Texas Spring 2019

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Haris
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1810
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1421 Postby Haris » Sat May 11, 2019 3:22 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Austin folks are going to like today’s 12z Euro :lol:



Ummmm not really lol. That would be a disaster and we will have to boil water for another 2 weeks just like Oct. lol. Hopefully we can get those totals in a slightly longer period of time.
0 likes   
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4979
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1422 Postby Cpv17 » Sat May 11, 2019 4:17 pm

Haris wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Austin folks are going to like today’s 12z Euro :lol:



Ummmm not really lol. That would be a disaster and we will have to boil water for another 2 weeks just like Oct. lol. Hopefully we can get those totals in a slightly longer period of time.


Lol well wow, okay then! But I wonder why the GFS is significantly drier?
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6059
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1423 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat May 11, 2019 10:56 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:So when’s our next rainmaker? Looks like this one is pretty much over for my area.


Third or fourth week of May. Winds will reverse near 120W from easterly to westerly signaling an EPAC awakening. Invest or depression of some sort and plume associated will feed Texas. All models are showing a major block over Hudson Bay (west -NAO) that will bring a major trough from GOA -> Southwest that will be the feature to draw up moisture from the deep Pacific tropics.

https://images2.imgbox.com/85/dc/G4iEfxRc_o.gif

It is a classic Spring flooding type pattern. The fact that the water basins are at capacity is pre-conditioning for major flood.

https://images2.imgbox.com/e6/10/29YarGkd_o.jpg

https://images2.imgbox.com/be/0f/n8h9ZLsE_o.jpg

That GEFS mean is a work of art. Just in time for the start of my my chase trip too!
1 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4979
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1424 Postby Cpv17 » Sun May 12, 2019 12:37 am

1900hurricane wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:So when’s our next rainmaker? Looks like this one is pretty much over for my area.


Third or fourth week of May. Winds will reverse near 120W from easterly to westerly signaling an EPAC awakening. Invest or depression of some sort and plume associated will feed Texas. All models are showing a major block over Hudson Bay (west -NAO) that will bring a major trough from GOA -> Southwest that will be the feature to draw up moisture from the deep Pacific tropics.

https://images2.imgbox.com/85/dc/G4iEfxRc_o.gif

It is a classic Spring flooding type pattern. The fact that the water basins are at capacity is pre-conditioning for major flood.

https://images2.imgbox.com/e6/10/29YarGkd_o.jpg

https://images2.imgbox.com/be/0f/n8h9ZLsE_o.jpg

That GEFS mean is a work of art. Just in time for the start of my my chase trip too!


What’s it showing?
0 likes   

User avatar
TexasF6
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 816
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:33 pm
Location: Austin, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1425 Postby TexasF6 » Sun May 12, 2019 2:38 pm

A foot or so of rain in Travis & Williamson Counties I-35 corridor would be devastating. Euro is bouncing the area of greatest rainfall around in the subsequent runs. A very interesting but not yet disturbing trend. :double:
0 likes   

User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4979
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1426 Postby Cpv17 » Sun May 12, 2019 3:01 pm

TexasF6 wrote:A foot or so of rain in Travis & Williamson Counties I-35 corridor would be devastating. Euro is bouncing the area of greatest rainfall around in the subsequent runs. A very interesting but not yet disturbing trend. :double:


12z Euro took it away. Overall it appears a somewhat boring pattern compared to what it’s been over the next week or so.
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6059
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1427 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun May 12, 2019 4:25 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Third or fourth week of May. Winds will reverse near 120W from easterly to westerly signaling an EPAC awakening. Invest or depression of some sort and plume associated will feed Texas. All models are showing a major block over Hudson Bay (west -NAO) that will bring a major trough from GOA -> Southwest that will be the feature to draw up moisture from the deep Pacific tropics.

https://images2.imgbox.com/85/dc/G4iEfxRc_o.gif

It is a classic Spring flooding type pattern. The fact that the water basins are at capacity is pre-conditioning for major flood.

https://images2.imgbox.com/e6/10/29YarGkd_o.jpg

https://images2.imgbox.com/be/0f/n8h9ZLsE_o.jpg

That GEFS mean is a work of art. Just in time for the start of my my chase trip too!


What’s it showing?

 https://twitter.com/ahberrington/status/1127639071797534720


1 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4979
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1428 Postby Cpv17 » Sun May 12, 2019 6:58 pm

1900hurricane wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:That GEFS mean is a work of art. Just in time for the start of my my chase trip too!


What’s it showing?

https://twitter.com/ahberrington/status/1127639071797534720


Holy cow that’s awesome!!
0 likes   

HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2540
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1429 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sun May 12, 2019 9:48 pm

What does all this mean? When, where and how rare of a setup is this........
0 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4979
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1430 Postby Cpv17 » Sun May 12, 2019 11:37 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:What does all this mean? When, where and how rare of a setup is this........


Look at the placement of that trough over the west and the raging jet stream. Spells trouble over the southern plains.
0 likes   

Lagreeneyes03
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 558
Joined: Mon Dec 09, 2013 10:53 am
Location: Luxurious Lake Grapevine

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1431 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Mon May 13, 2019 12:50 am

Cpv17 wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:What does all this mean? When, where and how rare of a setup is this........


Look at the placement of that trough over the west and the raging jet stream. Spells trouble over the southern plains.


Severe for DFW?
0 likes   
I'm a Princess, not a forecaster.

HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2540
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1432 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon May 13, 2019 6:39 am

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:What does all this mean? When, where and how rare of a setup is this........


Look at the placement of that trough over the west and the raging jet stream. Spells trouble over the southern plains.


Severe for DFW?


I guess this is what they are looking at

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
0 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5837
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1433 Postby bubba hotep » Mon May 13, 2019 9:12 am

SPC D6 for N. Texas. What yall got for D3 & D1? ENH then Slight lol

Image
0 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5837
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1434 Postby bubba hotep » Mon May 13, 2019 9:42 am

What looked like a decent mid-week system a few days ago has dried up now that the upper level energy is shearing out into the base of an EC trough. The only reason I mention that is because that seemed to plague us all winter, bad memories!
2 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2540
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1435 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon May 13, 2019 11:49 am

So in the Winter don't trust long range, in Spring take them as Gospel?

So someone Tweets long range model outputs and people go with it?

I trust SPC but even then the caveat is subject to change.

This site is the closest I get to social media in any form.
0 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38089
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1436 Postby Brent » Mon May 13, 2019 12:22 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:So in the Winter don't trust long range, in Spring take them as Gospel?

So someone Tweets long range model outputs and people go with it?

I trust SPC but even then the caveat is subject to change.

This site is the closest I get to social media in any form.


I don't disagree here but where we live sadly it is way more likely to get severe wx than snow...
1 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1437 Postby dhweather » Mon May 13, 2019 3:12 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:So in the Winter don't trust long range, in Spring take them as Gospel?

So someone Tweets long range model outputs and people go with it?

I trust SPC but even then the caveat is subject to change.

This site is the closest I get to social media in any form.



It's really hard to get the ingredients for WInter Weather this far south, so that leads to understandable skepticism in the winter.

It's really easy to get the ingredients for severe weather this far south, leading to increased belief in the models, within reason. > 5 days out, trust none of them. They may give you a general idea of what may happen and the overall pattern, but not the fine details.
1 likes   
The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2540
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1438 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon May 13, 2019 3:17 pm

dhweather wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:So in the Winter don't trust long range, in Spring take them as Gospel?

So someone Tweets long range model outputs and people go with it?

I trust SPC but even then the caveat is subject to change.

This site is the closest I get to social media in any form.



It's really hard to get the ingredients for WInter Weather this far south, so that leads to understandable skepticism in the winter.

It's really easy to get the ingredients for severe weather this far south, leading to increased belief in the models, within reason. > 5 days out, trust none of them. They may give you a general idea of what may happen and the overall pattern, but not the fine details.


Oh I know, just reading that Twitter post, whomever that was seemed to be rather zealous. I blame a lot of the hype for severe weather events to posts like that. How did we manage to make it this far as a society without Facechat and Snapbook.......
1 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

User avatar
TheProfessor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3506
Age: 28
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
Location: Wichita, Kansas

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1439 Postby TheProfessor » Mon May 13, 2019 3:26 pm

The CIPs Analogs have definitely caught onto the possible severe weather on Saturday(and the day before out west as well.)

Image

Image

Image

Climatology says Severe weather starts to shift further north around this time of year. However, the GFS is quite a bit faster and north of the FV3 and CMC and even then the 0-3km shear is fairly impressive and the SB CAPE is fairly high in north Texas as well. It will definitely be interesting to see how the models progress this week.
2 likes   
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.

Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.

gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3185
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Grand Prairie Tx

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1440 Postby gpsnowman » Mon May 13, 2019 4:46 pm

A dry week ahead with some mid to upper 80's forecasted. Not a true taste of summer but a reminder of what is coming. Yuck. :(
1 likes   


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane and 20 guests