by Friday. Recent satellite imagery shows
the near equatorial trough less concentrated and this is also
supported by today`s ASCAT scatterometer with little evidence of
an actual surface circulation. The GFS model has finally weakened
its development of any disturbance coming out of this and is now
closer to that of the ECMWF. There is still a chance of a couple
more spurts of energy coming out of this area and so its still
bares watching as the mid- to lower- tropospheric wind field
remains anchored in this location.
Following the above scenario for Eastern Micronesia, Chuuk
forecast remains relatively unchanged although timing of events
are bit more subjective. Even without a closed surface
circulation, models...both GFS and ECMWF...put some vorticity
(periods of scattered showers) over the region this weekend,
Friday through Sunday. Don`t expect much more than that.
On the annual weather outlook for Hong Kong in 2019, the tropical cyclone season may start in or after June this year. It is expected that there will be four to seven tropical cyclones coming within 500km of Hong Kong, which is normal. The annual rainfall is expected to be normal or above normal. Members of the public are reminded to take precautions in a timely manner.
TC development in this region is favored mostly by the GEFS and UK models whereas the ECMWF does not show significant development. Interested parties, especially those in Guam, are encouraged to consult local forecast offices and tropical cyclone forecast centers for the latest updates.
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