Texas Spring 2019

[Haris]

Austin folks are going to like today’s 12z Euro

Ummmm not really lol. That would be a disaster and we will have to boil water for another 2 weeks just like Oct. lol. Hopefully we can get those totals in a slightly longer period of time.

[Cpv17]

Austin folks are going to like today’s 12z Euro

Ummmm not really lol. That would be a disaster and we will have to boil water for another 2 weeks just like Oct. lol. Hopefully we can get those totals in a slightly longer period of time.

Lol well wow, okay then! But I wonder why the GFS is significantly drier?

[1900hurricane]

So when’s our next rainmaker? Looks like this one is pretty much over for my area.

Third or fourth week of May. Winds will reverse near 120W from easterly to westerly signaling an EPAC awakening. Invest or depression of some sort and plume associated will feed Texas. All models are showing a major block over Hudson Bay (west -NAO) that will bring a major trough from GOA -> Southwest that will be the feature to draw up moisture from the deep Pacific tropics.

https://images2.imgbox.com/85/dc/G4iEfxRc_o.gif

It is a classic Spring flooding type pattern. The fact that the water basins are at capacity is pre-conditioning for major flood.

https://images2.imgbox.com/e6/10/29YarGkd_o.jpg

https://images2.imgbox.com/be/0f/n8h9ZLsE_o.jpg

That GEFS mean is a work of art. Just in time for the start of my my chase trip too!

[Cpv17]

So when’s our next rainmaker? Looks like this one is pretty much over for my area.

Third or fourth week of May. Winds will reverse near 120W from easterly to westerly signaling an EPAC awakening. Invest or depression of some sort and plume associated will feed Texas. All models are showing a major block over Hudson Bay (west -NAO) that will bring a major trough from GOA -> Southwest that will be the feature to draw up moisture from the deep Pacific tropics.

https://images2.imgbox.com/85/dc/G4iEfxRc_o.gif

It is a classic Spring flooding type pattern. The fact that the water basins are at capacity is pre-conditioning for major flood.

https://images2.imgbox.com/e6/10/29YarGkd_o.jpg

https://images2.imgbox.com/be/0f/n8h9ZLsE_o.jpg

That GEFS mean is a work of art. Just in time for the start of my my chase trip too!

What’s it showing?

[TexasF6]

A foot or so of rain in Travis & Williamson Counties I-35 corridor would be devastating. Euro is bouncing the area of greatest rainfall around in the subsequent runs. A very interesting but not yet disturbing trend.

[Cpv17]

A foot or so of rain in Travis & Williamson Counties I-35 corridor would be devastating. Euro is bouncing the area of greatest rainfall around in the subsequent runs. A very interesting but not yet disturbing trend.

12z Euro took it away. Overall it appears a somewhat boring pattern compared to what it’s been over the next week or so.

[1900hurricane]

Third or fourth week of May. Winds will reverse near 120W from easterly to westerly signaling an EPAC awakening. Invest or depression of some sort and plume associated will feed Texas. All models are showing a major block over Hudson Bay (west -NAO) that will bring a major trough from GOA -> Southwest that will be the feature to draw up moisture from the deep Pacific tropics.

https://images2.imgbox.com/85/dc/G4iEfxRc_o.gif

It is a classic Spring flooding type pattern. The fact that the water basins are at capacity is pre-conditioning for major flood.

https://images2.imgbox.com/e6/10/29YarGkd_o.jpg

https://images2.imgbox.com/be/0f/n8h9ZLsE_o.jpg

That GEFS mean is a work of art. Just in time for the start of my my chase trip too!

What’s it showing?

 https://twitter.com/ahberrington/status/1127639071797534720

[Cpv17]

That GEFS mean is a work of art. Just in time for the start of my my chase trip too!

What’s it showing?

https://twitter.com/ahberrington/status/1127639071797534720

Holy cow that’s awesome!!

[HockeyTx82]

What does all this mean? When, where and how rare of a setup is this........

[Cpv17]

What does all this mean? When, where and how rare of a setup is this........

Look at the placement of that trough over the west and the raging jet stream. Spells trouble over the southern plains.

[Lagreeneyes03]

What does all this mean? When, where and how rare of a setup is this........

Look at the placement of that trough over the west and the raging jet stream. Spells trouble over the southern plains.

Severe for DFW?

[HockeyTx82]

What does all this mean? When, where and how rare of a setup is this........

Look at the placement of that trough over the west and the raging jet stream. Spells trouble over the southern plains.

Severe for DFW?

I guess this is what they are looking at

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

[bubba hotep]

SPC D6 for N. Texas. What yall got for D3 & D1? ENH then Slight lol

[bubba hotep]

What looked like a decent mid-week system a few days ago has dried up now that the upper level energy is shearing out into the base of an EC trough. The only reason I mention that is because that seemed to plague us all winter, bad memories!

[HockeyTx82]

So in the Winter don't trust long range, in Spring take them as Gospel?

So someone Tweets long range model outputs and people go with it?

I trust SPC but even then the caveat is subject to change.

This site is the closest I get to social media in any form.

[Brent]

So in the Winter don't trust long range, in Spring take them as Gospel?

So someone Tweets long range model outputs and people go with it?

I trust SPC but even then the caveat is subject to change.

This site is the closest I get to social media in any form.

I don't disagree here but where we live sadly it is way more likely to get severe wx than snow...

[dhweather]

So in the Winter don't trust long range, in Spring take them as Gospel?

So someone Tweets long range model outputs and people go with it?

I trust SPC but even then the caveat is subject to change.

This site is the closest I get to social media in any form.

It's really hard to get the ingredients for WInter Weather this far south, so that leads to understandable skepticism in the winter.

It's really easy to get the ingredients for severe weather this far south, leading to increased belief in the models, within reason. > 5 days out, trust none of them. They may give you a general idea of what may happen and the overall pattern, but not the fine details.

[HockeyTx82]

So in the Winter don't trust long range, in Spring take them as Gospel?

So someone Tweets long range model outputs and people go with it?

I trust SPC but even then the caveat is subject to change.

This site is the closest I get to social media in any form.

It's really hard to get the ingredients for WInter Weather this far south, so that leads to understandable skepticism in the winter.

It's really easy to get the ingredients for severe weather this far south, leading to increased belief in the models, within reason. > 5 days out, trust none of them. They may give you a general idea of what may happen and the overall pattern, but not the fine details.

Oh I know, just reading that Twitter post, whomever that was seemed to be rather zealous. I blame a lot of the hype for severe weather events to posts like that. How did we manage to make it this far as a society without Facechat and Snapbook.......

[TheProfessor]

The CIPs Analogs have definitely caught onto the possible severe weather on Saturday(and the day before out west as well.)







Climatology says Severe weather starts to shift further north around this time of year. However, the GFS is quite a bit faster and north of the FV3 and CMC and even then the 0-3km shear is fairly impressive and the SB CAPE is fairly high in north Texas as well. It will definitely be interesting to see how the models progress this week.

[gpsnowman]

A dry week ahead with some mid to upper 80's forecasted. Not a true taste of summer but a reminder of what is coming. Yuck.