Texas Spring 2019

[bubba hotep]

00z Euro shows 3-5" across DFW over the next week

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS also very wet for DFW over the next two weeks.

[Cpv17]

12z GFS also very wet for DFW over the next two weeks.

I’m gonna have to disagree with the placement of all that qpf on the GFS. I think it’ll be spread out over a much larger portion of the state.

[Cpv17]

Here we go!

[bubba hotep]

[bubba hotep]

[Cpv17]

Terrible trends on the models. Not what I was hoping to wake up to

[rwfromkansas]

Shocker.

[Haris]

Loving the ensembles and 12 euro

[Ntxw]

Some excessive rainfall risks locally this week on either side and along I-35 (particularly west side). This will bring most above normal rainfall for April.

[Cpv17]

Loving the ensembles and 12 euro

Yeah not me lol sucks for my area. Models had me getting 3-4” to now maybe .50”

[weatherdude1108]

Slight risk for excessive rainfall for central Texas on Wednesday according to the WPC.



Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
448 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 24 2019 - 12Z Thu Apr 25 2019

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN TEXAS...AND AN ENCOMPASSING MARGINAL RISK FROM EASTERN
NEW MEXICO TO WESTERN MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS...

The frontal progression is expected to slow across central Texas
and Oklahoma while the moisture feeding into this boundary
increases. PW values of 1.75 with impulses of 2 inches will be
streaming into the Southern Plains on Day 3. Strong surface
convergence, strong instability, enhanced lift in the mid/upper
atmosphere will help sustain widespread convection over this
region. The latest model guidance continue to show high confidence
of QPF of 3 to 6+ inches across central/eastern Texas with a few
extending into southwest Oklahoma. High resolution guidance
depicts multiple hours where rainfall rates are 1 to 1.5
inches/per hour. Current 1 hour FFG for much of Texas is 2 to 3
hours, with 3-hourly values of 2 to 4 inches. Based on the setup,
expected QPF and high rainfall rates excessive rainfall will
likely be problematic across central Texas. A Slight Risk was
introduced for the center of the state. Confidence is fairly high
that locations will likely have rainfall exceeding FFG however the
exact placement is still questionable as of this issuance.
Depending on model trends and changing soil saturation with rain
today and on Day 2, portions of central/eastern Texas may need an
upgrade to Moderate Risk for as the threat for flash flooding
rises.


Campbell

[bubba hotep]

Some excessive rainfall risks locally this week on either side and along I-35 (particularly west side). This will bring most above normal rainfall for April.

DFW is about 1" over for April and near normal for Spring but still down for the year. A blend of the 00z guidance looks like 2-4" for DFW with the possibility of much higher amounts. It will be hard to pin down the jackpot areas in advance with multiple rounds of convection but there could be some big totals out there.

[Haris]

I think the models like the gfs aren’t handling the progression of the front well and we should see higher amounts in Austin. What do y’all think?

[South Texas Storms]

I think the models like the gfs aren’t handling the progression of the front well and we should see higher amounts in Austin. What do y’all think?

Yeah I'm favoring QPF amounts similar to the Euro right now. Fronts usually push farther south than the models indicate, which would lead to higher rainfall amounts across south central Texas.

I don't think the NAM rainfall totals look too bad right now either. Will be interested to see the WRF models as we get closer to the event.

[Haris]

Wow. The new ECM is coming 100% different from GFS. wooo

[weatherdude1108]

On the local weather, they were comparing two different models, and they were pretty similar.

[weatherdude1108]

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 24 2019 - 12Z Thu Apr 25 2019

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

The frontal progression, as discussed in the Day 2 ERD, will
continue to trek across central Texas and Oklahoma. Precipitable
water values of 1.5 to 1.75 will advect into the Southern Plains,
which is on the order of 1.5 to nearly 2 standard deviations above
the mean, aided by 25 to 35 southerly low level flow. Strong
surface convergence, instability (noted by surface based CAPE
>2000 J/kg) and enhanced lift in the mid/upper atmosphere will
help sustain widespread convection over this region. The latest
model guidance continues to show high confidence of QPF of 3 to 5+
inches across central/eastern Texas into far southwest Oklahoma.
High resolution guidance depicts multiple hours where rainfall
rates are 1 to 1.5 inches/per hour associated with convective
activity. Current 1 hour FFG for much of Texas is 2 to 3 hours,
with 3-hourly values of 2 to 4 inches. Based on the expected
setup, anticipate QPF and high rainfall rates will likely be
problematic across central Texas. After careful coordination, a
Slight Risk was maintained and refined for central TX into far
southern Oklahoma. Confidence is fairly high that some locations
will exceed FFG, however, the exact placement of the front and
thus the heaviest QPF axis is still unknown as of this issuance.
Depending on model trends and changing soil saturation from rains
expected late today and on Day 2, portions of central Texas will
likely need to be upgrade to a Moderate Risk as the threat for
flash flooding rises.

Campbell/Pagano

[Cpv17]

I hope you central Texas folks can get some good rain. Not too excited about this event here in southeast TX. Looks like less than an inch for us.

[TheProfessor]

I hope you guys enjoy your rain. After tomorrow if finally looks like I'll go a week without >50% of rain. Just gotta remember to bring my umbrella on a day with 30% rain because if not I'll be in that 30% area who sees rain lol.