The happy hour run 18z has way less of intensification. A struggling TC..981 mb...
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Ai yai yai...
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euro6208 wrote:Well the non happy hour run 12z had this peaking at 925 mb.
The happy hour run 18z has way less of intensification. A struggling TC..981 mb...![]()
Ai yai yai...
Kingarabian wrote:euro6208 wrote:Well the non happy hour run 12z had this peaking at 925 mb.
The happy hour run 18z has way less of intensification. A struggling TC..981 mb...![]()
Ai yai yai...
Im guessing the non happy hour GFS runs have switched as the 00z GFS run is stronger
Tailspin wrote:Appears on phase to be warm core tropical to begin with.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 6/178.html
euro6208 wrote:Tailspin wrote:Appears on phase to be warm core tropical to begin with.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 6/178.html
GFS brings it to land sooner. 984 mb straight into Hong Kong.
As the convective envelope of the MJO moves toward the central and eastern Pacific (Phase 6/7) during the next two weeks, this should support tropical cyclone development for the western Pacific basin. For Week-1, there is high confidence in possible TC formation over the area east of the Philippines, where models are indicating a closed low tracking northwestward later in the period. Over the Bay of Bengal, there is moderate confidence in another TC formation. The GEFS is showing enhanced rainfall over the region with no closed low, while other models are indicating TC formation. Continuing into Week-2, the set up over the western Pacific is expected remain conducive to TC formation.
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