Texas Spring 2019

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6059
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1241 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon May 06, 2019 11:45 am

Going to be some flooding concerns this week. #2015ing

 https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/1125373383552770048


0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5837
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1242 Postby bubba hotep » Mon May 06, 2019 3:23 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:Hmmmmm, well it's Spring Time in Texas so this is to be expected, right?

Also, where do you get the zoomed in SPC graphics? I can't find them on the site.


I was thinking more along the lines of D3 threats not really amounting to much for DFW. Some of the trends today seem to be pointing towards this possibly being a significant N. Texas event but we'll have to wait and see.

Here is the link to the images - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/
0 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6108
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1243 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon May 06, 2019 3:30 pm

:flag:
bubba hotep wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:Hmmmmm, well it's Spring Time in Texas so this is to be expected, right?

Also, where do you get the zoomed in SPC graphics? I can't find them on the site.


I was thinking more along the lines of D3 threats not really amounting to much for DFW. Some of the trends today seem to be pointing towards this possibly being a significant N. Texas event but we'll have to wait and see.

Here is the link to the images - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/



What are the signs that you’re seeing? I haven’t had much chance to look at anything besides the nam, which seems to want to bring a squall line in before noon Wednesday.
0 likes   

HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2540
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1244 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon May 06, 2019 3:32 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:Hmmmmm, well it's Spring Time in Texas so this is to be expected, right?

Also, where do you get the zoomed in SPC graphics? I can't find them on the site.


I was thinking more along the lines of D3 threats not really amounting to much for DFW. Some of the trends today seem to be pointing towards this possibly being a significant N. Texas event but we'll have to wait and see.

Here is the link to the images - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/


Thanks for the link. I was reading the page, they make mention of that being upgraded perhaps. I swear just a few days ago this was up north, now it shifted south, so who knows.
0 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22785
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1245 Postby Ntxw » Mon May 06, 2019 3:58 pm

I do think the Panhandle and NW Texas stands a good shot where initiation is for severe (supercells). North Texas/Central Texas proper due to timing and storm motion may favor MCS. This being Wednesday.

Things of course can change if timing changes.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1246 Postby Brent » Mon May 06, 2019 4:16 pm

FWD definitely leaning the early MCS way

The main concern for North and Central Texas appears to arrive
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. On late Tuesday
afternoon, as the upper shortwave spreads strong forcing for
ascent into the TX Panhandle, supercell thunderstorms are expected
to develop well west of our area. These should initially move
east-northeast with most of the activity remaining to the
northwest of our area by dark. As we get into the nighttime hours,
a low level jet strengthening to 40 kt will feed into a congealing
cluster of severe thunderstorms, allowing for the upscale growth
of a linear complex of storms by midnight. The orientation of a
broad 35-40 kt low level jet, along with a broad axis of
instability (1500-2000 J/kg) across North Texas late Tuesday night
suggests that MCS propagation will be east-southeast into our
region overnight Tuesday night. If this scenario pans out, which
is supported by most of the high resolution and global guidance,
it is unlikely that we`ll see a significant severe weather episode
on Wednesday. Usually when we get organized complexes of
thunderstorms through the region during the morning hours, it
becomes difficult for the atmosphere to recover in the absence of
a deep surface cyclone in the Plains to help strengthen moist
southerly flow or the absence of an additional upstream shortwave
trough.

Not to downplay the severe threat completely, but our current
thinking is that a linear complex of storms will develop and move
through during the late overnight/early morning hours on
Wednesday. This complex in itself could be severe with primarily a
damaging wind threat, even during the early morning hours. We`ll
have high PoPs across the northwest late Tuesday night, and across
most of the area before midday Wednesday, with considerably lower
PoPs Wednesday afternoon with the thinking that the atmosphere
across the region will be too worked over for additional severe
storms. This obviously comes with a big caveat. If the complex of
storms is considerably weaker or doesn`t pan out at all, then we
should have a pristine boundary layer to work with during peak
heating on Wednesday. An eastward surging dryline and convergence
along a southward moving front would be the primary foci for
convective development given that the shortwave will have pulled
off to the northeast. All modes of severe weather would be
possible in that scenario. It must be stressed that even with the
enhanced risk for severe weather in place across the region,
confidence is widespread significant severe weather is low.
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4979
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1247 Postby Cpv17 » Mon May 06, 2019 6:47 pm

Brent wrote:FWD definitely leaning the early MCS way

The main concern for North and Central Texas appears to arrive
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. On late Tuesday
afternoon, as the upper shortwave spreads strong forcing for
ascent into the TX Panhandle, supercell thunderstorms are expected
to develop well west of our area. These should initially move
east-northeast with most of the activity remaining to the
northwest of our area by dark. As we get into the nighttime hours,
a low level jet strengthening to 40 kt will feed into a congealing
cluster of severe thunderstorms, allowing for the upscale growth
of a linear complex of storms by midnight. The orientation of a
broad 35-40 kt low level jet, along with a broad axis of
instability (1500-2000 J/kg) across North Texas late Tuesday night
suggests that MCS propagation will be east-southeast into our
region overnight Tuesday night. If this scenario pans out, which
is supported by most of the high resolution and global guidance,
it is unlikely that we`ll see a significant severe weather episode
on Wednesday. Usually when we get organized complexes of
thunderstorms through the region during the morning hours, it
becomes difficult for the atmosphere to recover in the absence of
a deep surface cyclone in the Plains to help strengthen moist
southerly flow or the absence of an additional upstream shortwave
trough.

Not to downplay the severe threat completely, but our current
thinking is that a linear complex of storms will develop and move
through during the late overnight/early morning hours on
Wednesday. This complex in itself could be severe with primarily a
damaging wind threat, even during the early morning hours. We`ll
have high PoPs across the northwest late Tuesday night, and across
most of the area before midday Wednesday, with considerably lower
PoPs Wednesday afternoon with the thinking that the atmosphere
across the region will be too worked over for additional severe
storms. This obviously comes with a big caveat. If the complex of
storms is considerably weaker or doesn`t pan out at all, then we
should have a pristine boundary layer to work with during peak
heating on Wednesday. An eastward surging dryline and convergence
along a southward moving front would be the primary foci for
convective development given that the shortwave will have pulled
off to the northeast. All modes of severe weather would be
possible in that scenario. It must be stressed that even with the
enhanced risk for severe weather in place across the region,
confidence is widespread significant severe weather is low.



If this is the case, then why’s the SPC going with an enhanced risk in that area? Doesn’t make any sense. You rarely see storms maintain severe intensity when they come in during the morning hours from a storm complex that generated the day before.
1 likes   

User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4979
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1248 Postby Cpv17 » Mon May 06, 2019 6:49 pm

More rain on the way it appears.

Image
1 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1249 Postby Brent » Mon May 06, 2019 6:54 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:FWD definitely leaning the early MCS way

The main concern for North and Central Texas appears to arrive
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. On late Tuesday
afternoon, as the upper shortwave spreads strong forcing for
ascent into the TX Panhandle, supercell thunderstorms are expected
to develop well west of our area. These should initially move
east-northeast with most of the activity remaining to the
northwest of our area by dark. As we get into the nighttime hours,
a low level jet strengthening to 40 kt will feed into a congealing
cluster of severe thunderstorms, allowing for the upscale growth
of a linear complex of storms by midnight. The orientation of a
broad 35-40 kt low level jet, along with a broad axis of
instability (1500-2000 J/kg) across North Texas late Tuesday night
suggests that MCS propagation will be east-southeast into our
region overnight Tuesday night. If this scenario pans out, which
is supported by most of the high resolution and global guidance,
it is unlikely that we`ll see a significant severe weather episode
on Wednesday. Usually when we get organized complexes of
thunderstorms through the region during the morning hours, it
becomes difficult for the atmosphere to recover in the absence of
a deep surface cyclone in the Plains to help strengthen moist
southerly flow or the absence of an additional upstream shortwave
trough.

Not to downplay the severe threat completely, but our current
thinking is that a linear complex of storms will develop and move
through during the late overnight/early morning hours on
Wednesday. This complex in itself could be severe with primarily a
damaging wind threat, even during the early morning hours. We`ll
have high PoPs across the northwest late Tuesday night, and across
most of the area before midday Wednesday, with considerably lower
PoPs Wednesday afternoon with the thinking that the atmosphere
across the region will be too worked over for additional severe
storms. This obviously comes with a big caveat. If the complex of
storms is considerably weaker or doesn`t pan out at all, then we
should have a pristine boundary layer to work with during peak
heating on Wednesday. An eastward surging dryline and convergence
along a southward moving front would be the primary foci for
convective development given that the shortwave will have pulled
off to the northeast. All modes of severe weather would be
possible in that scenario. It must be stressed that even with the
enhanced risk for severe weather in place across the region,
confidence is widespread significant severe weather is low.



If this is the case, then why’s the SPC going with an enhanced risk in that area? Doesn’t make any sense. You rarely see storms maintain severe intensity when they come in during the morning hours from a storm complex that generated the day before.


Yeah i was surprised to see an enhanced earlier and talk of even higher probs coming to me unless the models are wrong its just a morning line
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22785
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1250 Postby Ntxw » Mon May 06, 2019 9:27 pm

Brent wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:FWD definitely leaning the early MCS way

The main concern for North and Central Texas appears to arrive
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. On late Tuesday
afternoon, as the upper shortwave spreads strong forcing for
ascent into the TX Panhandle, supercell thunderstorms are expected
to develop well west of our area. These should initially move
east-northeast with most of the activity remaining to the
northwest of our area by dark. As we get into the nighttime hours,
a low level jet strengthening to 40 kt will feed into a congealing
cluster of severe thunderstorms, allowing for the upscale growth
of a linear complex of storms by midnight. The orientation of a
broad 35-40 kt low level jet, along with a broad axis of
instability (1500-2000 J/kg) across North Texas late Tuesday night
suggests that MCS propagation will be east-southeast into our
region overnight Tuesday night. If this scenario pans out, which
is supported by most of the high resolution and global guidance,
it is unlikely that we`ll see a significant severe weather episode
on Wednesday. Usually when we get organized complexes of
thunderstorms through the region during the morning hours, it
becomes difficult for the atmosphere to recover in the absence of
a deep surface cyclone in the Plains to help strengthen moist
southerly flow or the absence of an additional upstream shortwave
trough.

Not to downplay the severe threat completely, but our current
thinking is that a linear complex of storms will develop and move
through during the late overnight/early morning hours on
Wednesday. This complex in itself could be severe with primarily a
damaging wind threat, even during the early morning hours. We`ll
have high PoPs across the northwest late Tuesday night, and across
most of the area before midday Wednesday, with considerably lower
PoPs Wednesday afternoon with the thinking that the atmosphere
across the region will be too worked over for additional severe
storms. This obviously comes with a big caveat. If the complex of
storms is considerably weaker or doesn`t pan out at all, then we
should have a pristine boundary layer to work with during peak
heating on Wednesday. An eastward surging dryline and convergence
along a southward moving front would be the primary foci for
convective development given that the shortwave will have pulled
off to the northeast. All modes of severe weather would be
possible in that scenario. It must be stressed that even with the
enhanced risk for severe weather in place across the region,
confidence is widespread significant severe weather is low.



If this is the case, then why’s the SPC going with an enhanced risk in that area? Doesn’t make any sense. You rarely see storms maintain severe intensity when they come in during the morning hours from a storm complex that generated the day before.


Yeah i was surprised to see an enhanced earlier and talk of even higher probs coming to me unless the models are wrong its just a morning line


Many people have run away with the idea that "enhanced" risk has become some sort of demarcation that it's an outbreak or something of that nature. All about the colors :D. It's a probabilistic forecast, elevated with good coverage of severe storms. MCS can be severe storms also, high winds and some hail with coverage confidence. You have to take it with context. They do mention that some super-cell modes in SW Oklahoma and West Texas where storms fire off so it is a forecast to keep an eye on for changes. But we can't always see enhanced and assume a big outbreak is coming. Moderate with strong wording and high risk days is what I usually look for with major outbreaks.
2 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5837
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1251 Postby bubba hotep » Mon May 06, 2019 9:48 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:

If this is the case, then why’s the SPC going with an enhanced risk in that area? Doesn’t make any sense. You rarely see storms maintain severe intensity when they come in during the morning hours from a storm complex that generated the day before.


Yeah i was surprised to see an enhanced earlier and talk of even higher probs coming to me unless the models are wrong its just a morning line


Many people have run away with the idea that "enhanced" risk has become some sort of demarcation that it's an outbreak or something of that nature. All about the colors :D. It's a probabilistic forecast, elevated with good coverage of severe storms. MCS can be severe storms also, high winds and some hail with coverage confidence. You have to take it with context. They do mention that some super-cell modes in SW Oklahoma and West Texas where storms fire off so it is a forecast to keep an eye on for changes. But we can't always see enhanced and assume a big outbreak is coming. Moderate with strong wording and high risk days is what I usually look for with major outbreaks.


SPC does have a bit of a history of the step approach by going D3 slight, D2 ENH, D1 MOD but it doesn't always work out like that. In the past, D3 with anything above "slight" seemed to indicate higher confidence in a svr wx outbreak but we have seen several D3 ENH carried forward to D1 this year. Also, as you pointed out a MCS doesn't necessarily clear an area of widespread svr wx and, in fact, MCS and/or Derecho can bring wide spread damage via high winds.
0 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

User avatar
Garnetcat5
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 196
Joined: Wed Apr 23, 2003 8:19 am
Location: Richmond, Tx

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1252 Postby Garnetcat5 » Mon May 06, 2019 10:38 pm

We didn’t flood in Harvey but became an island. I am shaking and wondering if we should evacuate. I am in Richmond and still have severe anxiety now.
0 likes   

User avatar
TheProfessor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3506
Age: 28
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
Location: Wichita, Kansas

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1253 Postby TheProfessor » Mon May 06, 2019 11:05 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:Well everyone, I officially graduated. One cool thing is that Atmospheric Science was one of the few majors to actually get printed on a degree. I'm going to be in New Orleans with my parents for the time being until I find a job. Not sure where I will be working, but I'm basically open to anywhere in the U.S lol.

Congrats young man!!! Time did fly by, did it not? It was just yesterday that you were in high school sneaking posts in while sitting in class. I always thought that hilarious. Now look, you have the option of taking a job at your choosing. Maybe you will come back to Texas and continue to post. Well done!! :D


Lol thank you. Yeah my best friend and I were some times unfocused in the class we had together. I definitely payed for that when I had to retake the class in college lol. Of course me being sick for a month that year didn't help either :p
1 likes   
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.

Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.

User avatar
TheProfessor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3506
Age: 28
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
Location: Wichita, Kansas

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1254 Postby TheProfessor » Mon May 06, 2019 11:06 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:Well everyone, I officially graduated. One cool thing is that Atmospheric Science was one of the few majors to actually get printed on a degree. I'm going to be in New Orleans with my parents for the time being until I find a job. Not sure where I will be working, but I'm basically open to anywhere in the U.S lol.



Gee, I remember when you were just a young pup..geeking out over weather..and now you are a pro met ( sniff sniff). Good luck young man and please stay on here and keep us straight..:)


And the geeking out has only just begun. You should see some of the NWS forecasters some times. They can get very giddy lol.
1 likes   
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.

Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.

User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4226
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1255 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon May 06, 2019 11:36 pm

Garnetcat5 wrote:We didn’t flood in Harvey but became an island. I am shaking and wondering if we should evacuate. I am in Richmond and still have severe anxiety now.


I wouldn't be too worried right now. I'm not seeing any Harvey-like rainfall indications with this upcoming wet weather pattern. We will likely see periods of rain, some heavy, but the risk of you seeing over 10 inches of rain is low.
0 likes   

User avatar
Haris
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1810
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1256 Postby Haris » Mon May 06, 2019 11:54 pm

WEEKLIES
1 likes   
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1257 Postby Brent » Tue May 07, 2019 12:08 am

DFW downgraded to slight on the day 2 Central and east TX is now the bullseye

Image
1 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4979
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1258 Postby Cpv17 » Tue May 07, 2019 7:22 am

Wow, the whole dang state gets drenched! :double:

Image
2 likes   

HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2540
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1259 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue May 07, 2019 8:55 am

I'll take an early morning squall line over afternoon super cells any day.
2 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

davidiowx
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 390
Joined: Tue Sep 10, 2013 11:07 am
Location: Richmond, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1260 Postby davidiowx » Tue May 07, 2019 10:42 am

Garnetcat5 wrote:We didn’t flood in Harvey but became an island. I am shaking and wondering if we should evacuate. I am in Richmond and still have severe anxiety now.


I am in Richmond as well and as of right now, the Brazos is expected to crest around 46.4 feet. During Harvey the river crested at 55.19 feet at the Richmond station. So do not anticipate a Harvey situation.

This is different in the way the River is already rising and we need to pay attention to how much rain falls north of us. But, although anything is possible, I can’t see any situation where we see Harvey type flooding on the Brazos as of now.

Rosharon on the other hand may have a little different issue. The Brazos is expected to crest at 49.1 feet this weekend and it was at 52.65 during Harvey. Again we need to see how much falls north of us through out the next few days.
1 likes   


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests