ATL: BARRY - Models

[PTrackerLA]

Turning north and deepening to 989mb at 102 hrs. Looks like Vermilion Parish, LA

Edit: then due west at 108 hours lol, motion seems erratic this run

[NDG]

[Siker]

Yikes on the UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 28.2N 87.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.07.2019 48 28.1N 88.8W 1005 32
0000UTC 12.07.2019 60 27.8N 90.0W 995 43
1200UTC 12.07.2019 72 28.3N 91.6W 982 68
0000UTC 13.07.2019 84 28.6N 92.6W 966 75
1200UTC 13.07.2019 96 29.8N 93.6W 946 82
0000UTC 14.07.2019 108 31.5N 94.2W 975 40
1200UTC 14.07.2019 120 33.2N 94.5W 980 39
0000UTC 15.07.2019 132 34.8N 95.2W 988 28
1200UTC 15.07.2019 144 36.2N 95.7W 994 28

[NDG]

Yikes on the UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 28.2N 87.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.07.2019 48 28.1N 88.8W 1005 32
0000UTC 12.07.2019 60 27.8N 90.0W 995 43
1200UTC 12.07.2019 72 28.3N 91.6W 982 68
0000UTC 13.07.2019 84 28.6N 92.6W 966 75
1200UTC 13.07.2019 96 29.8N 93.6W 946 82
0000UTC 14.07.2019 108 31.5N 94.2W 975 40
1200UTC 14.07.2019 120 33.2N 94.5W 980 39
0000UTC 15.07.2019 132 34.8N 95.2W 988 28
1200UTC 15.07.2019 144 36.2N 95.7W 994 28

That's a good shift west by the UKMET, closer to the GFS.

[MississippiWx]

Yikes on the UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 28.2N 87.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.07.2019 48 28.1N 88.8W 1005 32
0000UTC 12.07.2019 60 27.8N 90.0W 995 43
1200UTC 12.07.2019 72 28.3N 91.6W 982 68
0000UTC 13.07.2019 84 28.6N 92.6W 966 75
1200UTC 13.07.2019 96 29.8N 93.6W 946 82
0000UTC 14.07.2019 108 31.5N 94.2W 975 40
1200UTC 14.07.2019 120 33.2N 94.5W 980 39
0000UTC 15.07.2019 132 34.8N 95.2W 988 28
1200UTC 15.07.2019 144 36.2N 95.7W 994 28

946mb.

[tolakram]

Legacy

[StormLogic]

https://i.imgur.com/UU3hgiF.png

Euro and GFS getting closer and closer with path, I expect more west in the coming days

[SoupBone]

Why do these GFS runs seem so erratic in motion? And this run is quite a change from its previous. Now an extreme SW Louisiana landfall?

[Steve]

OG GFS makes a move toward SE LA and ends up curving up and hitting the Mississippi Gulf Coast. The GFS Legacy always had a known right-bias. Good riddance.

[NDG]

https://i.imgur.com/UU3hgiF.png

Euro and GFS getting closer and closer with path, I expect more west in the coming days

Well, the trend by the GFS and Euro has been to the right, lol.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like the UKMET makes landfall right near Holly Beach, LA and continues on a NNW heading. The intensity is downright alarming.

[LeonardRay]

https://i.imgur.com/UU3hgiF.png

Euro and GFS getting closer and closer with path, I expect more west in the coming days

The key will be how far south it goes prior to turning west....after exciting the panhandle

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Why do these GFS runs seem so erratic in motion? And this run is quite a change from its previous. Now an extreme SW Louisiana landfall?

LLC and MLC bounding around one another?

[SoupBone]

https://i.imgur.com/UU3hgiF.png

Euro and GFS getting closer and closer with path, I expect more west in the coming days

Well, not that it can't happen, but it would be going the opposite of the current eastern trend.

[p1nheadlarry]

12z GFS is not showing any vorticity making it into the GOM until tomorrow at 06z. Ummmmmmmmm, am I see things incorrectly

I get confused by this when I see it. What do you mean? Vorticity is calculated; if there's shear there's vorticity, even if it's not a large quantity. And looking at 850 hPa there is shaded cyclonic vorticity.

The spin in the system, if you look at https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0912&fh=12 you will see a little bit of spin still on the coast of Florida at 0z Wednesday. That just seems a little off to me when considering that the vort chart here is showing most of the energy already off the coast:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8vor.GIF

I see what you're noticing, but there is still vorticity over the ocean. Enthalpy fluxes and ekman convergence still occur even if the local max isn't over the water. The low will go towards the area of largest height falls; whether it's diabatically-driven over the ocean (highest mean integrated virtual temperature of the column) or dynamically-driven over land (shear+friction) similar to what Eric Webb had mentioned remains to be seen.

I think the convection will eventually help it pull south (ie diabatics win); the increased conditional instability will help coalesce vorticity into a smaller region which enhances the diabatic feedback.

[MississippiWx]

Looks like most every major model brings this to hurricane strength (pressure-wise). Could be a doozy for someone.

[mcheer23]

UKMET has made a pretty decent west shift. It's right near the TX/LA border

[stormlover2013]

Pic?

[NDG]

Why do these GFS runs seem so erratic in motion? And this run is quite a change from its previous. Now an extreme SW Louisiana landfall?

LLC and MLC bounding around one another?

Yes, but the Euro and now the GFS show the LLC reforming closer to the MLC on Thursday thus why the intensification from there on.

[NDG]

UKMET has made a pretty decent west shift. It's right near the TX/LA border

Just a couple of miles west of Holly Beach LA, around 15 miles east of the LA/TX border to be exact