Texas Spring 2019

[starsfan65]

Holy cow, check out the new outlook just released. EVEN BIGGER high risk and slight nudged now over Dallas county instead of just Tarrant.

What are the chances of that moving even further east? It kind of seems like DFW has some kind of atmospherical conditon that's preventing super severe storms. they all seem to be the the West/reforming East and North/South of us.

For DFW it is the same game as before. IF lone cells pop then they will quickly be severe. As for the main event timing is storms fire over NW Texas and line up as they reach DFW overnight or early morning. It has been timing that so far has prevented bigger things in the metroplex.

In the past the ideal timing is when cells fire over the western counties or overhead before congealing. Storms are often at their most powerful when they initiate and don't have to compete with other storms.

We can't keep our guard down here in DFW today and tonight.

[Texas Snowman]

PDS tornado watch coming soon for SW Oklahoma.

[dhweather]

Special sounding at 15Z from OUN, hopefully they do another around 18Z

[Texas Snowman]

Mesoscale Discussion 0699
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Areas affected...southwest into central OK...western north-central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 201617Z - 201845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch will likely be needed for portions of central and western OK.

Observational trends and short-term model guidance suggest a watch being issued during the 1pm-2pm period.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a bubbling cumulus field over western north-central TX into southwest and south-central OK. Rapid moisture advection is occurring late this morning with surface dewpoints rising into the lower 70s over southern OK.
Upwards of 4000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected by early to mid afternoon across western and central OK with intensifying wind profiles.

Short-term model guidance appears to have a reasonable depiction of free warm sector initiation occurring over southwest and south-central OK during the 2-3pm period. The observational trend in visible satellite imagery showing more pronounced bands of low cloud cover ---perhaps indicative of horizontal convective rolls and/or low-level confluence zones is supportive evidence for this model-based depiction. The expectation is for storms to develop on the northern half of these cloud features with explosive supercell development likely thereafter. Forecast soundings show a very rare combination of intense low-level SRH, very moist boundary, and extreme buoyancy. As such, the risk for strong to violent tornadoes appears to be increasing later this afternoon into the early evening.

..Smith.. 05/20/2019

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON 34199717 33829936 34169988 35509993 35899882 36029706
35629678 34609685 34199717

[Texas Snowman]

@KOCOdamonlane — Tornado Risk has increased for Oklahoma! 45% Tor hatched.

@KOCOdamonlane — OKC-West and South: If you can't get home by 4pm then stay at work. Multiple tornadic supercells will be moving in fast during the PM commute.

[Lagreeneyes03]

STP is up to 11 across parts of OK and NW TX, that's seriously insane. Even the STP of 3-7 over DFW is crazy

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D7A8YioXoAECa6d.png

Why is it so varied right over the metroplex? 2-6 in Tarrant county alone? Do the lakes cause any of that?

[Texas Snowman]

@NWSSPC — The latest forecast from SPC has increased the tornado probabilities from 30% to 45% from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma.

The last time a 45% tornado outlook was issued was during the Tornado Outbreak in Oklahoma and Kansas on 14 April 2012.

[Texas Snowman]

@theweathermanda — One thing about today that bears a lot of similarity to 27 April 2011 is the evolution & structure of warm sector cloud bands. Satellite clearly shows the presence of both longitudinal and transverse modes. Interactions between these bands will likely determine where CI occurs.

[Texas Snowman]

@TornadoTitans — Wow. 45% tornado probabilities within 20 miles of any given point. That's a near 50/50 shot of a tornadic storm being very near you today. Includes parts of OKC metro.

[Tireman4]

@theweathermanda — One thing about today that bears a lot of similarity to 27 April 2011 is the evolution & structure of warm sector cloud bands. Satellite clearly shows the presence of both longitudinal and transverse modes. Interactions between these bands will likely determine where CI occurs.

Was that not the Tuscaloosa, AL Tornado? ( Well, part of the outbreak)

The 2011 Tuscaloosa–Birmingham tornado was a large and violent EF4 multiple-vortex tornado that devastated portions of Tuscaloosa and Birmingham, Alabama, as well as smaller communities and rural areas between the two cities, during the late afternoon and early evening of Wednesday, April 27, 2011.

[Texas Snowman]

Yes, the same deadly tornado outbreak that produced the Tuscaloosa EF-4.

[Texas Snowman]

@Doc_Sanger — Looks like target area for long-lived strong & violent tornadoes will be in the Crowell-Quanah Texas area west & southwest of Wichita Falls according to SPC Significant Tornado Parameter. Stay safe everyone! Hoping these beast twisters go over open areas.

[Texas Snowman]

Stay safe Yukon!!!

[Texas Snowman]

@KOCOdamonlane — Oklahoma: Tornado Warnings will be issued fast today.

[Texas Snowman]

Rick Smith, warnings coordinator meteorologist for NWS Norman:

@ounwcm — Things are about to get busy. I’ve never hoped for a busted forecast more than I am today. Please be safe. #okwx

[Texas Snowman]

@Doc_Sanger — If you live anywhere from Wichita Falls area & SW/C OK, you need to be ready to take shelter ASAP as these storms will rapidly develop & intensify into tornadic supercells w/in 30 minutes of forming. If an EF-4/5 heading your way, seek shelter underground!

[Brent]

@theweathermanda — One thing about today that bears a lot of similarity to 27 April 2011 is the evolution & structure of warm sector cloud bands. Satellite clearly shows the presence of both longitudinal and transverse modes. Interactions between these bands will likely determine where CI occurs.

Was that not the Tuscaloosa, AL Tornado? ( Well, part of the outbreak)

The 2011 Tuscaloosa–Birmingham tornado was a large and violent EF4 multiple-vortex tornado that devastated portions of Tuscaloosa and Birmingham, Alabama, as well as smaller communities and rural areas between the two cities, during the late afternoon and early evening of Wednesday, April 27, 2011.

Yup I still lived in Alabama then one of the deadliest outbreaks ever too

[Texas Snowman]

@webberweather — It's beyond obvious by now, but this 16z HRRR sounding for the entirety of southwestern OK is hands-down the craziest pre-severe environmental forecast sounding I've ever seen. #okwx

[Texas Snowman]

PDS Tornado Watch in Panhandle and part of the Big Country:

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 197
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
West Texas including much of the Panhandle

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM until
800 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely
Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4
inches in diameter expected
Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Intense tornadic supercell thunderstorms are expected to
develop across west Texas as the eastern half of the Texas
Panhandle. In addition to the risk of strong tornadoes, very large
hail and damaging winds are likely in the strongest cells.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
east and west of a line from 50 miles east northeast of Amarillo TX
to 35 miles east of Big Spring TX. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 196...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Hart

[Texas Snowman]

@NWSNorman — 12:39 pm - our latest weather balloon data shows the cap is pretty much gone over central Oklahoma. We are starting to see very early signs of storm development in several areas. Storms will get bad quickly. Stay alert!