ATL: BARRY - Models

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PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#221 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:59 am

Turning north and deepening to 989mb at 102 hrs. Looks like Vermilion Parish, LA

Edit: then due west at 108 hours lol, motion seems erratic this run
Last edited by PTrackerLA on Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#222 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:59 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#223 Postby Siker » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:00 am

Yikes on the UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 28.2N 87.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.07.2019 48 28.1N 88.8W 1005 32
0000UTC 12.07.2019 60 27.8N 90.0W 995 43
1200UTC 12.07.2019 72 28.3N 91.6W 982 68
0000UTC 13.07.2019 84 28.6N 92.6W 966 75
1200UTC 13.07.2019 96 29.8N 93.6W 946 82
0000UTC 14.07.2019 108 31.5N 94.2W 975 40
1200UTC 14.07.2019 120 33.2N 94.5W 980 39
0000UTC 15.07.2019 132 34.8N 95.2W 988 28
1200UTC 15.07.2019 144 36.2N 95.7W 994 28
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#224 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:02 am

Siker wrote:Yikes on the UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 28.2N 87.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.07.2019 48 28.1N 88.8W 1005 32
0000UTC 12.07.2019 60 27.8N 90.0W 995 43
1200UTC 12.07.2019 72 28.3N 91.6W 982 68
0000UTC 13.07.2019 84 28.6N 92.6W 966 75
1200UTC 13.07.2019 96 29.8N 93.6W 946 82
0000UTC 14.07.2019 108 31.5N 94.2W 975 40
1200UTC 14.07.2019 120 33.2N 94.5W 980 39
0000UTC 15.07.2019 132 34.8N 95.2W 988 28
1200UTC 15.07.2019 144 36.2N 95.7W 994 28


That's a good shift west by the UKMET, closer to the GFS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#225 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:04 am

Siker wrote:Yikes on the UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 28.2N 87.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.07.2019 48 28.1N 88.8W 1005 32
0000UTC 12.07.2019 60 27.8N 90.0W 995 43
1200UTC 12.07.2019 72 28.3N 91.6W 982 68
0000UTC 13.07.2019 84 28.6N 92.6W 966 75
1200UTC 13.07.2019 96 29.8N 93.6W 946 82
0000UTC 14.07.2019 108 31.5N 94.2W 975 40
1200UTC 14.07.2019 120 33.2N 94.5W 980 39
0000UTC 15.07.2019 132 34.8N 95.2W 988 28
1200UTC 15.07.2019 144 36.2N 95.7W 994 28


946mb. :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#226 Postby tolakram » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:04 am

Image

Legacy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#227 Postby StormLogic » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:04 am



Euro and GFS getting closer and closer with path, I expect more west in the coming days
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#228 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:04 am

Why do these GFS runs seem so erratic in motion? And this run is quite a change from its previous. Now an extreme SW Louisiana landfall?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#229 Postby Steve » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:05 am

OG GFS makes a move toward SE LA and ends up curving up and hitting the Mississippi Gulf Coast. The GFS Legacy always had a known right-bias. Good riddance.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#230 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:05 am

StormLogic wrote:


Euro and GFS getting closer and closer with path, I expect more west in the coming days


Well, the trend by the GFS and Euro has been to the right, lol.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#231 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:06 am

Looks like the UKMET makes landfall right near Holly Beach, LA and continues on a NNW heading. The intensity is downright alarming.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#232 Postby LeonardRay » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:07 am

StormLogic wrote:


Euro and GFS getting closer and closer with path, I expect more west in the coming days



The key will be how far south it goes prior to turning west....after exciting the panhandle
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#233 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:07 am

SoupBone wrote:Why do these GFS runs seem so erratic in motion? And this run is quite a change from its previous. Now an extreme SW Louisiana landfall?


LLC and MLC bounding around one another?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#234 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:07 am

StormLogic wrote:


Euro and GFS getting closer and closer with path, I expect more west in the coming days



Well, not that it can't happen, but it would be going the opposite of the current eastern trend. :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#235 Postby p1nheadlarry » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:10 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
p1nheadlarry wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:12z GFS is not showing any vorticity making it into the GOM until tomorrow at 06z. Ummmmmmmmm, am I see things incorrectly :double:


I get confused by this when I see it. What do you mean? Vorticity is calculated; if there's shear there's vorticity, even if it's not a large quantity. And looking at 850 hPa there is shaded cyclonic vorticity.


The spin in the system, if you look at https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0912&fh=12 you will see a little bit of spin still on the coast of Florida at 0z Wednesday. That just seems a little off to me when considering that the vort chart here is showing most of the energy already off the coast:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8vor.GIF


I see what you're noticing, but there is still vorticity over the ocean. Enthalpy fluxes and ekman convergence still occur even if the local max isn't over the water. The low will go towards the area of largest height falls; whether it's diabatically-driven over the ocean (highest mean integrated virtual temperature of the column) or dynamically-driven over land (shear+friction) similar to what Eric Webb had mentioned remains to be seen.

I think the convection will eventually help it pull south (ie diabatics win); the increased conditional instability will help coalesce vorticity into a smaller region which enhances the diabatic feedback.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#236 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:12 am

Looks like most every major model brings this to hurricane strength (pressure-wise). Could be a doozy for someone.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#237 Postby mcheer23 » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:16 am

UKMET has made a pretty decent west shift. It's right near the TX/LA border
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#238 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:17 am

Pic?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#239 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:20 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
SoupBone wrote:Why do these GFS runs seem so erratic in motion? And this run is quite a change from its previous. Now an extreme SW Louisiana landfall?


LLC and MLC bounding around one another?


Yes, but the Euro and now the GFS show the LLC reforming closer to the MLC on Thursday thus why the intensification from there on.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#240 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:23 am

mcheer23 wrote:UKMET has made a pretty decent west shift. It's right near the TX/LA border


Just a couple of miles west of Holly Beach LA, around 15 miles east of the LA/TX border to be exact :wink:
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