Texas Spring 2019

[1900hurricane]

Going to be some flooding concerns this week. #2015ing

 https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/1125373383552770048

[bubba hotep]

Hmmmmm, well it's Spring Time in Texas so this is to be expected, right?

Also, where do you get the zoomed in SPC graphics? I can't find them on the site.

I was thinking more along the lines of D3 threats not really amounting to much for DFW. Some of the trends today seem to be pointing towards this possibly being a significant N. Texas event but we'll have to wait and see.

Here is the link to the images - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/

[cheezyWXguy]

Hmmmmm, well it's Spring Time in Texas so this is to be expected, right?

Also, where do you get the zoomed in SPC graphics? I can't find them on the site.

I was thinking more along the lines of D3 threats not really amounting to much for DFW. Some of the trends today seem to be pointing towards this possibly being a significant N. Texas event but we'll have to wait and see.

Here is the link to the images - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/

What are the signs that you’re seeing? I haven’t had much chance to look at anything besides the nam, which seems to want to bring a squall line in before noon Wednesday.

[HockeyTx82]

Hmmmmm, well it's Spring Time in Texas so this is to be expected, right?

Also, where do you get the zoomed in SPC graphics? I can't find them on the site.

I was thinking more along the lines of D3 threats not really amounting to much for DFW. Some of the trends today seem to be pointing towards this possibly being a significant N. Texas event but we'll have to wait and see.

Here is the link to the images - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/

Thanks for the link. I was reading the page, they make mention of that being upgraded perhaps. I swear just a few days ago this was up north, now it shifted south, so who knows.

[Ntxw]

I do think the Panhandle and NW Texas stands a good shot where initiation is for severe (supercells). North Texas/Central Texas proper due to timing and storm motion may favor MCS. This being Wednesday.

Things of course can change if timing changes.

[Brent]

FWD definitely leaning the early MCS way

The main concern for North and Central Texas appears to arrive
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. On late Tuesday
afternoon, as the upper shortwave spreads strong forcing for
ascent into the TX Panhandle, supercell thunderstorms are expected
to develop well west of our area. These should initially move
east-northeast with most of the activity remaining to the
northwest of our area by dark. As we get into the nighttime hours,
a low level jet strengthening to 40 kt will feed into a congealing
cluster of severe thunderstorms, allowing for the upscale growth
of a linear complex of storms by midnight. The orientation of a
broad 35-40 kt low level jet, along with a broad axis of
instability (1500-2000 J/kg) across North Texas late Tuesday night
suggests that MCS propagation will be east-southeast into our
region overnight Tuesday night. If this scenario pans out, which
is supported by most of the high resolution and global guidance,
it is unlikely that we`ll see a significant severe weather episode
on Wednesday. Usually when we get organized complexes of
thunderstorms through the region during the morning hours, it
becomes difficult for the atmosphere to recover in the absence of
a deep surface cyclone in the Plains to help strengthen moist
southerly flow or the absence of an additional upstream shortwave
trough.

Not to downplay the severe threat completely, but our current
thinking is that a linear complex of storms will develop and move
through during the late overnight/early morning hours on
Wednesday. This complex in itself could be severe with primarily a
damaging wind threat, even during the early morning hours. We`ll
have high PoPs across the northwest late Tuesday night, and across
most of the area before midday Wednesday, with considerably lower
PoPs Wednesday afternoon with the thinking that the atmosphere
across the region will be too worked over for additional severe
storms. This obviously comes with a big caveat. If the complex of
storms is considerably weaker or doesn`t pan out at all, then we
should have a pristine boundary layer to work with during peak
heating on Wednesday. An eastward surging dryline and convergence
along a southward moving front would be the primary foci for
convective development given that the shortwave will have pulled
off to the northeast. All modes of severe weather would be
possible in that scenario. It must be stressed that even with the
enhanced risk for severe weather in place across the region,
confidence is widespread significant severe weather is low.

[Cpv17]

FWD definitely leaning the early MCS way

The main concern for North and Central Texas appears to arrive
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. On late Tuesday
afternoon, as the upper shortwave spreads strong forcing for
ascent into the TX Panhandle, supercell thunderstorms are expected
to develop well west of our area. These should initially move
east-northeast with most of the activity remaining to the
northwest of our area by dark. As we get into the nighttime hours,
a low level jet strengthening to 40 kt will feed into a congealing
cluster of severe thunderstorms, allowing for the upscale growth
of a linear complex of storms by midnight. The orientation of a
broad 35-40 kt low level jet, along with a broad axis of
instability (1500-2000 J/kg) across North Texas late Tuesday night
suggests that MCS propagation will be east-southeast into our
region overnight Tuesday night. If this scenario pans out, which
is supported by most of the high resolution and global guidance,
it is unlikely that we`ll see a significant severe weather episode
on Wednesday. Usually when we get organized complexes of
thunderstorms through the region during the morning hours, it
becomes difficult for the atmosphere to recover in the absence of
a deep surface cyclone in the Plains to help strengthen moist
southerly flow or the absence of an additional upstream shortwave
trough.

Not to downplay the severe threat completely, but our current
thinking is that a linear complex of storms will develop and move
through during the late overnight/early morning hours on
Wednesday. This complex in itself could be severe with primarily a
damaging wind threat, even during the early morning hours. We`ll
have high PoPs across the northwest late Tuesday night, and across
most of the area before midday Wednesday, with considerably lower
PoPs Wednesday afternoon with the thinking that the atmosphere
across the region will be too worked over for additional severe
storms. This obviously comes with a big caveat. If the complex of
storms is considerably weaker or doesn`t pan out at all, then we
should have a pristine boundary layer to work with during peak
heating on Wednesday. An eastward surging dryline and convergence
along a southward moving front would be the primary foci for
convective development given that the shortwave will have pulled
off to the northeast. All modes of severe weather would be
possible in that scenario. It must be stressed that even with the
enhanced risk for severe weather in place across the region,
confidence is widespread significant severe weather is low.

If this is the case, then why’s the SPC going with an enhanced risk in that area? Doesn’t make any sense. You rarely see storms maintain severe intensity when they come in during the morning hours from a storm complex that generated the day before.

[Cpv17]

More rain on the way it appears.

[Brent]

FWD definitely leaning the early MCS way

The main concern for North and Central Texas appears to arrive
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. On late Tuesday
afternoon, as the upper shortwave spreads strong forcing for
ascent into the TX Panhandle, supercell thunderstorms are expected
to develop well west of our area. These should initially move
east-northeast with most of the activity remaining to the
northwest of our area by dark. As we get into the nighttime hours,
a low level jet strengthening to 40 kt will feed into a congealing
cluster of severe thunderstorms, allowing for the upscale growth
of a linear complex of storms by midnight. The orientation of a
broad 35-40 kt low level jet, along with a broad axis of
instability (1500-2000 J/kg) across North Texas late Tuesday night
suggests that MCS propagation will be east-southeast into our
region overnight Tuesday night. If this scenario pans out, which
is supported by most of the high resolution and global guidance,
it is unlikely that we`ll see a significant severe weather episode
on Wednesday. Usually when we get organized complexes of
thunderstorms through the region during the morning hours, it
becomes difficult for the atmosphere to recover in the absence of
a deep surface cyclone in the Plains to help strengthen moist
southerly flow or the absence of an additional upstream shortwave
trough.

Not to downplay the severe threat completely, but our current
thinking is that a linear complex of storms will develop and move
through during the late overnight/early morning hours on
Wednesday. This complex in itself could be severe with primarily a
damaging wind threat, even during the early morning hours. We`ll
have high PoPs across the northwest late Tuesday night, and across
most of the area before midday Wednesday, with considerably lower
PoPs Wednesday afternoon with the thinking that the atmosphere
across the region will be too worked over for additional severe
storms. This obviously comes with a big caveat. If the complex of
storms is considerably weaker or doesn`t pan out at all, then we
should have a pristine boundary layer to work with during peak
heating on Wednesday. An eastward surging dryline and convergence
along a southward moving front would be the primary foci for
convective development given that the shortwave will have pulled
off to the northeast. All modes of severe weather would be
possible in that scenario. It must be stressed that even with the
enhanced risk for severe weather in place across the region,
confidence is widespread significant severe weather is low.

If this is the case, then why’s the SPC going with an enhanced risk in that area? Doesn’t make any sense. You rarely see storms maintain severe intensity when they come in during the morning hours from a storm complex that generated the day before.

Yeah i was surprised to see an enhanced earlier and talk of even higher probs coming to me unless the models are wrong its just a morning line

[Ntxw]

FWD definitely leaning the early MCS way

The main concern for North and Central Texas appears to arrive
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. On late Tuesday
afternoon, as the upper shortwave spreads strong forcing for
ascent into the TX Panhandle, supercell thunderstorms are expected
to develop well west of our area. These should initially move
east-northeast with most of the activity remaining to the
northwest of our area by dark. As we get into the nighttime hours,
a low level jet strengthening to 40 kt will feed into a congealing
cluster of severe thunderstorms, allowing for the upscale growth
of a linear complex of storms by midnight. The orientation of a
broad 35-40 kt low level jet, along with a broad axis of
instability (1500-2000 J/kg) across North Texas late Tuesday night
suggests that MCS propagation will be east-southeast into our
region overnight Tuesday night. If this scenario pans out, which
is supported by most of the high resolution and global guidance,
it is unlikely that we`ll see a significant severe weather episode
on Wednesday. Usually when we get organized complexes of
thunderstorms through the region during the morning hours, it
becomes difficult for the atmosphere to recover in the absence of
a deep surface cyclone in the Plains to help strengthen moist
southerly flow or the absence of an additional upstream shortwave
trough.

Not to downplay the severe threat completely, but our current
thinking is that a linear complex of storms will develop and move
through during the late overnight/early morning hours on
Wednesday. This complex in itself could be severe with primarily a
damaging wind threat, even during the early morning hours. We`ll
have high PoPs across the northwest late Tuesday night, and across
most of the area before midday Wednesday, with considerably lower
PoPs Wednesday afternoon with the thinking that the atmosphere
across the region will be too worked over for additional severe
storms. This obviously comes with a big caveat. If the complex of
storms is considerably weaker or doesn`t pan out at all, then we
should have a pristine boundary layer to work with during peak
heating on Wednesday. An eastward surging dryline and convergence
along a southward moving front would be the primary foci for
convective development given that the shortwave will have pulled
off to the northeast. All modes of severe weather would be
possible in that scenario. It must be stressed that even with the
enhanced risk for severe weather in place across the region,
confidence is widespread significant severe weather is low.

If this is the case, then why’s the SPC going with an enhanced risk in that area? Doesn’t make any sense. You rarely see storms maintain severe intensity when they come in during the morning hours from a storm complex that generated the day before.

Yeah i was surprised to see an enhanced earlier and talk of even higher probs coming to me unless the models are wrong its just a morning line

Many people have run away with the idea that "enhanced" risk has become some sort of demarcation that it's an outbreak or something of that nature. All about the colors . It's a probabilistic forecast, elevated with good coverage of severe storms. MCS can be severe storms also, high winds and some hail with coverage confidence. You have to take it with context. They do mention that some super-cell modes in SW Oklahoma and West Texas where storms fire off so it is a forecast to keep an eye on for changes. But we can't always see enhanced and assume a big outbreak is coming. Moderate with strong wording and high risk days is what I usually look for with major outbreaks.

[bubba hotep]

If this is the case, then why’s the SPC going with an enhanced risk in that area? Doesn’t make any sense. You rarely see storms maintain severe intensity when they come in during the morning hours from a storm complex that generated the day before.

Yeah i was surprised to see an enhanced earlier and talk of even higher probs coming to me unless the models are wrong its just a morning line

Many people have run away with the idea that "enhanced" risk has become some sort of demarcation that it's an outbreak or something of that nature. All about the colors . It's a probabilistic forecast, elevated with good coverage of severe storms. MCS can be severe storms also, high winds and some hail with coverage confidence. You have to take it with context. They do mention that some super-cell modes in SW Oklahoma and West Texas where storms fire off so it is a forecast to keep an eye on for changes. But we can't always see enhanced and assume a big outbreak is coming. Moderate with strong wording and high risk days is what I usually look for with major outbreaks.

SPC does have a bit of a history of the step approach by going D3 slight, D2 ENH, D1 MOD but it doesn't always work out like that. In the past, D3 with anything above "slight" seemed to indicate higher confidence in a svr wx outbreak but we have seen several D3 ENH carried forward to D1 this year. Also, as you pointed out a MCS doesn't necessarily clear an area of widespread svr wx and, in fact, MCS and/or Derecho can bring wide spread damage via high winds.

[Garnetcat5]

We didn’t flood in Harvey but became an island. I am shaking and wondering if we should evacuate. I am in Richmond and still have severe anxiety now.

[TheProfessor]

Well everyone, I officially graduated. One cool thing is that Atmospheric Science was one of the few majors to actually get printed on a degree. I'm going to be in New Orleans with my parents for the time being until I find a job. Not sure where I will be working, but I'm basically open to anywhere in the U.S lol.

Congrats young man!!! Time did fly by, did it not? It was just yesterday that you were in high school sneaking posts in while sitting in class. I always thought that hilarious. Now look, you have the option of taking a job at your choosing. Maybe you will come back to Texas and continue to post. Well done!!

Lol thank you. Yeah my best friend and I were some times unfocused in the class we had together. I definitely payed for that when I had to retake the class in college lol. Of course me being sick for a month that year didn't help either :p

[TheProfessor]

Well everyone, I officially graduated. One cool thing is that Atmospheric Science was one of the few majors to actually get printed on a degree. I'm going to be in New Orleans with my parents for the time being until I find a job. Not sure where I will be working, but I'm basically open to anywhere in the U.S lol.

Gee, I remember when you were just a young pup..geeking out over weather..and now you are a pro met ( sniff sniff). Good luck young man and please stay on here and keep us straight..

And the geeking out has only just begun. You should see some of the NWS forecasters some times. They can get very giddy lol.

[South Texas Storms]

We didn’t flood in Harvey but became an island. I am shaking and wondering if we should evacuate. I am in Richmond and still have severe anxiety now.

I wouldn't be too worried right now. I'm not seeing any Harvey-like rainfall indications with this upcoming wet weather pattern. We will likely see periods of rain, some heavy, but the risk of you seeing over 10 inches of rain is low.

[Haris]

WEEKLIES

[Brent]

DFW downgraded to slight on the day 2 Central and east TX is now the bullseye

[Cpv17]

Wow, the whole dang state gets drenched!

[HockeyTx82]

I'll take an early morning squall line over afternoon super cells any day.

[davidiowx]

We didn’t flood in Harvey but became an island. I am shaking and wondering if we should evacuate. I am in Richmond and still have severe anxiety now.

I am in Richmond as well and as of right now, the Brazos is expected to crest around 46.4 feet. During Harvey the river crested at 55.19 feet at the Richmond station. So do not anticipate a Harvey situation.

This is different in the way the River is already rising and we need to pay attention to how much rain falls north of us. But, although anything is possible, I can’t see any situation where we see Harvey type flooding on the Brazos as of now.

Rosharon on the other hand may have a little different issue. The Brazos is expected to crest at 49.1 feet this weekend and it was at 52.65 during Harvey. Again we need to see how much falls north of us through out the next few days.